The “winner takes all” era is over, and entrepreneurs are ready to seize opportunities.
Editor’s note: This article is from the WeChat public account “Shenrancaijing” (ID: shenrancaijing), author | Jin Junyi Su Qi, editor | Wei Jia.
2021 has officially started. In this year, what keywords will Internet giants have that they can’t get around? What are the new opportunities for startups that are worth trying? Today, Shenran sent a copy of the “Internet Struggle Guide”.
For giants, antitrust is the primary issue they have to face. According to analysis by industry insiders, billion-dollar giants such as BAT, ByteDance, and Meituan may all be involved in related cases and are the most affected. It is undoubtedly Alibaba. Specifically, the antitrust gun will focus on the use of monopoly status and malicious mergers and acquisitions. The industry may be the first to bear the brunt of finance and cross-border e-commerce.
The giants will focus on defending the city, and the waist companies may boldly attack and create several waves of listing. Short videos, community group buying, and Guochao’s new consumer brands are considered to be key industries that will be IPO in 2021. In addition, the science and technology innovation board is also high hopes.
Some opportunities for innovation and entrepreneurship will also breed. There are opportunities in industries such as AI technology, community group buying, new consumer brands, and live broadcast delivery in subdivisions. Brand exports and sinking the market are the directions that entrepreneurs can focus on. .
However, in 2021, whether it is a giant, a unicorn, or a startup, we must be prepared to guard against black swans.
The troubles of the giants
With three shots in a row, the giants finally realized that the era of Internet antitrust has begun in the second half of 2020.
More than one industry insider said that 2021 will be a 10-year turning point in the history of China’s Internet anti-monopoly, with the purpose of preventing the disorderly expansion of capital. “For the giants, 2021 will be a year of trauma.” Fang Xingdong, founder of the Internet Lab, told Shen Ran that the era of laissez-faire is over and China’s Internet has officially entered a new era of rebuilding norms and restructuring order. It is a historical turn that requires a painful process of adaptation and adjustment. The larger the giant, the greater the impact and the greater the pain.
On November 10, 2020, the 11-year-old “Anti-Monopoly Law” entered the first “overhaul”. The State Administration for Market Regulation issued the “Guidelines for Anti-Monopoly in the Field of Platform Economy (Draft for Comment)” (hereinafter referred to as ” Guide”), restricted transactions (choose one of the two), sales below cost (burning money in exchange for traffic), differential treatment (Internet cracking), tying or additional unreasonable trading conditions (mandatory binding freight insurance, etc.), Or be recognized as a monopoly.
A request for comments made the share prices of many Internet giants fall in response, but it did not seem to serve as a warning. The giants are busy making the community group buying basket business the next shared bicycle.
On December 14, the State Administration of Market Supervision imposed a fine of 500,000 yuan on the three acquisitions of Alibaba Investment’s acquisition of Intime Department Store, China Reading Group’s acquisition of Xinli Media, and Fengchao’s acquisition of China Post Smart Delivery.
This is the first time that the State Administration of Market Supervision has imposed centralized administrative penalties on companies involved in the implementation of the VIE structure for illegal implementation. This is clearly stated in the “Guide”. And a large number of Internet leading companies happen to be the main types of companies that adopt the VIE architecture.
In addition, the State Administration for Market Regulation also stated that it is reviewing the merger of the two major game live broadcast platforms Huya and Douyu facilitated by Tencent in October 2020 and other issues involving the VIE structure. Concentration of business operators declare cases.
This is not the end. On December 24, according to news from Xinhua Viewpoint, the State Administration for Market Regulation, based on the report, filed an investigation into Alibaba Group Holdings Co., Ltd. for suspected monopolistic conduct such as “choosing one over the other”. On December 29, China Economic Weekly reported that Meituan was subject to antitrust lawsuits due to the cancellation of the Alipay channel.
In Fang Xingdong’s view, there will be more actions in 2021. The three BAT, Bytedance and Meituan giants such as billions of dollars may all have related cases. The same is true of Wang Ran, CEO of Yuemeng Technology. The scope of the Internet anti-monopoly law will not be too large or limited to a few Internet giants. The industry may be the first to bear the brunt of finance and cross-border e-commerce.
“The giants will rectify if they can rectify”, but Wang Chao, the founder of Wenyuan Think Tank, further added that anti-monopoly guns will focus on the use of monopoly position and malicious mergers and acquisitions, and even the disclosure of market share of giants The aspect is no longer high-profile. Liu Yuanju, a researcher at the Shanghai Institute of Finance and Law, said that it is possible to adjust the blocking of entries between Taobao, Weibo and WeChat platforms.
