The return on investment is 12 times, and the return on investment in Xinli Media is only three times.
Editor’s note: This article is from WeChat public account” “Net” (ID: China-Venture)The media is like Sany, the author Shen Yifei.
Undoubtedly, after reviewing history for many years, “Where is the devil’s coming to the world” is the most intense color in the summer of 2019.
Since the official release on July 26, there has been a record of breaking the circle of friends while the market is expected to reach 4.48 billion.
Excellent domestic animation is scarce
Since 2014, the domestic animated film market has grown rapidly. In 2015, after the domestically produced “Journey to the West” (hereinafter referred to as “The Return of the Great Stories”) won the 957 million yuan box office, “Who will be the next big saint” became a fixed topic. At the same time, capital also keenly smelled the changes in the market, and major companies rushed into the game.
A few months after the release of “The Great Saints”, Light Media announced a high-profile announcement to establish the Color House Image and invest in 13 animation companies. Aiqiyi, Penguin, and NetEase anime have all piled up to invest in domestic animation projects. But in stark contrast to the capital fever, most of the domestic animations that are time-consuming, cost-intensive, labor-intensive and earnest to do are not able to find a relatively reliable profit path. The “Big World” box office was only 2.63 million, and the “Great Protection Law” box office was only 88 million. Some articles are even more blunt: 95% of domestic animation is not profitable.
It can also be seen from the data of the film project that in the past three years, the animated film has continued to cool down. The animated film created in 2018 was only 131, a 17% decrease from 2017 and a 28% decrease from 2016.
*Data Source: Sanwen Entertainment
After returning from DashengThere are only 4 domestic animated movie box-offices with more than 400 million, which are “Big Fish Sea Bream”, “Bear Infest: Metamorphosis”, “Bear Infest: Original Age”, “White Snake: Origin”. Among the 39 films released in 2016, only the big fish jellyfish had a box office of over 400 million. Of the 38 films released in 2018, only the animated film “Bears: Metamorphosis” has a box office of over 100 million.
Analysis of the average data for three years shows that the probability of exploding an animated movie is 2.6%. If the bear is not affected by the mature IP, the new IP will be used and become a burst. The probability of a movie is about 8.8 ‰, and the probability of winning a lottery ticket is almost the same.
How much can the “Chinese Lottery” bring in?
The public information shows that the company’s production companies are: Horgos Color Bars Film and Television Co., Ltd., Cocoa Bean Animation Film Co., Ltd., October Culture Media Co., Ltd. Distribution company: Beijing Light Film Co., Ltd. Light Media (300251.SZ) is a wholly-owned optical film company and a shareholder of Color Bar, Cocoa, and October Culture.
According to the announcement of Light Media on July 30th:
The company participated in the production and distribution of the film “Where is the devil’s coming to the world” as of 24:00 on July 29, 2019, the box office score has exceeded RMB 899 million, exceeding the company’s most recent fiscal year audited 50% of the operating income of the consolidated financial statements. The company’s revenue from the film’s revenue (currently box office receipts) ranged from approximately RMB 203 million to RMB 243 million.
According to Cat’s latest forecast of the total box office of 4.48 billion, the 4.48 billion box office may bring revenue to the media: about 1 billion to 1.2 billion (see table below).
18 years of light’s main business income is -358 million, net profit of 1.366 billion yuan, profits mainly from investment income , that is, the proceeds from the sale of Xinli Media’s equity.
Although the absolute value of the profit brought to the light media may not be comparable to the investment income of the company’s sale of Xinli Media, we have a return on investment of 12 from the perspective of the return on funds. Times, and the return rate of investing in Xinli Media is only three times (the investment period of both projects has more than 4 years, regardless of the time cost).