People have only 24 hours a day, and limited attention can be divided into three types: stone, sand and water.
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Editor’s note: Although we have contained the epidemic, there is still no improvement in Europe and America. Social isolation has led to the disappearance of various offline gathering activities in the United States, but this has allowed everyone to have more online leisure time. Consumer Internet companies have begun to compete for limited attention. As an investor, how should we analyze those companies? Once life returns to normal, how can consumer Internet companies continue to thrive? Sarah Tavel, a consumer Internet startup venture capitalist, gave his analysis framework and recommendations for startups. The original text was published on Medium with the title: The Opportunity and Risks for Consumer Startups in a Social Distancing World — A Framework for Consumer Attention.
Making key points:
Stones: events that span a large continuous time block
Sand: micro-events that use attention gaps between or during these time blocks
Water: can cover both events
Social isolation has greatly changed the way we consume time. As all offline parties were cancelled, everyone suddenly had more free time. And consumer Internet companies, new and old, are vying for this time.
As an investor and enthusiast of consumer products, I am very excited about the opportunities represented by this window. But I am also asking myself, what can make a consumer startup stand out? What can make a consumer start-up not only thrive when it is socially isolated, but also thrive even after the isolation is over? The following are my thoughts and some suggestions for founders in the consumer field.
For attention, I would like to introduce a so-called analysis framework of rocks, sand and water
It is said that consumers’ attention is limited, but how should this limited attention be distinguished?
I divide consumers’ attention within a day into three different types of “events” or patterns: events (“stones”) that span a larger continuous time block, and use the attention between or during these time blocks Micro events (“sand”) of force gaps, and events (“water”) that can cover both.
Every day, we use a certain combination of these three (+ rare bubbles) to fill the 24-hour cup, and constantly allocate time to our different options, so as to maximize our dopamine/serotonin, etc. To be released, while fulfilling our responsibilities for work, family and health.
The time slot of stone is the most difficult to arrange in the schedule, so it is also the most difficult to make money. So it really needs value for money. Some stones (for example, TV) have a lot of holes in them, so it will be easier to arrange the time, so multitasking will be easier (for example, when the program is slow, you can check Twitter). Others (such as VR) are more like diamonds, there are no gaps to drill, which will make the choice more difficult.
It’s much easier to find time gaps between sands during the day—for consumers, it’s easier for consumers to squeeze out 30 minutes to watch TikTok than to squeeze out 30 minutes to play “Fortnite”.
I think that words, photos, videos, and games live in a world of stones and sand, while audio lives in water. Water is different from stones and sand. (Note 1) Water does not require the dominant attention and can penetrate some rocks and all sand. For example, things like Discord are ideal water for game stones.
Now, the water in time is audio (so far, music is the most popular audio, see note 2), but it is conceivable that the water in the future may be AR.
It’s not that everyone who uses a product must be in the same mode. For example, for the audience, the talk show may be water, but for the guests of the talk show, a certain degree of attention is required, which is more like a stone.
You can use this framework to brainstorm some consumer business ideas. for example:
Find a “stone” activity and try to think about how to turn it into a “sand” activity. For example, books→blog→microblog, movies/TV→short videos, etc.
Or try to come up with a “stone” activity and think about what kind of “water” can go with it. For example, exercise → Aaptiv (audio fitness app). Game → Discord (game chat software), etc.
Social isolation has shattered offline stones, creating a window of opportunity for consumer startups.
If ordinary consumers’ cups were filled with stones, sand and water before, the way they mix them has now changed. Social isolation has shattered offline stones, and consumer digital products will fill this gap. You can have a Netflix party with your friends instead of going to the movies. You will use Houseparty or Facetime or at home to safely zoom video with friends, rather than risk going to restaurants or friends’ houses. Most (if not all) existing social apps have reached record levels of engagement.
In other words, rock time slots (including the hardest of all rock time slots: real-time, synchronized rock time slots) are more accessible than ever.
However, some investors in the 2C field are worried about whether the current fire of these early-stage consumer companies is just a false fire, after all, the absence of stones offline is only temporary. Then?
We all want that day to come earlier, so that everyone can spend time with others in real life without fear and without hesitation. Once such a day comes, who can win more than 15 minutes of water will become more competitive, especially for those who experience the digital version of the app. How can you ensure that after everyone ends social distancing, they will stick to your stuff?
Seize the present moment, but also look for opportunities to gracefully downgrade the stone to the experience of sand or water.
If you are the founder of entrepreneurship in the consumer sector and are thinking about the positioning of the company after the end of social isolation, I have two suggestions for consideration:
First of all, we must use this time window to build momentum, develop the business to the scale required to form a network effect, and prepare for success. If you have formed a virtuous circle, you will have the greatest chance of winning when you wrestle your wrist with your offline opponent in the future. in other words, Grab this time window!
How to catch it? I may regret the advice I gave you later: if you think you have found a product/market match (the weekly user retention rate is close to 30% or more as proof), consider spending some money to acquire users to accelerate growth. Help you make good use of this time window. Don’t get me wrong-this cannot be the main growth tool. Once you see that organic growth is still your dominant growth direction, this can only be a temporary strategy, but if it is the moment when the opportunity is not to be missed, as long as it is done rationally and self-disciplinedly, I will not Mind breaking the sacred rules.
Secondly, if you start with “stones” as a unique experience, then try to enjoy them, but in the end those stones will become more and more difficult to obtain.
When the moment (the end of social distancing) is inevitable, you must be prepared for success by thinking about how you can gracefully degrade to a “sand” or “water” experience. In this way, even if users can no longer contribute “stone” time, at least you still have a place to interact with them.
Now we still don’t have to worry about it, but you have to pay close attention. For example, Instagram Live is more like a “stone” experience, but other things on Instagram are more like sand (and often sand!).
Although social isolation limits our ability to spend time together in the real world, it does not eliminate our need as human beings, the need to connect with each other, to feel a sense of belonging, and to find forums where we can participate.
What kind of rocks or sand will appear during this time? What kind of water will appear? We may see the emergence of a new type of water, the special properties of this water may be able to penetrate into certain types of stones.
Note 1: Interestingly, as my friend Malay Gandhi pointed out, the reason why water is different is that it is a positive sum (as opposed to a zero-sum game of attention between stones and sand) )of.
Note 2: I might as well take the risk to expand this metaphor a bit. Sometimes water (such as audiobooks and podcasts) is more like a viscous liquid. It requires porous stones (such as commuting or exercise) to gain time, otherwise , It is more like the stone itself, and must compete with stronger stones and sand for attention.
Translator: boxi.