This article is from WeChat official account:The real name is Lu Jun (ID: zhenjiaolujun0426) , author: Qiao ukulele, head Figure from: vision China

More than a month ago, Shenzhen released an unprecedented regulation method: Guide prices for second-hand housing.

The literal meaning is that when a second-hand house is sold in Shenzhen, the seller does not sell as much as they want, but the average price of the community set by the “guide price”.

So we published the third document on the day of regulation on the official website of the Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development on February 8, and we also saw Shenzhen’s guidance prices for 3595 communities.(Average price), full 84 pages.

More than a month has passed. I have too many questions about the “guide price” like you do. It’s time to try to answer them. For the next thing to say, we only ask for two points: Enough Reality and sufficient detail.

1. The guide price, how to set the price

There is an interpretation in the document on February 8th on the day the policy was released, but just two sentences:

Based on investigation and analysis, the Shenzhen Municipal Real Estate and Urban Construction Development Research Center, based on the online signing price of second-hand housing, and referring to the price of surrounding first-hand housing, comprehensively formed the reference price of second-hand housing transactions in residential communities in the city.

What are the specific dimensions of “basic and reference”, besides the first-hand price, are there others? Is the corresponding weight average, median or other? I don’t know who can help me, only an intermediary. According to their observations over the past month, the pricing principle of the guide price may have these 3 more detailed reference dimensions based on the above two sentences as the principle:

First, the average transaction price in the past 2 years.

To start, take the average of the average transaction price of the past 2 years. This reference coefficient accounts for 60%~70% of the weight in the entire guide price pricing mechanism

In other words, you pull the average transaction price of a community in the past 2 years, find an average, and then this completes the 60%~70% of the guide price pricing share. This point can be extended, and there can be another point.

Secondly, the past transaction activity of the community.

Look at two dimensions:

1. The more active the overall transaction in the community, the closer the guide price to the overall average level of the community.

2. The community with active transactions in recent months must be closer to the market price than the community with active transactions in the previous year.

In other words, the higher the activity of recent transactions in the community, the closer the guide price will be to the market price.

Third, it may be related to the age of the building.

Mainly divided into Land grant time and Completion time.

1. For example, the guide price for Phase 5 of the “Vanke Four Seasons Flower City” in Nanshan District, Shenzhen, compared with the surrounding communities,It has the highest guide price. The land grant date for this piece of land was in 2001, which was the last land grant in the surrounding area.

2. The completion time is easy to understand. For a sub-new community within 5 years, its guiding price advantage must be more advantageous in the reference dimension of the building age than the 10-year or 15-year-old building.

In other words, the newer the building, the higher the guide price. This part of the weight and the weight of the quality conditions of the following community together account for about 30%. The age of the building itself accounts for about 10%.

Fourthly, it is related to quality, such as community facilities and location.

It is the community with better internal hardware or better location, which must be reflected in the guide price. For example, if there is an elevator room in a crowd of staircase rooms, this factor will definitely be reflected in the guide price.

Combining these factors mentioned above, we can understand why the guide price difference of the two communities in the same area and the classmate area on the same street will be 120,000/m²~20,000 /m², let’s look at a specific example:

Shenzhen Futian Free Trade Zone has a community “Baoruixuan”, and another community “Ligangwan” across the street.

The difference between the guide prices of the two communities is nearly 14,000/m². Where is the difference between the prices in the same area and classmate area?

Of course, this is the intermediary’s observation of the market over the past month. It does not represent all, and may not be entirely correct. However, relatively speaking, the better the house, the higher the quality, the newer the building, and the more active the transaction. The more reflected in the guide price, that is, the closer to the market transaction price.

So for a city that implements a guide price, will it be said that the older the building, the higher the turnover rate, and the better the quality of the community, the closer its guide price is to the market price, the more normal it will be to use its own Loan limit.

Second, the guide price, how does it work

First of all, the coverage is very wide.

Currently, there are about 34,000 second-hand houses in the Shenzhen market.

The concept of the 3595 communities covered by the guide price is to cover almost every community in the entire Shenzhen second-hand housing market. Except for some very few exceptions, such as those single-digit apartment duplex products with very high unit prices.

Secondly, the most critical point is that bank credits will accept the guide price.

