This article is from the WeChat official account:Dongsi Shitiao Capital (ID: DsstCapital) span> , author: Gongxiao Zhen, editing: Dongli Han, the original title: “most of the copy wood sister operation, is VC”, title figure from the Investors’ Business Daily, the far right is Cathie wood .
A 64-year-old female investor was screaming against the 91-year-old Buffett and Soros, and she turned into a “female version of Buffett.”
Their positions on investment in cutting-edge technology are quite different. Buffett does not support Tesla and Bitcoin, she does. Soros does not support Palantir, a big data service company, and she does. Many people describe that she is using VC to speculate stocks: I invest in loss-making companies, hold heavy positions, and have cutting-edge topics.
She is the new stock god on Wall Street, Cathie Wood, sister Mu Mu, was named the “Queen of Bull Market” and “Moneymaker”.
She established an actively managed fund in 2014 (active fund, fund managers choose stocks by themselves, choose Time trading)ARK invest (hereinafter referred to as “ARK”) stood out last year. In the top ten ETFs in the US stock market last year, ARK accounted for three. The ETFs of the Gene Revolution, the next generation of the Internet, and Aegis Tesla all soared by about 1.5 times or more.
Countless investors voted for her with money. In just one year and two months, ARK attracted $40 billion in gold.
Mu Mu also recently did something written into history. ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF (NYSE:ARKX), ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF (NYSE:ARKX), was publicly released on March 30, with a trading volume of US$294 million on that day. , The scale has reached the eighth highest in ETF history.
This is the appeal of the bull queen.
She has gained the influence of the “National Idol” level, and her name has penetrated into all circles. Children in second and third grades in the United States also know her. Teach children how to manage money, and parents will guide them to experiment with ARK.
A netizen on Reddit shared that through a children’s financial management software, his 9-year-old daughter bought 3 shares of an ETF under ARK with more than $200 saved. There are comments below, you are not alone, my 8-year-old son also chose ARK.
On Wall Street, celebrity fund managers similar to Ms. Mu Mu are usually described as “shooting stars”, and they happen almost once in two decades.
A-shares are highly volatile, and there are many star fund managers. Actively managed funds like ARK in the US stock market are alternative and difficult to succeed. It is more correct to be an index-tracking fund.
According to data from Morningstar and S&P Dow Jones, only 24% of actively managed funds have beaten passively managed index funds for 10 years from June last year. In addition, 82% of large equity funds have not Can outperform the S&P 500 Index.
But Mu Mu broke the fixed experience, she spent 6 years standing opposite Buffett and others. “I thought the era of being a rock star fund manager was over, and I was wrong.” A Bloomberg stock analyst mentioned when evaluating sister Mu’s success.
However, Sister Mu Mu is not a figure favored by Buffett and other value investors.
Value investing emphasizes crossing cycles, and although meteors are rare, they are fleeting. For example, during the Internet bubble, there were funds like ARK, but after the bull market, the performance was disastrous. For example, from 1995 to 1999, Janus Twenty’s average annualized rate of return was 45.22%, and from 2000 to 2003, its average annualized rate of return was -17.84%.
However, even if there is no bull market in 2020, Mu Jie is also a very good fund manager. Taking an unusual path, using the non-mainstream style of VC betting on the track, and achieving a scale of $3.3 billion from 0 in the first five years of its establishment, it is rare enough. As for whether it will fall off the altar, this is a question for funds with more than US$50 billion in asset management.
More and more VCs choose to invest in the secondary market, and ARK, which proves this alternative play, can also be a reference.
In addition, ARK’s practice of tying marketing, branding, and investment strategies together is comparable to a textbook case. Sister Mu Mu also said, “If there is no social media, there is noDays of success”.
VC’s approach to stock speculation
According to Morningstar’s statistics, as of the end of December last year, ARK holds 10% of the shares in 24 companies. 10% means that buying stocks to become shareholders involved in the operation and management of the company.
This is a completely different way of playing. For a public equity fund, a portfolio holding 3% is high enough. People who don’t know think that ARK is a VC, and even if it is a VC, the shareholding ratio can only be so high in the early stage.
At first glance, most of ARK’s top 20 positions are loss-making companies.
