This article is from WeChat official account:Ningnanshan (ID: ningnanshan2017) , author: Shenzhen mountains of southern Ningxia, the original title: “RCEP signed – say digression, China, Japan and Asia,” head Figure from: vision China < /span>
Simply talk about RCEP(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, regional comprehensive economic partnership agreement), thinking is more divergent, even some and RCEP It doesn’t matter much in itself.
RCEP was signed through a video conference on November 15, 2020.
First point: As far as a single country is concerned, my country’s biggest breakthrough significance is Japan, RCEP members are 10 Southeast Asian countries + China, Japan, South Korea + Australia and New Zealand:
China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement was signed in 2002;
The Free Trade Agreement between China and New Zealand was signed in 2008;
China-Australia Free Trade Agreement was signed in 2014;
The free trade agreement between China and South Korea was signed in 2015.
In our impression, Australia is a particularly anti-China country, but even Australia has signed a free trade agreement with China. South Korea is also a country where US troops are stationed and is pro-American, but China and South Korea have also signed a free trade agreement.
The only RCEP member is Japan, which has not yet signed a free trade agreement with China. This time RCEP has brought Japan in.
Of course, the greater significance is that turns the point-to-point trade agreement into a network, allowing member states to form a common economic interest, which is beneficial to contain the United States from engaging in an anti-China alliance.
In addition, because RCEP needs to take care and balance the interests of all member states, its terms cannot cover all trade issues between China, Japan and South Korea. Therefore, the China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Area negotiations will continue to advance on the basis of RCEP. A good foundation is already in place. This is beneficial to speeding up the China-Japan-Korea free trade area negotiations.
The second point: China’s official description of RCEP is that RCEP was initiated by 10 ASEAN countries and invited China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, etc. to participate in an agreement led by ASEAN, but it is also a result of China’s active support and direct promotion. , Which means that although China is not the dominant player, it has “made a small contribution”.
But in terms of volume, China’s population and economic aggregate account for more than 50% of RCEP, and the growth rate is still very fast. Regardless of whether RCEP is led by ASEAN or China, In short, the Asia led by Japan no longer exists.
The Japanese people are unwilling to accept the rise of China. It can be seen from a set of data that In the global national favorability survey over the years, Japan has long been the country with the lowest favorability toward China and the highest negative evaluation.
The picture below is a survey conducted by the Pew Research Center in 32 countries around the world in the spring of 2019. Among the 32 countries, Japan’s rate of positive comments on China is only 14%, while the rate of negative comments on China is 32. The highest among all countries, as high as 85%.
Announced in Pew January 2020In the survey, Japan is still the most disgusted country in the world. The picture below is the news reported by ABC(Australian Broadcasting Corporation) in January 2020. The Japanese people’s favorability towards China is still only 14%.
In fact, it’s not just Pew, but also in other polls. The picture below is a survey conducted by the BBC’s 2014 polling agency Globalscan in 23 countries including China. Japan vs. China Only 3% of people rated positively, which was the lowest among all countries, while those rated negatively were as high as 73%, second only to Germany among 23 countries.
Even considering that the Diaoyu Island incident in 2012 greatly affected the Japanese people’s perception of China,
In a poll published by the BBC in October 2020, in the 14 countries covered by the survey (including the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, the United States, South Korea, Spain, Canada, etc.), Japan still has the highest hatred of China, with 86%, which is higher than that of Western white countries such as Canada, Sweden, and Australia.
The Japanese should realize that for Japan, from the beginning of the Meiji Restoration in 1868 to theThe total economic volume surpasses Japan, The 100 most brilliant years in Japan’s history have passed, and are gone forever. As long as China revives, Asian countries will return to where they should be. Japan should recognize and accept this reality. The sooner it recognizes this, the more it will help Japan to accept China-led Asia.
Today Japan is still unwilling to accept the rise of China, and it also places its hopes on the United States. The Nikkei reported on September 26:
Abe met with Trump at Trump Tower in the United States in November 2016 and showed a graph of the situation in China and East Asia to convince Trump. Trump asked: “When and at what rate did China increase its military expenditure?”
Abe replied: “China has increased its military expenditure by about 40 times in the past 30 years. No country in the world has increased (military expenditure) at this rate. .” Trump was very surprised. Abe also cited the number of submarines in China as an example, saying that the “target of these submarines is the US Seventh Fleet operating in the Western Pacific.”
