Source｜Really called Lu Jun(ID: zhenjiaolujun0426)
Author｜Really called Lu Jun’s team
Head Image｜Visual China
This year is a particularly special year in the history of the Spring Festival. Many workers insist on returning to their hometowns for the holidays, and some choose to stay behind for the New Year. The first-tier cities during the Spring Festival this year are not as empty as in previous years.
According to the big migration data of Baidu Maps, from February 1st to 7th, 2021, the scale of national migration decreased by 49.7% year-on-year in the same period of the lunar calendar in 2020 and 50.8% year-on-year in the same period of the lunar calendar in 2019. Passenger flow during the Spring Festival in 2019 and 2020 Reached a peak of 3 billion, and this year’s scale is only 1.5 billion.
Among them, Beijing and Tianjin, which are affected by the epidemic in the north, have the highest proportion of returnee population decline.
2021 can be said to be the least crowded Spring Festival travel season, and it is almost also the most dull great migration in recent decades.
However, to a certain extent, the Spring Festival Transport Festival can also be said to be a barometer of population mobility in China. It can be said that the emigration place and emigration place of the Spring Festival travel are connecting two different Chinas. One end is a developed city with a high concentration of economic resources, and over there is a shrinking city with a large outflow of population.
Through Baidu’s annual population migration heat map, we have personally felt the surging tide of this great population migration. At the same time, we have also seen this Spring Festival, the population flow between cities has begun to become a little different.
01
This Spring Festival, Shanghai is no longer hollow.
February 10 is the day before the holiday starts. Through the migration big data provided by Baidu, we have seen the main destinations of Shanghai’s popular migrant population this year. In terms of city level, the top three are Suzhou, Nantong, and Yancheng. . In terms of province level, they are Jiangsu, Anhui and Zhejiang.
Of course, some people leave Shanghai, and some people come to Shanghai for the New Year. On February 10, the major cities of Shanghai moved into Suzhou, Jiaxing, and Hangzhou, while the provinces were Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui.
Shanghai’s response is relatively balanced, realizing a true Yangtze River Delta pattern, and Zhejiang and Jiangsu are very healthy to absorb in both directions.
Affected by the return-home policy, Shanghai’s Spring Festival this year is no longer “hollowed”. It is important to know that Shanghai has a migrant population close to 10 million, making it the city with the largest migrant population among large cities in China.
Of the more than 9.7 million floating population, nearly 70% chose to celebrate the Chinese New Year locally. This year’s Spring Festival in Shanghai is no longer empty. Most people chose to stay in this city for the New Year, which also shows the charm of Shanghai. And convenience.
02
The difference is that the population flow in Guangdong Province is too great.
Judging from the data provided by Baidu Maps, whether it is a popular destination for moving out or moving in, Guangdong Province ranks first in the country and is far ahead.
This shows that unlike Shanghai, The “two-way flow” in Guangdong Province is very dense. On the one hand, this city is attracting a large population of people, and at the same time, Guangdong people are also the most migrant workers. One of the provinces.
On February 10, the first day of the Spring Festival holiday, Guangdong Province’s migrant population accounted for about 15% of the country’s total population, while the number of people who migrated in was also about 12%.
Source: Kunming Property Market
It is worth mentioning that Shenzhen, in addition to absorbing users in Guangdong Province, also absorbs a large amount of labor from inland cities. In other words, the overall strength of the manufacturing industry in the Pearl River Delta has absorbed a lot of labor from across provinces.
Then spread out the movement of such a crowd into a map:
You will see the highest concentration in the entire Pearl River Delta, including Guangzhou, Shenzhen and even the surrounding areas of Dongguan. In other words, the Pearl River Delta economic circle needs too much foreign labor, and the talent pool urgently needs blood transfusions from surrounding cities.
This also constitutes the relative openness of the current urban landscape of Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and the unlimited restrictions on talents, household registration, and housing qualifications are also based on this.
In addition, the threshold for settlement in Shenzhen is much lower than that of Beijing and Shanghai, and it has been greatly liberalized in recent years. Therefore, the registered population of Shenzhen has grown rapidly. Among this part of the registered population, a large part of the registered population also settled in Shenzhen after working. graduate.