Originally sold a house of 10 million, as long as the landlord still sells 10 million, then this guide price is not powerful, but if the bank credit recognizes this guide price and lends money according to this guide price, the impact will be very real.

The original loan was 70% of 10 million, but now you can only lend you 70% of 7 million. And not one or several banks do this, but almost all banks lend money at the guide price.

Faced with such a situation, how did the seller further “implement” it?

My friend in Shenzhen shared a few stories about buying a house, including home appliances, furniture, and decoration.

There is also an exaggeration that there is still a need to buy the “real” landlord.

Source: Mr.Z, know almost

The most unbearable is this “Eight HorsesFigure”.

Source: Baijiahao Urban Renewal Zhang Dong

Although they are all jokes, they really let us know that the market is also using its own way to give feedback, because the impact is really great.

3. Let’s take a look at the market after the guidance price is implemented

For home buyers, the most intuitive impact may be the increase in down payment. For example, if a house with a market price of about 10 million yuan was regulated before, the guide price after regulation was 7 million yuan. For buyers, the down payment ratio is the difference between 3 million yuan and 5.1 million yuan.

Where can I put the extra down payment? For example, a set of 88m² two rooms in Futian District, the guide price is 6.3 million, and the actual offer price is 10.5 million.

The buyer’s actual down payment is 1.89 million + 4.2 million, and then the money is paid to the bank in two payments, which is supervised by the bank. At this time, the landlord receives only the deposit for the purchase of the house.

What kind of effect will this simple arithmetic have when it is put on the second-hand housing market in Shenzhen?

The intermediary told me that the transaction volume has decreased a lot, but the price has basically not changed. On a weekly basis, there is a significant difference between before and after the guidance price adjustment.

Many online signing cards reached 1,263 sets of online signings on February 8, accounting for 75.5% of the total number of online signings that week.

Data source: Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau

The trading volume in the week before the regulation was about 2,808 sets, and the number of trading sets in the first week after the regulation fell 30.5% from the previous month. The control effect can be said to be immediate.

This shows at least one problem. Shenzhen homebuyers use a relatively high percentage of leverage and quotas. Therefore, once the current limit from the bank loan level, it will have a great impact on the market as a whole.

In addition to transaction volume, everyone may be more concerned about transaction price. As for the price impact, selling houses at the guide price is an exception, and most landlords are still on the sidelines.

However, there is an exception for a group of people who are queuing for replacement. They have entered the cycle and need to quickly sell the house in their hands and enter the buying cycle. At this time, their actual listing price will be lowered, and these people have also become sincere customers in the mouth of the intermediary.

For example, there is a set of 110m² 3 rooms in Futian District, which was 10.5 million years ago, and the room for discussion is not very large. Then the owner took a fancy to the house and was anxious to replace it, and then came across the second-hand market in Shenzhen., And now the price has dropped directly to 9.8 million.

The same is true for low-cost houses. A 67m² two-bedroom apartment in a certain district of Shenzhen has an offer price of 3.3 million and a guide price of 2.38 million. The same apartment type sold a set of 3.6 million last month. of. In other words, the landlord cut the price by about 300,000 yuan.

Another very interesting phenomenon is that there are more people buying and moving houses in the market.

Because the relocation housing in Shenzhen is full, he handed over the money to the villagers, and the villagers gave up his qualifications for relocation. Then the buyer directly signs with the developer, and the name of the buyer is written directly on the house built by the developer in the future.

So as soon as the guide price came out, the leverage was originally low, so it is better to go to the full amount to do the relocation of the house, and you can also break the purchase restriction. But these are not the original intentions for policy makers.

4. Guess what the deeper impact is

We have to see at least three levels like this:

First, for raising the down payment, we need to see another effect of raising the down payment threshold.

It is possible to divert real rigid demand to real estate with relatively small price difference before and after regulation. In this case, it will also cool down those very popular second-hand properties, so that these properties will have less confidence in the premium.

Furthermore, when we expand it, we will also consider the level of urban development strategy. For example, if you compare the guide price of 3595 communities with the market price before the regulation, you will find that the discount for the western region is about 30%, and the discount for Shenzhen Bay is about 50%. For example, the guide price of “Hengyu Bincheng” is 132,000 yuan. /m², and its previous average price was 250,000/m²~300,000/m².

The guide price of the eastern district is closest to the market price, including the city of Moore mentioned above, which are all in the eastern district. In other words, buying a house in the eastern region is more likely to get a full loan.