This is typical of Buffett’s moat theory. For example, it was mentioned by Buffett’s believer Zhang Kun: “Now there are 200 A-shares in my self-selected stocks. It depends on the ROIC (return on capital) long-term (over five years) of 10 % Above companies.”
In other words, under normal circumstances, it is correct to choose a company with good profit and cash flow. At this point, Mu Mu sister is more similar to VC’s philosophy. VC pays attention to growth, and there are not a few companies that burn money to support.
But from a general perspective, Ms. Mu’s strategy is right.
ARK’s ETF concept is the next generation of Internet, genetic revolution, automated technology and robotics, and financial technology, which correspond to information technology, medical, industrial, and financial S&P industries in the past 10 and 20 years. The industry with the highest index yield and the most growth potential.
Netizens commented on ARK’s vision, and you can also see the word “ambush”, that is, to make arrangements in advance. For example, in the Clubhouse fire, you will find that ARK has captured the technology service provider Agora, and the benchmark company Twilio.
According to the VC gambling on the track, there is a basis to be found. Ms. Mu seized the opportunity to be underestimated.
Deng Hu, an analyst at Shenhong Wanyuan, also pointed out in his research that even in industries with good growth potential, ETFs that focus on a single industry sector have not received much favor.
For example, in the early days, in 1998 and 1999, the S&P Information Technology Index rose by 77.64% and 78.44%, respectively. State Street’s Technology Select Industry ETF XLK only rose to less than US$700 million, while the S&P 500 ETF SPY during the same period , Nasdaq ETF QQQ flows into 92 and 7 respectively700 million US dollars, far surpassing the technology industry products.
Deng Hu mentioned, “On the whole, the large-scale industry ETFs in the United States rank relatively low among all ETFs, and they were established before 2008. There are many stocks held in a single product, all of which are early Industry sector products”.
But it is also very risky. It is difficult to make a subdivided thematic ETF bigger. Analyst Deng Hu counted the 10 largest ETFs in the U.S. stock market that hold less than 30 shares. Except for State Street Communication Services Select Industry SPDR Fund and State Street Energy Select Industry SPDR Fund, other products are more than 3 billion US dollars. the following.
However, from the results, ARK’s investment strategy has been verified. Generally speaking, Mu Sister has survived the downturn and seized the opportunity of the bull market.
Last year, not only Tesla’s ARKK, but also a number of tracks performed well. ARK invest was among the top ten ETFs in the U.S. stock market with stock price gains last year. The ETFs of Genetic Revolution (ARKG) and Next Generation Internet (ARKW) had the highest gains, both exceeding 1.5 times, significantly outperforming the S&P index.
Of course, this is also an extremely test of patience, and performance is fluctuating. The same ETF performed well in the previous year, and perhaps the worst in the second year. The worst-performing fund may soon be the fund with the highest return.
Betting that Tesla has also wavered. In 2018, the average yield of ARK fell back to the bottom. For example, ARKK was 87.41% in 2017 and only 3.59% in 2018. In the first half of 2019, ARK’s first position appeared in the shadow of chip company Nvidia and Internet finance company Lendingclub.
Starting from the second half of 2019, Tesla has returned to the position of ARK’s first position, and Ms. Mu also mentioned in an interview with “Yahoo Finance” that if you don’t insist on Tesla in 2019, no There will be today’s success.
marketing queen
Sister Mu Mu is not only the queen of the bull market, but also the queen of marketing.
The dismantling is about three layers, taking advantage of marketing, transparent marketing, and boring marketing.
The image of Mu Jie from “black and red” to a well-known opinion leader in the investment industry was accomplished through two occasions marketing. The big words she uttered in the eyes of people back then have become a myth in today’s investment world, and a shocking reversal has taken place.
ARK’s borrowing marketing is the most well-known. For example, as everyone knows, Ms. Mu tweeted to predict Tesla’s stock price. Looking carefully, the timing of each time overlaps with the time of major changes in Tesla. The card is accurate.
The first time was in August 2018. Musk tweeted that he was going to privatize Tesla. Sister Mu sent an open letter to Musk saying that Tesla’s stock price would be between 700 and 4,000 US dollars within five years. Expressed opposition and took this to a wave of enthusiasm. This is the first time she has become “red”.
