This article was first published on November 6, 2020, on November 7, local time in the United States. According to the Associated Press, the U.S. Democratic presidential candidate, Former Vice President Biden won the state of Nevada (6) and Pennsylvania (20), reached 290 electoral votes, won the general election, and will become the 46th president of the United States. This article is fromWeChat Official Account: Understand Knowledge (ID: mingbaizhishi), the title picture comes from Visual China
The results of the U.S. presidential election will soon be announced, and the last few states are still in the process of counting votes. Whether Biden wins the game or Trump’s counterattack wins by a narrow margin depends on the conditions of these states.
The United States does not have an official national unified agency to authoritatively announce election results. So, who is the most authoritative and most accepted by all parties in the announcement of the election results?
When we search for “U.S. Election” or similar keywords, if we carefully observe the real-time results, we will find a small line: “Presidential Election Results Source: The Associated Press”.
Search for the keyword “U.S. General Election”, and the data results will show that they are from AP.
Image source: Google
“The Associated Press” is the well-known news agency “Associated Press”.
From the English point of view, its more accurate name is “Union News Agency”. The Chinese translation is prefixed with the country name to distinguish it from news agencies in other countries.
The Associated Press is the largest news agency in the United States and the world. It is the “first publisher” of the results of the US elections.
Not only Google search, but mainstream American news media, such as National Public Radio (NPR), public television network (PBS), The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, YouTube and other media organizations around the world are all looking forward to it, waiting for the Associated Press to release The final election results.
This tradition has continued for more than 170 years.
Why the Associated Press?
In the first few decades of the promulgation of the US Constitution and the establishment of the federal government, there was no so-called “election day” in the United States.(Election Day).
In other words, the constitution does not specify which day is the day for the election of the president, but in the first paragraph of Article 2:
“Congress shall determine the time for electors to be elected and the date for electors to vote. This date shall be the same day in the United States.”
The time here is the time to elect the elector, not the time to elect the president.
This means that the Constitution gives Congress the power to determine when states establish electors. At the beginning, Congress did not set a specific date, but only gave a deadline. In the 34 days before the deadline, the states can hold elections at any time.
However, in 1845, Congress worried that this practice would allow the earlier voting states to affect the elections of other states. Therefore, Congress passed legislation toThe first Tuesday after a Monday (note, not the first Tuesday in November) is set as the unified national election day.
A bill passed at the second session of the 28th Congress of the United States stipulates a uniform election date across the United States.
Picture source: Library of Congress
The first general election after this bill was introduced was the 1848 presidential election. All states voted on the same day. It was this election that the news media stepped onto the election stage and reported the results of the election for the first time.
Actually, the United States does not have a national election committee to lead and announce the results of the election, so the media can only play this role.
The reason why the media had this function was due to two important things at the time: the invention of the telegraph and the establishment of the Associated Press.
In the 1830s, the telegraph was invented, and long-distance communication became possible;
In the 1840s, the Associated Press was jointly formed by six newspapers including the “New York Herald”, “New York Sun” and “New York Tribune”.
According to “National Geographic” (National Geographic), the reason for the merger was to allow newspapers to share the cost of remote news gathering.
The Associated Press headquarters building at 450 West 33rd Street, New York City, USA.
Picture source: Wikipedia
In the days when the telegraph was first invented, sending a telegram was very expensive. For example, in the 1848 election, the Associated Press used the telegram to collect election results in 30 states at that time, and the telegram fee exceeded $1,000.
At that time, the Associated Press was not the only one who reported the election results. For example, the “Brooklyn Eagle” (Brooklyn Daily Eagle) also accurately reported 1848 Election in 2015, and it was earlier than the Associated Press
Looking at it now, this is more like an accident.
Because in most election years in the second half of the 19th century, due to the use of telegram to collect data and the slow publication of newspapers, the results of the general election were not accurate and complete, and the final winner was often not known until a few days after the election.
The election of 1876 was four months later, and the presidential candidate knew that he had won three days before taking office.
Associated Press can stand out from the crowd, the most important thing is accuracy and objectivity. We know that in order for the results to be transparent, open, and fair, the media that publishes the election results must have no partisan background, and must be fast and accurate.
A typical example is the 1948 election. The Chicago Tribune relied on opinion polls to publish a report that Republican Thomas Dewey (Thomas Dewey) won; the Washington Post also published an article Said: “Dewey Deemed Sure Winner Today” (Dewey Deemed Sure Winner Today).
However, the Associated Press’s vote count shows that the Democrat DuluThe door is far ahead.
The next day, the Associated Press announced Truman’s victory, and the Chicago Tribune and The Washington Post reported errors.
The winning Truman picked up the Chicago Tribune newspaper, and the front page read “Dewey defeated Truman.”
