This article is from WeChat official account:Yingshang Cloud Think Tank (ID: sydcxy2014) , author: universe small detachments, title figure from the visual China
The epidemic has stabilized. Is the road ahead? At the beginning of the commercial real estate halftime, the growth momentum is inseparable from in-depth observation, understanding and application of regions, cities, business circles, and customer groups.
For this reason, Yingshang Cloud Think Tank conducts cross-analysis based on the performance of various regions, tier-level cities, typical cities, typical business districts, and types of projects during the epidemic period, combined with data dimensions such as increase in inventory, passenger flow, business format, and brand. Find a new cut in the front road.
“Which areas are your “competitive places” after the epidemic has passed the test 丨WIN DATA Research” uses 2 pictures to clearly present the commercial recovery map of 7 major regions and 5 major tier cities.
Central China, the epicenter of the epidemic, is under pressure. Eastern China and North China have benefited from a large consumer base, high consumption levels, and leading consumption concepts, and there is less pressure for business recovery.
South China, Northwest, and Southwest are less affected by the epidemic, shopping malls have small fluctuations in passenger flow, but the overall saturation is high, and the pressure of commercial recovery is greater; the pressure of recovery in the Northeast is the least, but the overall commercial development level is at a “low level” “.
Looking at the level of division, the consumption level of commercial fourth-tier and lower cities is low, and the speed of commercial evolution is slow. At the same time, as the population gradually “returns” to higher-tier cities after the epidemic, the commercial recovery pressure is greatest.
From the above, it is not difficult to see: After the epidemic, the battleground for commercial real estate developers and brands remains the same”list-paddingleft-2″ style=”list-style-type: square;”>
Mid-end shopping malls account for 70%. Brands have a high degree of homogeneity and fierce competition, which requires “freshness” to stick to consumers.
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Located in mature business districts accounted for 66.2%, while emerging business districts accounted for only 6.2%.
Newly transferred into the brand format distribution, apparel (accounting for 24%), Fashion boutique (accounting for 18%), casual dining (accounting for 11% ), the hottest.
Focus on the TOP100 brands with the largest number of newly-tuned introductory stores in Shanghai Shopping Center. 87 of them are the top 10% brands in the “Brand Special Evaluation System” of Winner’s Big Data.
Among them, there are 67, 64, and 59 rental premium brands, stable brands, and top brands respectively; 40 leading brands; and only 4 high-potential brands.
This reflects that Shanghai shopping malls are generally cautious about new brands entering the market. Compared with the brand’s expansion capability and traffic-driven effect, it pays more attention to the brand’s operating capabilities, long-term stable operating capabilities, and industry influence.
The scene shifted from the magic capital to the imperial capital, and the Beijing stock mall adjusts and modifies the blockbuster drama, simultaneous drama in 2019Part of the plot in 2020 is revealed.
Among typical shopping malls in Beijing, there are fewer than 40 projects with more than 100 brand adjustments in 2019, and projects with more than 50 adjustments account for 75%. The overall adjustment intensity is slightly lower than that of Shanghai.
Which malls like “toss” most?
Through big data, we can summarize the following characteristics: the big brother of the market, the “veteran” mall; the Chaoyang District mall with the most “drenched” consumers; backed by listed developer groups, chain-type malls.
From the perspective of format adjustments, Beijing Shopping Center:
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I am most keen to adjust the retail format, and the proportion of retail brands imported and exported exceeds 50%. And the proportion of transferred out>The proportion of transferred in shows a downward trend;
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The development of catering, children’s parent-child, cultural and sports entertainment, and cross-border collection stores is improving, and the proportion of transfers >Recall the proportion;
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The development of life services is stable, and the proportion of transfers is slightly larger than that of transfers.
Which brands are “good partners” for Beijing Stock Mall?
2019In 2015, Beijing Shopping Center had a total of more than 5,000 new entry stores, involving more than 3,000 brands, and 72.8% of the brands were transferred to one shopping center. High-frequency brands (Appears more than 5 times) accounts for less than 5%.
Besides the well-known brands that everyone is familiar with, what are the “exceptions”? These brands may better reflect the new trend of adjustments.
