Solve the mystery of domestic blind box explosion.
Editor’s note: This article from the micro-channel public number “Tencent Research Institute” (ID: cyberlawrc), of: white Huitian.
The popularity of the blind box has been going on for a long time, and the blind box economy has also helped Bubble Mart gain a market value of 100 billion yuan.
Although Bubble Mart is known as the “Blind Box First Unit”, the blind box is actually an authentic foreign product, which can be traced back to Japanese lucky bags and gashapons. From an economic point of view, the blind box, lucky bag, gashapon, and the little raccoon Water Margin Hero Card, which were all the rage among students in the 1990s, are all “probability products.” They are based on series. One series includes multiple basic models and 1 hidden model. Buyers know that there is a certain probability of getting a certain series of products, but they are not sure which one they got. In order to further stimulate consumers’ desire to buy, the number of “hidden items” is very scarce, and the probability of winning is only 1/144.
Since the “probability product” business model is not uncommon, why can domestic blind boxes create business miracles? Is the popularity of the blind box short-lived, or will it become a trend that lasts for a period of time? To judge whether the blind box economy can continue to be popular, it is necessary to calmly analyze the root causes of the blind box economy boom. Next, the author will solve the mystery of the explosion of domestic blind boxes from the three dimensions of macroeconomic environment, meso-scale industrial strategy and micro-consumer psychology.
Small luck in the uncertain external environment:
New product of lipstick economy
In the past two years, black swan incidents have occurred frequently around the world. In particular, the sudden outbreak of the epidemic last year pressed the pause button on the economy. Most industries have been affected to a certain extent, and the incomes of many people have been affected. But the blind box economy has shown a strong growth momentum, and this growth can be regarded as a new embodiment of the “lipstick economy” among contemporary Chinese young people.
The concept of “lipstick economy” was born in the Great Depression in the 1930s in the United States. At that time, people’s consumer spending was squeezed, but consumer desires needed to be released, so people would switch to relatively cheap non-productive products such as lipsticks. Life necessities to release the tension caused by consumption pressure, this is the so-called “lipstick economy.”
From the perspective of product attributes, there are many similarities between blind boxes and lipsticks. First of all, their unit price is lower. Compared with shoes and bags, lipstick is a cheap enjoyment. The same is true for blind boxes. The blind boxes of dozens of dollars are 1/10 of the price of other trendy toys. The difference between two or three cups of milk teanot much. Secondly, they are all spiritual consumer goods, which can play a role in pleasing themselves: when the external environment is full of uncertainty, there is always a lipstick to enhance the complexion, and there is always a baby to soothe the soul. Finally, from an economic perspective, they are all commodities with a substitution effect greater than an income effect. Economic pressure will make some people unable to buy cars, houses, or travel abroad, so the “small spare money” in people’s hands increases instead, just to buy some “cheap non-essential things.”
Blind box sales are highly similar to the underlying logic of lipstick sales after extreme events such as the US financial crisis or 9/11. For young people in their twenties and thirties, the main audience of the blind box economy, they grow up with ACG (Animation, Comics and Games, or animation, comics and games) and pay more and more attention to spiritual consumer goods. Since the future is full of uncertainty, it is better to pick a blind box to add a little bit of luck to your life.
Grasp the development of the domestic trendy play industry
In the bonus period, quickly drive into the fast lane
If the “lipstick economy” explains the macroeconomic background of the blind box economy, it is the development of the domestic trendy toy industry that really promotes the rapid growth of the blind box economy. Under the tide of “new retail + consumption upgrade + supply-side reform”, domestic companies represented by Bubble Mart took advantage of the industry development bonus period to quickly move into the fast lane and grow into the builders of trendy toy culture ecology.
Frost & Sullivan’s research report shows that the market size of China’s trendy toy retail increased from 6.3 billion yuan in 2015 to 20.7 billion yuan in 2019, with an average annual compound growth rate of 34.6%, and the market size is expected to reach 763 in 2024. 100 million yuan. Compared with Japan and South Korea, China’s trendy toy industry is still in its infancy, with only hundreds of companies participating in the competition, and the market covers a relatively small number of products. We often see such scenes in Japanese TV dramas. If the protagonist is obsessed with a certain doll/model, his room is bound to be filled with a dazzling collection. In China, this scenario has just begun to appear, and there is still a lot of space on the display shelf.
Picture source: 52TOYS official website
From the demand side, my country’s per capita disposable income has been increasing year by year, and the level of consumption has greatly increased. The main audience of Blind Box was born in the post-95 generation Z population. According to the population data of the Bureau of Statistics in 2019, there are 227 million generation Z populations (author’s note: the total population of 1.4005 million at the end of 2019, a total of samples from the population sample survey sample data) The survey of 1091876 people, including 177185 people aged 10-24, accounting for 16.23%. According to the total population, the population of the z era is 227.19 million). They grew up in the era of abundant material resources and paid attention to spiritual and cultural consumption. However, because the development of cultural-related industries such as trendy toys in my country lags behind the economy, there is still a lot of room for power on the supply side; when the blind box with a relatively low entry threshold suddenly appears in the public eye, it quickly brings market demand The blowout growth. Therefore, relying on the Chinese market with great development potential, using the industry gap to quickly drive into the fast lane is the key to the success of the blind box.
Deeply cultivate products and use online and offline linkage
Trading model expands influence
Of course, the blessing of blind boxes is far from enough only by the blessing of external conditions. Blind box manufacturers can seize the opportunity, take advantage of the trend, and even maintain their longevity in the future. Among the many internal strengths, the most commendable is the ingenious product design of the domestic blind box and the online and offline transaction mode.