This is also related to investment strategy. According to SEC information, in the two months before this, Tesla has become the company with the first position in ARK again. Previously, it was 3D printing and medical concept stocks, such as Stratasys, Athenahealth.
Although the result of the first attempt was not very good, I was ridiculed for a year, but this paved the way for the rectification of my name in the future.
Sister Mu Mu was ridiculed at the time, which was normal. In 2018, Ms. Mu only managed less than $2.5 billion in assets, which is still unknown compared with Wall Street financial crocodile. In addition, the stock price she predicted was beyond the cognition of most people. At that time, Tesla’s stock price was less than $80. And until last January, Tesla’s stock price broke $800, and the sell-side analyst’s forecast was only $400.
The second operation was last year. Sister Mu Mu’s prediction came true and she took the opportunity to build momentum. On January 7, 2020, Tesla’s stock price reached US$816. Musk surpassed Bezos to become the world’s richest man, and his net worth rose to US$185 billion. Ms. Mu tweeted twice in a row, predicting that Tesla’s target stock price will be US$6,000 and US$7,000.
Sister Mu’s second trick is to market transparently. ARK’s positions will be announced on the official website every day. If you subscribe to the email, you can see it in your mailbox every day.
This practice is extremely rare in the ETF industry, and the normal publication cycle is one month. MultipleReddit netizens mentioned “I like this kind of transparency.” This has also led to secondary dissemination. Free crawler websites, official accounts, and WeChat applets are all chasing updates.
Some investors commented: “This will have a follow-up effect, which can expand the increase in the bull market. If it is her own money, she will definitely not announce it.”
This kind of transparency is also the way Ms. Mu communicates with investors. For example, ARK’s stock price plummeted at the end of February and early March. She had previously publicly warned in the media and also warned investors to be cautious in the email.
The effect is bound to be good. People did not show the emotion of “declining mothers denying”, instead they were more willing to vote for Sister Mu Mu with money. According to Bloomberg News, on February 23, ARKK first flowed out a record US$465 million, and after three consecutive days of falling, it then inflowed a record US$464 million.
The third trick is boring marketing, which establishes a professional and down-to-earth brand image, and also instills investment in disruptive innovation strategies into investors.
Click on ARK’s official website to have all the reports on various investment topics; click on YouTube, ARK’s interpretation of investment has been updated to episode 90 since 2019. ARK analysts who are followed by Musk and others often appear on Twitter, and a brand communication matrix is in front of you.
Since March 2020, Ms. Mu will also appear regularly in the video to meet with the audience. There are no grounded phrases in her mouth, most of which are descriptions of macroeconomics, and she will not reveal detailed stories, everything is plain. If you have to talk about the advantages, it is that the stand is clear enough and talked frequently enough.
For example, the whole world knows that she supports Bitcoin, although ARK’s investment in Bitcoin is not as optimistic as Tesla.
ARK has held Bitcoin for long enough, but the position of Bitcoin only ranked 5th in the third quarter of 2017, and the rest did not enter the top 20.
She was also ridiculed by CNBC TV media commentator Cramer, “She is sightseeing, not investing”, Cramer wrote on Twitter, but not many people know or really care about this million fans The words of the big V.
In the previous period, many stockholders copied the work of Sister Mu Mu, and ARK invest went up for everything they bought. On January 13, ARK submitted a prospectus for the space ETF to the SEC. In two days, Virgin Pacific’s stock price rose by 18%. From 27.56 US dollars per share to 33.03 US dollars, the value of founder Branson’s stock increased by 300 million US dollars in a single day.
On February 18th, ARK 134 million US dollars in Palantir, the Palantir share price soared 16% within two days. At the time, in the wallstreetbets group of the Reddit forum, netizens’ voice was, “Let Palantir stock price go to the moon! Like Musk, Mu Jie is the idol of the wallstreetbets group. You can see fan circles like “Musk Dad, Mu Jie Mom”. Words.
From investment to marketing, ARK’s achievements are a comprehensive strategy, and the marketing efforts should not be overlooked. It is also a sample of the most modern investment agency marketing.
So the VC who should copy the job of Sister Mu is the VC, from investment to marketing.