This article is from WeChat official account:Chaos University (ID: hundun-university) , author: Guan Tao (Bank global Securities chief economist), the original title: “Guan Tao million words exclusive lecture: Why the yuan rise so much? These are 11 important questions”, the title picture comes from: Visual China
Someone joked that if there are 9 economists in a room, there may be 11 opinions on the exchange rate issue. In fact, different people have different opinions on exchange rate issues and there is no unified answer. So today are some of my personal opinions.
During my usual research and contact with investors and some friends, I learned about issues that everyone may be more concerned about:
First, why should ordinary people care about the RMB exchange rate?
Secondly, why has the RMB appreciated so fast in recent times?
Third, is the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate caused by the increase in trade surplus? After the trade surplus is large, will the RMB appreciate?
Fourth, the renminbi has risen so much recently, what impact does it have on exports? Is it a big influence?
Fifth, does the appreciation of the RMB mean that there are more people selling foreign exchange in the market? Should we sell foreign exchange as soon as possible?