“These actions will not disappear after the anti-monopoly, but they will converge.” Jianming Capital’s vice president Zhou Wenjing’s view is slightly pessimistic.
“Anti-monopoly will run through the entire year of 2021, and it won’t be a gust of wind. The relevant giants need to play 12 points.” Wang Chao said that the most affected by the anti-monopoly law is undoubtedly Alibaba. An industry insider told Shenzhen Ranindustry?
As Kuaishou submitted the prospectus, ByteDance launched the listing plan. The short video field is recognized as a key industry for IPOs in 2021, and the community group buying and Guochao’s new consumer brand in the fire in 2020 have also been recognized by some investors as They are the seed players in the 2021 listing wave, and there are companies that have settled down in the last round of competition in the business wave, and they may also seize the opportunity to go public in 2021.
Chen Jie, the managing partner of Celtic Ventures Asia, judged that the window period for this round of listing is 2-3 years, and the popularity should continue in 2021. Of course, the window period is a double-edged sword for listed companies. The advantage is that the window period allows companies to raise more money, while the disadvantages will be manifested after the market environment is calm. The stock price will fall relatively large, and even experience upside down.
Xinghan Capital’s founding partner Yang Ge is optimistic about the Sci-tech Innovation Board. He said that the science and technology innovation board has ushered in a big explosion in 2020, and this hot trend will continue in 2021. “The science and technology innovation board itself is a very important tool and channel for activating the capital market. The middle and early primary markets are going through the process of deleveraging in the past two years. The front end is deleveraging, and the back end must open up the channel, so as to activate the market. Capital flow increases confidence in the capital market.”
He believes that the future of the Sci-tech Innovation Board will point in two major directions. The first is smart manufacturing and new infrastructure that is in the early stages of construction, including robots, chips, and hardware. The second is biomedicine and general health, especially biomedical technologies such as vaccines and anticancer drugs. Technologies range from gene detection to gene editing and gene therapy. With rapid development, related enterprises will usher in great development.
But it is undeniable that these two industries have the characteristics of long R&D time and long commercial recovery cycle. In the early and mid-to-early stages, R&D is the main focus, with products as a supplement, and the business model is relatively lagging. For these companies, more policies and capital guidance are needed for rapid development, and the science and technology version has played a key role in promoting.
However, in Wang Chao’s view, it is difficult for the 2021 Sci-tech Innovation Board to reproduce the hot phenomenon after the opening of the market in 2020, because several relatively good targets have already been listed, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board may enter a stable period.
Where does the entrepreneur 2021 point?
In the alternate operation of long and short cycles, entrepreneurial opportunities always exist. In fact, once the public’s viewThe traffic platforms in the field are all doing the god-making movement of the head anchor. In 2021, they will be differentiated and cooperate with different vertical industries, such as second-hand luxury goods trading, maternal and child industries.
3. Consumption (including community group buying and new consumer brands)
A major change in C-end consumption in 2020 is that consumption habits shift to online and economical and practical, which can be seen from the rise of low-cost categories such as food and beverage, beauty and skin care in the consumer track in 2020.
Yang Ge observed that there will be excessive competition in the Guochao brands and the food and beverage industry in 2020. The tide may ebb in 2021, and there will be a sinking trend at the same time. Increase derivative services, etc.
Zhou Wenjing is relatively pessimistic about the consumption trend in the next year. She reminded consumer product brands that they must be calm when smashing traffic. Consumer product companies actually did repurchase in the first 10 years, and they have pricing power and bargaining power until the end.
The hot community group buying and private domain traffic in 2020 have essentially changed the sales channels and structure of many companies, as well as the supply chain and logistics. “In 2020, most of the traditional distribution models of enterprises will still stay in the offline channels of direct sales and agency marketing. If these companies do not transform, they may face elimination. Only a small number of companies will respond in 2020, and they will continue to evolve in 2021.” Yang Song said.
He judges that community group buying will continue to be popular in 2021. Grassroots dealers may learn the traffic gameplay of community group buying, complete the transformation themselves, achieve industrial upgrading, and avoid monopoly .
4. Sink the market
The middle-aged and elderly population and the sinking market are the parts that must be mentioned.
Zhou Wenjing saw that in the past 10 years, Chinese Internet social products were designed for young people in first- and second-tier cities. In fact, middle-aged people have gradually developed the habit of paying online after experiencing the baptism of the mobile Internet era. Social needs exist but have been ignored, especially when the Internet opens up the age of the elderly, this is even a business that can be done for ten or twenty years.