Tesla needs to scale, and Toyota needs to be electrified. Editor’s note: This article is from ”
Future car Daily “(micro-channel public number ID: auto-time), Author: Qin Zhang Yong.
Source: Pixabay
Author丨Qin Zhangyong
Edit丨Li Huanhuan
“Tesla China team did a great job!” Since the first quarter delivery data far exceeded expectations, on April 5th, Tesla CEO Elon Musk could not help himself on Twitter. praise.
Official data show that in the first quarter of this year, Tesla produced 180,338 new cars globally and delivered 184,800 vehicles, exceeding the delivery record in the fourth quarter of last year and better than market expectations. China has gradually become the main market for Tesla. According to data from the China Passenger Association, the sales of domestically produced Model 3 and Model Y in February were 13,688 and 4,630, respectively, ranking second and third in the new energy passenger car sales rankings of the month. .
After the release of Tesla’s first quarter delivery data, its stock price immediately rose by more than 7%, and major investment banks have successively upgraded their ratings on Tesla stocks.
American investment bank Wedbush analyst Dan Ives upgraded Tesla’s stock rating from “Neutral” to “Outperform” and set its 12-month price target from $950 Increased to US$1,000.
Everything is moving in a better direction. However, for Tesla, the short-term sales increase is no longer enough to meet market expectations. Since 2021, Tesla’s stock price has fallen by nearly 10%. In the long run, Tesla’s market value needs to be supported by greater production capacity and sales volume.
Musk once said that by 2030, the production scale of Tesla’s pure electric vehicles will be increased to 20 million. This number is 40 times that of about 500,000 in 2020. It is undoubtedly a goal to achieve this goal. Great challenge.
Not long ago, South Korean media quoted sources as reporting that Toyota is considering restarting cooperation with Tesla to jointly develop a compact pure electric SUV. The two car companies have started negotiations on this plan since last year. The negotiations are nearing completion. If the two parties can cooperate, it may provide greater imagination for Tesla’s scale.
160,000 buying Tesla is no longer a dream?
With the new power of ChinaWith the rise of auto companies, the sales of NIO, Ideal, and Xiaopeng have gradually increased. It is difficult for Tesla to continue to dominate. At the same time, Tesla’s position in Europe is no longer indestructible. Renault Zoe successfully surpassed Tesla Model 3 and won the European electric car sales champion in 2020. The newly launched Volkswagen ID.3 is also eyeing, Tesla is in The market share of Europe is constantly being diluted.
“Tesla will not be the eternal king of electric vehicles.” Steve Westly, a former board member who has long been optimistic about Tesla, seems to have predicted Tesla’s weakness in advance.
At this time, Tesla urgently needs a larger scale effect to support its leading position.
In fact, Tesla’s continued increase in sales is largely due to the continuous decline in the price of its models, which has gained a larger market share.
An obvious example is that in the first quarter of 2021, all electric cars produced by Tesla are Model 3 and Model Y. The output of the more expensive Model S and Model X is zero. Approximately 2,000 deliveries were from previous inventory, and deliveries accounted for only 1% of total deliveries in the quarter.
On the site of Battery Day in September 2020, Musk once said that in the future, Tesla will launch an economical electric car worth 25,000 US dollars (about 160,000 yuan).
The above-mentioned person familiar with the matter said that if the negotiations with Toyota go smoothly, Tesla will provide technical support such as software technology and electronic control platform, and Toyota will contribute advanced modular platform technology to be responsible for vehicle production. This means that Tesla can take advantage of Toyota’s manufacturing advantages to launch an electric car worth $25,000, which will be closer to reality.
In a sense, Toyota can be said to be Tesla’s “Bole”. As early as 2010, Musk invited Toyota Motor President Akio Toyoda to test drive the Tesla Roadster. At that time, Tesla was not favored by the outside world. In the show “Crazy Money”, US CNBC host Jim Cramer called on the audience to stay away from Tesla stock, “Don’t buy this stock! Don’t even rent this ridiculous thing (Tesla car).” .
After testing the Roadster, Akio Toyoda gave Tesla a thumbs up. Subsequently, Toyota invested US$50 million to purchase 2.4% of Tesla’s shares and sold Toyota’s NUMMI plant in California, the United States, valued at nearly US$1 billion to Tesla for US$42 million. Toyota sent charcoal in the snow, let Tesla get through the difficulties, and at the same time, Toyota also asked Tesla to manufacture the pure electric version of RAV4 for it.
RAV4 EV source: Top Gear
However, the two sides did not go too far. According to the “Washington News” report, the RAV4 EV project not only failed to allow both parties to get what they needed, but also exposed the cultural and technological conflict between the two. Because early Tesla’s technology was not very mature, the quality problems of RAV 4 EV frequently occurred, and the production of less than 2,000 vehicles was eventually discontinued. At the end of 2016, Toyota sold all of Tesla’s shares, and the first cooperation between the two has also come to an end.
Today’s Tesla has long since faded away from the “greenness” of the time, and the cooperation with Toyota is no longer “improperly wrong”. If the cooperation between the two parties is successful, it will undoubtedly contribute to Tesla’s high market value.
Toyota makes up for technical shortcomings
For Toyota, the process of choosing to partner with Tesla is a bit tortuous.
Betting on hybrid and fuel cell technology routes for a long time, Toyota has become the spokesperson of hybrid power. In Toyota’s view, hydrogen fuel cells have huge development potential. Compared with pure electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel vehicles emit only water, which can be truly environmentally friendly. This makes Toyota and Tesla stand on the conservative side. The two “opposites” of the attack.
In Akio Toyoda’s view, electric vehicles have been overhyped, and Tesla’s stock price has also been seriously overvalued by the market. “Tesla is not mature enough to influence global automotive trends, especially in the field of electric vehicle technology.”
Toyota Akio Source: Weibo
However, when the electrification wave swept across, Toyota can hardly stand alone. In October 2020, the Japanese government proposed a goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. Under multiple pressures, Toyota had to accelerate research on electric vehicle architecture platforms and solid-state batteries.
In fact, Toyota started the RAV4 EV research and development project as early as 1995. Later, due to the high cost of bicycle manufacturing and the shortcomings in battery technology, it was finally “persuaded” in 2003.
Today, Toyota’s “old rival” Volkswagen has vigorously embarked on the electrification transformation, and its ID.3 models have made little achievements in the European market. In contrast, Toyota hasn’tAn electric vehicle built on an electric vehicle platform. A fact that has to be admitted is that Toyota has fallen into a disadvantage in the process of electrification transformation.
While the transformation to electrification is “frustrated”, Toyota is also facing a “software crisis” that cannot be ignored.
Japanese media once disassembled a Model 3, believing that Tesla is far ahead of the industry in terms of artificial intelligence, electronic technology and chip integration, even leading Toyota and Volkswagen for 6 years.
At this time, choosing to partner with Tesla, on the one hand, can make up for the shortcomings in the core technology and software technology of electric vehicles, and on the other hand, it can also enrich its own electric vehicle product matrix.
However, the specific links and levels involved in the cooperation between the two parties and how the two parties avoid repeating the mistakes of the previous RAV4 EV project are issues that need to be carefully considered.
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