Behind this, from the perspective of urban strategy, the government may want to promote the development of the east. In other words, when a city that implements the guidance price sets the guidance price, it may incorporate the development direction and development strategy of the city into the price, and it may be easier to buy a house in a developing place.

The last layer, we need to see this:

A community has issued a guide price and is telling everyone that it is officially recognized that it is only worth so much money. If you are willing to spend more money to buy it, you need to sign a relevant risk agreement.

It is equivalent to saying that you already know that you are buying at a price higher than the government’s guidance, and the risks are known. If you encounter other problems in the future, now it is an early reminder.

And it’s not just a reminder, after the guide price, we will use less leverage. Buyers who were able to leverage more funds before, now their leverage has become lower, and the market has instantly cooled down. Everyone who is ready to enter the market needs to calm down and wait and see.

In essence, the role of policy itself is to change market expectations.

Fifth, why is Shenzhen

At present, the first city we have heard of clearly and fully implementing the guidance price is Shenzhen. There may be high winds and high waves, and there will be more natural coping strategies, but what we need to see is:

Why is Shenzhen?

The intermediary told me that in 2020 last year, the housing prices in Shenzhen increased by about 30% on average from the beginning of the year to the end of the year. For example, in a residential area in Shenzhen, a house in the “Oriental Peninsula Garden” cost 3.08 million in April last year, and now has a guide price of 2.78 million, while its current real listing price is 3.78 million.

Market expectations are too hot.The deeper reason behind this is the particularly prominent contradiction between supply and demand.

What many people don’t know is that Shenzhen’s new population is nearly 300,000 to 400,000 every year, while Shenzhen’s area is only 1997.47 square kilometers, which is much smaller than other first-tier cities.

This means that Shenzhen has a high population density. There are about 6,700 people per square kilometer of land, which is almost five times that of Beijing. Therefore, the contradiction between supply and demand is one of the base factors for considering this problem.

For example, in the “Shajing Coastal City” in Shenzhen, some netizens gave a vivid example. 110,000 people came to the Coastal City to pass the audit, and 17,000 people had social insurance for more than 200 months.

Then on the opening day, 3,000 people out of 17,000 people were drawn to win 750 units, which means that only 68 of 10,000 people can buy a house. These two points are the heating factors for housing prices in almost all hot cities, so why only Shenzhen does this, so the following is the answer to “Why Shenzhen”.

The leverage ratio in Shenzhen is too high. Unlike other cities, Shenzhen’s first set of down payment ratio is still 30%, and the second set of down payment is 50%.

Compared with the first set of 35% and the second set of 65%~70% down payment in other cities, the difference is not small.

The difference in the proportion of 5%, 15%, and 20% means that for a house of about 10 million yuan, this means a down payment of 500,000, 1.5 million, and 2 million.

For the larger capital pool of a first-tier property market, it is an absolute behemoth. This is also why Shenzhen’s second-hand housing regulation will be tightened from the mortgage port.

After all, high leverage not only means opportunities, but also implies risks. If mortgages are tight, the market will have a series of chain reactions.

What everyone needs to be clear is that Shenzhen is not only the frontier of the market economy, but at the national strategic level, Shenzhen should be the youngest, most dynamic, and most innovative city in our country.

However, in such a city, the average unit price of second-hand in January 2021 will reach 90,000+. This is reflected in the urban development level. We will see the loss of enterprises and talents. Huawei moves to Dongguan, and young people choose to leave Shenzhen.

So high leverage is not a welcome event for Shenzhen’s long-term development. There is only one Shenzhen in China, and the future of Shenzhen cannot be dragged down by housing prices.

Now it seems that many people will be curious about what will happen in the future. In fact, such a thing as a guide price has existed for many years, such as Beijing, which has long been low-frequency low loans.

For the future of Shenzhen, this possibility is not impossible, but it is more likely that as the market freezes, the guide price may gradually relax and return to normal order. After all, Shenzhen is still a city dominated by market economy.

For now, the guidance price appears to be exaggerated, but in fact, the effect after fermentation has reached expectations. What kind of soil is suitable for what kind of policy. Shenzhen knows this point better than anyone else.

This article is from WeChat official account: really makes Rousseau (ID: zhenjiaolujun0426) , author: clever ukulele