First, judging from the characteristics of a single product, the blind box, as a cultural product, has certain artistic attributes. Compared with gashapon or other collection toys, the blind box’s sophisticated production, novel design and potential IP emotional value behind it makes it carry the label of fashion and art. Especially the hidden models have a certain collection value and appreciation space. This makes the blind box surpass other ordinary toy products since its birth.
Secondly, from the perspective of the design concept of the series of products, sellers cleverly used the Diderot effect when selling blind boxes. The Diderot effect is also known as the “matching effect”, which refers to the fact that in the process of obtaining an item, before obtaining an item, the mental state is relatively stable, but after obtaining the item, it changes To be dissatisfied. The existence of the Diderot effect not only affects consumersThe goal and motivation when buying blind boxes has changed their demand for the product.
Generally speaking, the marginal utility of a commodity is diminishing. As the number of people buying a certain product increases, the utility of buying a single product of the same kind will gradually decrease. But the blind box is not the case. Players often feel that “a blind box is as deep as the sea”. This is because the manufacturer of the blind box has set up a large number of figures with the same theme but with different character shapes in each set of the blind box; a single figure placed alone seems unremarkable, but it is a complete set. After that, it will bring great pleasure to the player. Some product series go a step further, directly designing pairs of characters such as Snow White and the Dwarf, Little Red Riding Hood and Big Bad Wolf into a set of more than ten product series. Players first randomly draw a certain hand, and then under the influence of the Diderot effect, they will especially want to draw a pair of the other hand. It is mentioned in the Prospectus of Bubble Mart that about 70% of trendy toy consumers will buy blind boxes three times or more because of the desire for a particular figure. This is because businesses have taken advantage of the consumer’s mentality of “getting more and more insufficiency”.
Finally, from the perspective of marketing strategy, blind box merchants have cleverly created a diversified consumption scene, expanding the scope of influence and buying groups through the simultaneous driving of online and offline. Offline, blind box merchants open stores in mid-to-high-end shopping malls and other prosperous locations, and attract consumers to check in through various methods such as concept stores, pop-up stores, and theme exhibitions. In addition, blind box merchants also deploy a large number of offline robot stores, especially in places with high traffic such as subway stations, shopping malls, and movie theaters. This can not only achieve the effect of advertising, but also attract people to use fragmented time to achieve consumption.
Although the offline market is the main battlefield of the blind box market, the opening and expansion of the online market also provides a second position for the blind box to “break the circle”. According to Frost & Sullivan’s estimates, from 2019 to 2024, the online market in China’s fashion play market will become more active, with a compound annual growth rate expected to increase to 60.7%, which is much higher than the offline market’s 26.5%. Growth rate. In the figure below, the change in the proportion of online channel sales of Bubble Mart blind box also confirms this growth trend.
The development of digital technology has expanded the spread of “explosive styles”, and the popularity of blind boxes is also inseparable from the drive of digital technology. The once smash hit “probability products” simply noodle collection cards and gashapon can only have a limited influence on classmates, neighbors, etc. under the background of the times.
Blind box, born in the digital age, can break through the limitations of the original circle with diversified publicity methods, and reach more people more conveniently, thus rapidly expanding the group of blind box players, thereby making the minority Culture began to move towards a broader world. It is the popularity of the Internet and mobile terminals that have narrowed the distance between people, so that communication between people is no longer restricted by factors such as geography, age, education level, and identity, breaking the social pattern of the original acquaintance society .
Picture source: Bubble Mart official website
In particular, new media platforms such as Station B, Xiaohongshu, Douyin, etc. have released great influence to the audience. The application of communication techniques such as algorithm push and scene marketing has promoted target customers to change from wait and see to action, and even It is expected to be included in the loyal customer group. With the secondary dissemination of blind box enthusiasts on major online social media, communication channels have increased and communication channels have widened, and the next batch of potential consumer groups of blind boxes are waiting to be aroused.
In the context of social activity, individuals are more likely to have the need to show their personal interests on new media platforms. Based on the concept of aesthetic division proposed by Bourdieu, aesthetic taste not only represents an individual’s lifestyle, it also represents an individual’s level in the social space. People need to show their identity and circle through the goods and services they use. Blind box is a commodity with certain artistic and collection attributes. The symbol value it contains far exceeds its use value. Therefore, it can be used as a social currency to establish connections between players and form a social group with interests as the medium. .
According to Goffman’s drama theory, players produce blind box-related UGC works (ie User Generated Content), which is conducive to constructing a more perfect virtual social image that is different from reality; alsoIt is easier to reach similar fans through various channels, establish a new social circle, and gain self-identification in interaction with online users. Acting on new media platforms such as WeChat, Weibo, Douyin, Xiaohongshu, etc. can help users create a variety of virtual social images such as trendy players and blind box masters. Players continue to interact in the group of “baby friends” to strengthen the relationship between each other, even develop the online connection to the offline, further enhance the sense of belonging to the group, and find their own identity.
Conclusion
The blind box economy has exploded in the context of frequent black swan incidents in the past two years. With the help of digital technology, major blind box manufacturers have expanded their consumer groups with ingenious product design and online and offline marketing models, and seized the gap in the development of the domestic trendy play industry. The “blind box economy” that is in the air has also become a high ground for many capitals.
Of course, we have also seen the continuous innovation of blind box merchants in products and gameplay, but whether consumers’ psychological demands when buying blind boxes will be satisfied by other products or services is actually unknown.
We will wait and see what the blind box economy will develop in the future.
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