Picture source: Associated Press
In modern times, although the media has become more developed and the people have more and more channels for obtaining information, because the U.S. election is held in various states across the country, niche media are still limited in collecting, collecting, and reporting election results. The Associated Press has accumulated 170 years of experience, and it has unparalleled advantages in terms of accuracy and timeliness.
In the 2016 general election, the Associated Press published an accuracy rate of 99.8% for all campaign results, while the accuracy rate for the presidential and congressional elections reached 100%. At 02:29 a.m. on the second day of the 2016 election, the Associated Press was the first to issue a newsletter announcing Trump’s election as president.
The more important point is that the Associated Press is an organization formed by a combination of multiple media. Its members come from all walks of life, different parties, and different regions, with diverse interests, so it can comply with the principle of objective reporting to the greatest extent. .
Not only the presidential election, the Associated Press will successively announce all the results of the general election, including the president, the two houses of Congress, and the local elections for governors, members of parliament, judges and other positions. More than 7,000 contest winners will be announced.
On November 8, 2016, the U.S. Presidential Election Day, the staff of the Associated Press Television Network worked in the Washington bureau.
Picture source: Associated Press
If there is no accurate data, the Associated Press will not release election results. Lauren Easton, the Associated Press’s director of media relations, (Lauren Easton) said:
“The Associated Press’s campaign announcement is not a prediction or calculation, but an official result.”
The Associated Press will release the results only if it is determined who is the winner, or if there is a huge gap between the votes and the winners and losers are clear.
The role of the Associated Press in the election, as NPR’s Supervising Political editor Arnie Seiper (Arnie Seipel) said:< /p>
“They have a thorough and careful vote counting method when publishing the election results, and they act cautiously. They also have a decision-making platform that uses huge resources to collect and analyze data. Therefore, rely on Associated Press, we can devote more resources to our original reports instead of trying to copy their practices.”
It can be seen that the Associated Press does not simply report the results of the election. They need to organize the vote data of each state and place by themselves, then aggregate, verify, and finally publish it.
So, how does the Associated Press count votes and publish reports?
How does the AP count votes?
Counting election votes is not a black-box operation. The Associated Press has experienced more than 170In 2015, a complete and transparent system for issuing election results has been built.
At the end of this system, there is a huge network of journalists composed of more than 4000 freelance journalists (Stringers) distributed throughout The 50 states in the United States have established long-term trust relationships with local officials and provided the Associated Press with first-hand election data during the general election.
The terminal of this system consists of three types of personnel, namely:
1. More than 800 dedicated ballot entry clerks(vote entry clerk);
2. The Associated Press’s corresponding local campaign publishers in each state (Race callers);
3. A team of professional analysts located in the Washington office (Election Research Team).
Among them, the ballot entry clerk is in close contact with freelance journalists, counting and entering ballot data; the campaign publisher is AP’s Decision Desk (AP’s Decision Desk) Part of them, they check the election results and decide when to announce the winner.
A campaign poster named Michael Fabiano, photoThe film was taken in the Associated Press newsroom.
Picture source: Associated Press
The analyst team assists the campaign publisher to verify the results and provide data support.
These analysts are a full-time team specially hired by the Associated Press. They have begun preparations months before the election and have a deep understanding of the state’s election situation, such as how each region voted in past elections; on election day How many votes were mailed before, and how many people went to polling stations to vote; and whether the district can count all the votes on election day, etc.
Finally, two editors of the Associated Press signed and agreed to publish the election results.
The results of the presidential election were signed and released by the Associated Press Washington bureau chief Julie Pace(Julie Pace).
According to the information released by the Associated Press, the above process can be divided into 5 specific steps:
1. ReceivingCollect the votes data(Collect the votes )
Freelance journalists collect local-level vote data from each local election staff. In addition, other Associated Press reporters collected results from state or county election websites and electronic data channels in various states.
2. Phone notification results (Phone in the results)
When the polling stations began to close, freelance journalists made a phone call to report the vote data to the Associated Press Election Center (AP Election Centers)< /span>Vote Entry Center(Vote Entry Centers), there is a vote entry clerk ready to answer the phone.
3. Enter data (Key in the data)
The ballot entry clerk at the election center enters the number of electoral districts and the number of votes obtained by candidates into the special system of the Associated Press. In addition, the staff of the election center will keep an eye on state and county election websites and enter the results into the same system.
On the election day of November 8, 1932, in the Washington branch, when there was no computer system, only manual statistics were available.
Picture Source: Associated Press
4. Check back and forth, then check (Double check, and check again)
These ballot data are subject to a series of strict checks and verifications. It is about the openness and fairness of the election, and this step cannot be sloppy.
The ballot entry staff will ask the reporter to confirm whether it is correct; if there is a problem with the result, they will ask the reporter to confirm with the election staff.