At present, Shenzhen is still the youngest city among first- and second-tier cities, with a high proportion of working-age population.
So why the Pearl River Delta Economic Circle is able to take off, the high-speed rail and expressway network here are the densest, and the average age of the population is the lowest. These are all bottom-level reasons.
03
Look at the map of migration during the Spring Festival, pay special attention to those popular cities where the population is moving.
From these data on population migration, we can see the fundamentals of one city after another. The more population that flows in during the Spring Festival, the more it proves that the more people flow out.
The emigration of these cities did not happen overnight, but there have been signs of population outflow since 2017.
Source: Urban Empire
Buying a house in these cities, especially those who invest in real estate, must be very careful, because they are most likely to be called “shrinking” cities.
From 2000 to 2010, among the more than 650 administrative cities in China, the population of 180 cities was decreasing. In the city density map, you can see that nearly 1/3 of the countriesThe population of the land area is decreasing. In terms of the street pattern, the population of more than 900 street offices is decreasing.
Behind the migration of the population during the Spring Festival, it shows that the spatial relationship between the first-tier cities and the second-tier cities is becoming more and more fragmented. The second-tier cities want to reap the demographic dividend from the first-tier cities, in addition to planning breakthroughs and knock-offs. Robbing people with gongs and drums is actually quite difficult.
In other words, during the Spring Festival travel period, the cities with the largest population migration and the largest proportion of cities, if not for the two-way flow like Guangzhou and Shenzhen, are less attractive to people.
04
Finally, let’s look at a picture. This is a picture of the migration of popular cities across the country during the Spring Festival. It is likely to say that this is one thing: all individuals who migrate are voting with their feet.
If you take a closer look, the map of popular cities across the country is similar to the map of the top 50% of China’s GDP.
Yes, A large number of people moved out during the Spring Festival travel season, indicating that the city has a strong ability to absorb people. Once there is a flow of people, it actually means the direction of the capital industry flow. .
The “home” route before the Spring Festival mainly extends from economically developed areas to underdeveloped areas, while the return journey is the opposite.
The most representative origins of the regions they correspond to are Beijing, the Pearl River Delta, and the Yangtze River Delta; the most representative destinations are the Sichuan-Chongqing region in the west, and Henan, Hunan, Hubei, and Anhui in the center. Wait.
The “2020 Spring Festival Travel Report” also shows this key conclusion. The top 10 cities in the country before the Spring Festival are: Zhoukou, Fuyang, Shangrao, Ganzhou, Maoming, Shangqiu, Huanggang, Xinyang, Hengyang, Zhanjiang.
The above-mentioned cities are all third- and fourth-tier cities, three in Henan, two in Jiangxi, and two in Guangdong. They are all well-known labor export provinces in my country.
Source: China Business News
This year’s Spring Festival, those young people who have taken root outside will not only not go home for the Spring Festival themselves, but also bring their parents over for a “reverse Spring Festival.”
Then the population outflow from these cities will intensify in the future. For these areas, the danger of population loss has just begun.
05
Population inflow is a key factor in determining the direction of housing prices in a city. Where the population flows, the more resources (including currency) will inevitably be, the more prosperous the region will be, and the corresponding real estateThe demand for production is bound to be more.
Conversely, from the return of the population, the real estate prospects of cities in the Midwest and Northeast are uncertain. The real estate market in these cities is at risk. The migration of a large number of people to work proves that government resources have not invested. To the city.
At the same time, there is still a danger in such cities, especially after the high-speed rail runs through the whole country, it is hard to say whether it will drive the opening and development of the areas along the route, but it will worsen the trend of population flow to resource-intensive areas.
Although with the economic development, the gap between big cities and small cities is constantly being smoothed, some gaps still exist.
According to the data provided by the Ministry of Commerce this year, there are as many as 48 million people staying behind during the Chinese New Year.
Starting from this year, so many people are willing to choose to start the Chinese New Year in situ, and the trend of reverse Spring Festival will be further intensified in the future, and the division between cities is bound to raise another class.