The digital natives “like the new and dislike the old” under the reshuffle of the epidemic, mall adjustments are becoming more frequent
The epidemic is shuffled, and the digital natives “like the new and dislike the old”, and mall adjustments are becoming more frequent.
“Live! There are 1100+ stocks here. In “New Ways”, Yingshangyun think tank explored the following 3 questions:
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In the future, which categories and brands can better help the stock mall realize asset appreciation?
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What are the pain points and targeted measures for mall at different stages of development?
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In the era of frequent “black swan” incidents, which adjustment method is more effective ?
Faced three questions, “Youth mall”(opening for 1~3 years), “Youth mall” (opening for 4~6 Years), “Middle-aged mall” (opening 7-9 years), “Old-age mall” (opened for 10 years and above), showing different preference characteristics.
“Youth mall” play experience, “Middle-aged and elderly mall” emphasizes feelings
“Youth mall”: It has a short opening time, and prefers to introduce experiential consumption formats that focus on attracting traffic, such as catering, children’s parent-child, cultural and sports entertainment, etc., and the brand volume of open and close stores has a relatively high difference;
“Middle-aged and elderly mall”: After thousands of trials and a long survival time, it prefers to introduce retail, life services, cross-border collection stores and other “scene-style” retail formats that focus on performance improvement, and focus on emotional links.
“Youth mall” provides deep service, “Middle-aged and elderly mall” introduces new ideas
“Youth mall”-hot pot, barbecue/teppanyaki, children’s services, children’s education, cross-border experience stores, supermarkets, beauty health, medical and health, entertainment and leisure, the brand volume of open and close stores has a high proportion of difference, The focus of the adjustment is to create a social atmosphere and extend the breadth of services.
“Middle-aged and elderly mall”-compound catering, light meals, casual catering, Chinese catering, children’s retail, lifestyle collections, sports, culture and art, and open and closed stores have a relatively high proportion of brands. The focus of adjustment is The tonality of the place is improved, leading the new lifestyle.
“youth mall” art, “middle-aged and elderly mall” high coldness
“Youth mall” follows the literary style. Categories such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang cuisine, Northwest cuisine, bookstores and book bars are showing a larger upward trend, while categories such as KTV, Internet cafes, video games, and children’s photography are showing a larger downward trend.
The “middle-aged and elderly mall” is full of coldness. Categories such as beauty, luxury goods, and daily necessities collection stores are showing a greater upward trend, while categories such as early education, luggage and leather goods, and Korean cuisine have a greater downward trend.
In contrast, the former prefers to introduce high-potential brands and traffic brands, focusing on “net-sense drainage; the latter introduces rent-contributing brands to enhance the “texture”, rent increase and asset appreciation are both correct.
“Youth mall” sticks to the first store in the region, and “middle-aged and elderly mall” has many first stores in the world
From the perspective of the first store level introduced by shopping malls at different development stages, the “middle-aged mall” prefers to introduce the first store in the world/Asia and the first store in the country/mainland shopping mall; while the “youth mall” prefers to introduce the region/ The first store in the city.
In the future, will shopping malls adjust to introduce emerging brands’ first stores, or mature brands’ first stores?
The “middle-aged and elderly malls” with strong operating capabilities, fashion-leading and located in the core business district, have strong brand incubation capabilities and are even better at escorting the first stores of emerging brands.
The “youth mall” that is still in the incubation period and is located in the new business district has a weak ability to control the first store. Therefore, it is necessary to carefully control the ratio between the first store of emerging brands and the first store of mature brands with endorsement.
Mall “Gong Dou” in city-level commercial districts has been upgraded, and parent-child, entertainment, and life service formats have penetrated strongly
According to Winshang Big Data statistics, there are 172 shopping centers in 19 typical first- and second-tier cities in municipal business districts(commercial area ≥50,000 square meters)Medium, over 30% of the projects have been in operation for more than 10 years.
Rejuvenating existing assets and activating young power are the “exports” jointly sought by the city-level shopping malls under “high pressure”.