The campaign publishers, analysts, and the data input system itself will evaluate whether there are any abnormal results and issue warnings.
5. Quickly submit results (Deliver theresults – fast)
As soon as the results are received, the Associated Press will begin to announce the results, sometimes even before the state’s legal voting end time. The election results will be updated throughout the day on the night and the next day of the general election.
Are the results published by the Associated Press reliable?
In the above 5 steps, what should I do if a process fails?
For example, the ballot entry system is malfunctioning, or more serious, power failure?
In this regard, the Associated Press has long taken countermeasures, which are called “failover testing” (Failover Testing), which is Midland The regular work of the society before the election. If one or more computers fail, it will automatically switch to the backup system. If an election center loses power, the system will also seamlessly switch to the backup site.
In recent years, the number of people voting in the field on non-election days has increased year by year. In 2016, more than 40% of voters voted early, voted absent, and voted by mail. Before the 2020 election day, there were more than 90 million voters, and more than half of the voters voted early.
Because the processing and counting time of mailed ballots is longer than voting at polling stations, unless localities can start processing these ballots well before election day, the process will continue for several days or even weeks after election day.
This possible situation this year is the first time in American history, which makes it more difficult for the Associated Press to count and announce election results.
In order to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the election results, the Associated Press has another killer: “AP VoteCast”. This is the new modern voting calculation system adopted by the Associated Press in 2018 in response to changes in the way voters vote.
AP VoteCast was developed in cooperation with the Associated Press and the National Opinion Survey Center of the University of Chicago (NORC). It replaces traditional opinion polls and has Extensive surveys of voters can conduct more accurate and reliable surveys of voters during the epidemic.
AP VoteCast conducted a survey of more than 3,000 voters in the state of Conswick and asked whether the federal government’s response to the new crown epidemic would affect voting. More than 80% said it was an important factor, while 39% said it was the most important factor. The results of this survey may explain why the key swing state of Conswissin finally “turned blue.”
Picture source: WKOW
With the help of this system, on the afternoon of election day in the 2018 midterm elections, the Associated Press’s prediction of the Senate and Governor’s elections was 92% correct.
Furthermore, the AP VoteCast survey of voters’ age, gender, race and ethnic composition, and education level are basically consistent with the results obtained by the US Census Bureau a few months later.
In addition, the Associated Press will also track changes in each state’s legislation and administrative policies, as well as court decisions, because these changes may affect the number of mailed votes in the election.
Of course, for the sake of accuracy, the delay in the broadcast caused by the delay in counting votes is inevitable.
In the 2018 federal senator elections in Arizona, the state suspended voting on election day. Republican Martha McSally(Martha McSally) leads Democrat Gilston Sinema with over 13,000 votes. (Kyrsten Sinema).
However, the Associated Press did not announce the winner immediately, because the analysis team knew that there were still many mailed votes without statistics.
Until 6 days later, 700,000 additional votes were counted, and Sinema won by a narrow margin of 56,000 votes. The Associated Press announcedSinema won.
This is why Trump opposes mailing ballots and encourages voters to vote at polling stations. In his view, the election results were “manipulated” and “polluted”, causing the Republican Party to lose the election.
On November 1, Trump said:
“I think it is terrible that we cannot know the results of the election on the night of the election. It is a very bad thing to allow states to aggregate votes for a long time after the election.”
On November 4, Trump said on Twitter: “No new votes can be counted after election day.”
Picture source: Twitter
However, changes in election methods and this year’s epidemic have made “not knowing the results of the election on the night of the election” become the norm.
On the other hand, the Associated Press’s election results release system is sufficient to ensure that there will be no fraud, fraud, or counting errors.
No matter what the situation is, the Associated Press has always adhered to a cautious attitude and is a good “gatekeeper” of the election. As Sally Buzbee, senior vice president of the Associated Press, (Sally Buzbee) said:
“Of course we want to tell the American people and the world as soon as possible who won the presidential election, but accuracy is paramount.”
As for the announcement of the results of the general election, the Associated Press has always given accurate and reliable answers for 170 years..
In the election of leaders of superpowers, the results are not announced by an official agency, but by a media. Such details and arrangements are the most interesting part of the United States.
Maybe there is a country’s powerful gene hidden in such details?
Reference materials
Katie Robertson. In a Hot Election, the Cool-Headed Associated Press Takes Center Stage. The New York Times, 2020.Nicholas Riccardi. AP Explains: The election result may be delayed . That’s OK. AP, 2020.Sally Buzbee. How The Associated Press Plans to Report The Election Results. Nieman Reports, 2020.Lauren Easton. Understanding the election: Why this year is different.AP, 2020. p>
Amy Mckeever.Counting votes on Election Day has always been complex—and it may be more so in 2020. National Geographic, 2020-10-29. p>
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