Abe said that this is not only a (to face) problem in Japan, but also a problem in the United States. “I hope to maintain the presence of the United States. “.
It seems that only China’s power surpasses the United States and the United States finally accepts China’s rise, will Japan completely accept the reality of China’s revival.
The third point: neighboring country effect. Query the World Bank database:
In 2019, the total GDP of the United States is the largest in the world at 21.3744 trillion US dollars;
The EU’s total GDP in 2019 is the second in the world at 15.5928 trillion US dollars;
China’s GDP is the third largest in the world in 2019 at 14.3429 trillion US dollars;
In 2019, Japan’s GDP is the fourth in the world at 5.0819 trillion US dollars;
The total GDP of the ten ASEAN countries in 2019 is the sixth US$3.1732 trillion in the world (the fifth in the world is Germany);
The total GDP of South Korea in 2019 is 1.6424 trillion US dollars.
It can be seen that the economic volume of Southeast Asia is actually very small, not as large as Germany, not as large as Japan, not to mention compared with the EU and the United States. The economic volume of ASEAN is only one-fifth of the EU and only the United States. About one-seventh.
But ASEAN is indeed my country’s largest trading partner, and it is also growing fastest.
From January to September 2020, my country’s imports and exports to ASEAN, the EU, the United States, Japan, and South Korea will be RMB 3.38 trillion, RMB 3.23 trillion, RMB 2.82 trillion, RMB 1.61 trillion, and RMB 1.45 trillion respectively. , Increased by 7.7%, 2.9%, 2%, 1.4%, 1.1% respectively. Among them, ASEAN is my country’s largest trading partner, accounting for 14.6% of my country’s total foreign trade.
It is also worth mentioning that Japan and South Korea are both my country’s top five trading partners. This is the “neighboring country effect” mentioned in my previous article. Due to geographical factors, a country and neighboring countries The amount of trade will always be very high.
For example, in the United States, where is the world’s largest export market for the United States in 2019? That is, who buys the most made in America?
China? United Kingdom? Germany? Japan? No, it’s Canada with a population of less than 40 million. So who is second? It’s Mexico. My two neighboring countries buy the most.
The same goes for the European Union. The main trading partners of European countries,Most of them are their neighbors. Eight of France’s top ten export markets in 2019 are European countries, of which Germany ranks first, and the amount is much higher than other countries.
Outside Europe, only the United States ranks second, and China ranks seventh.
Germany is even more exaggerated. In 2019, 13 of the top 15 markets for German exports are European countries. Outside Europe is China and the United States. The United States ranks first and China ranks third.
European countries such as Germany and France, most of the goods are exported to European countries. The above shows the importance of neighboring countries’ markets for a country’s exports.
And China? From January to October 2020, our largest export market is the US 2.4761 trillion yuan, the second largest export market is the European Union 2.1908 trillion yuan, and the third largest export market is ASEAN 2.1087 trillion yuan.
Depending on the export surplus, it is 1,750.5 billion yuan to the United States, 764.57 billion yuan to the EU, and 427.92 billion yuan to ASEAN. The United States and the European Union are the two largest sources of export surpluses, and they are far ahead.
my country has a deficit with Japan and South Korea. From January to October, the deficit was 177.53 billion yuan and 353.18 billion yuan respectively. Yes, the deficit with South Korea is larger than the deficit with Japan.
According to the country, South Korea is my country’s largest importer. Isn’t it unexpected?
RCEP is actually a “neighboring country free trade agreement”. Trade barriers between countries in the region are gradually eliminated. Be careful not to interpret RCEP as a trade agreement between China and 14 other countries, but 15 countries with each other Trade agreement between. Our country exports to country A, and the road from country A to country B will be smoother.
RCEP can increase the growth of regional neighboring countries’ trade and help improve my country’s foreign trade dependence on Europe and the United States. Actually, my country’s foreign trade has not declined during the Sino-US trade war from 2018 to 2020. , Exports continued to grow in 2018 and 2019, and are expected to grow this year. The growth of trade with ASEAN has played a big role.
If the China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement can also be successfully completed, then combined with RCEP, China’s dominant Asian economic circle will be more closely tied up, and any external forces’ efforts to undermine regional peace will be further Containment.
This article is from WeChat official account: Southern Ningxia Mountain (ID: ningnanshan2017) , Author: Shenzhen Southern Ningxia Mountain