Retail and catering are under pressure, and profitability becomes the primary test point
From the perspective of the adjustment of various business formats, retail and catering businesses that rely more on store location drainage are on the one hand bearing high rents and on the other hand facing difficulties in operating failures, especially under pressure, and all are showing a downward trend.
In the city-level shopping mall with fierce market competition and large-scale soil, continuous optimization of the on-site business format brand structure is the “basic operation” for grabbing passenger flow. During the adjustment process, there are also different brands of different business formats. Think carefully”.
In general, brands with strong operating and profitability are the key targets introduced by city-level commercial district malls. For the retail format that is responsible for performance, the transfer rate of rent premium brands is higher; the transfer opportunities of cultural, sports, entertainment, and catering rent premium brands are also greater.
The logic of the adjustment is as follows: sportswear, beauty makeup, Chinese-style simple meal “high-frequency facial brushing”
Many new players have emerged in various popular tracks, from tea, drink, coffeeCoffee, baked desserts, go to parent-child restaurants, VR experience halls, capital sought after, the explosion of each category, gave birth to a batch of new brands into the game.
In the core city-level business districts, we have always sought refinement instead of more.
Sportswear dominates the screen, high-end clothing frequently enters the game
The more and more “tide” sportswear matches the city-wide customer base targeted by the city-level business district mall. Whether it is a strong listed company brand or a fast-rising new sportswear brand, it is gradually Become the front office of the city-level commercial district mall. Li Ning/China Li Ning, FILA/FILA FUSION, and lululemon have increased the number of stores.
Picture Source/FILA FUSION
Digital and beauty are concentrated, and the layout of luxury goods is accelerated
The new middle class has the right to speak on the traffic of the city-level malls. Under the demands of a better life, retail brands that cater to new lifestyles have become standard, such as DJI, which has an innovative technology experience, and the Jiumu Sundries Company, which has captured the control of stationery. “Blind Box Fever” by Bubble Mart.
Picture Source/Bubble Mart
Lightweight, party-oriented catering wins office customers
Municipal business districts often gather office crowds. Lightweight work meals and catering brands suitable for business gatherings have won the hearts of city-level business district malls and have become up-regulated hot spots, such as special hot pot Coucou, Sichuan cuisine Taier Laozi Pickled cabbage fish, casual snacks Agan Guokui, dear Guobao you, Chinese Jane (fast) meal and Fu Lao noodles, Xiaoman handmade noodles.
Turn on the “knowledge-based” baby-walking mode, and various trainings become popular
At present, parents have higher requirements on the quality and qualifications of children’s parent-child brands. Choosing a head brand is a key consideration factor when introducing children’s parent-child brands in city-level commercial district malls.
Picture source/meland parent-child interaction growth space
Seize the spare time of contemporary youth, art, e-sports, health, self-enhancement
Cultural, sports and entertainment as a drainage format, its customer attraction is undoubtedly the focus of shopping malls, but the leased area is large and the lease capacity is relatively weak. For the city-level commercial district mall that emphasizes revenue, the rental premium with strong operating capability Brands are even more icing on the cake, such as SUPERMONKEY Super Gorilla Fitness, Van Gogh Art Gallery, No. 1 Play Cafe, Sisyph Bookstore.
Picture Source/SUPERMONKEY Super Gorilla Fitness
Love beauty, love health, aiming at work customers to provide quality life
Life service formats that meet the needs of daily life are more inclined to be deployed in regional business districts covering surrounding residential customers. In city-level business district malls, business formats that meet the needs of working people to improve their external image and health care are more concerned. , Such as 3AM HAIR SALON, INSTYLE styling, kity house nail and eyelashes, hippocampus photo studio, naive blue photo studio, Siji Junmei pedicure, Suntech Dental, etc.
Throughout the 2020 stock shopping mall adjustment drama, we are trying our best to get rid of the inherent impression, “replace the old look with the new look”, and burst into youth.
Please answer 2021:
What imagination is there for inventory adjustment?
This article comes fromWeChat public account: Yingshang Cloud Think Tank (ID: sydcxy2014) , author: small universe squad