What is the possible future direction of blind box development?
Editor’s note: This article is from the WeChat public account “Everyone is a Product Manager” (ID: woshipm), author: Conlin.
Now everything can be blind boxes, blind boxes for takeaways, blind boxes for tickets, blind boxes for snacks, etc. are springing up like bamboo shoots after the rain. Why is the blind box economy so hot? What psychology of the user does it use? What marketing methods does it have? What are the risks and development opportunities? The author of this article will analyze the blind box economy from six aspects and share with you.
As Bubble Mart began to vigorously develop the trendy blind box in 2016, the blind box model began to penetrate into various commercial fields.
Looking back at 2020 and 2021, major food companies have successively launched blind box gift boxes, and later, travel platforms rushed to sell blind boxes for air tickets. Why are companies so keen on the blind box model? What makes consumers so fascinated by small blind boxes? What are the classifications of blind boxes? What is the possible future direction of blind box development?
This article will start from the origin of the blind box, describe the psychological principles, classification and marketing methods of the blind box, analyze the potential risks of the blind box economy, and make some suggestions for the future development of the blind box model.
01 Origin and development
The blind box originated in Japan in the late Meiji period.
In order to clean up inventory, Japanese department stores often launch lucky bags on each holiday. The bags contain various products of different values. The cumulative price of their combined products is greater than the price of a lucky bag. Consumers are triggered because of the “benefit”. buy.
In the 1980s, some Japanese companies brought the “uncertainty” marketing idea of the lucky bag to the “gashapon”.
Different from the daily necessities of the lucky bag, most of the capsules are related to the second element. Because of the uncertainty before the purchase, the surprise of obtaining hidden models, the desire to gather the whole set of peripherals, etc., they are deeply loved by the second element. The focus of purchase has shifted from “benefit” to “collection”.
In the 1990s, the “collection card” blind box economy was born. Various snacks such as crispy noodles were added to the food bag to guide buyers to purchase goods and collect cards.
After 2016, blind box marketing has gradually become a hot topic. Bubble Mart has launched a large number of blind box products, and the form of “fashion play + blind box sales” has gradually been accepted by the public.
Some experienced blind box players even spend tens of thousands of yuan a year to buy blind boxes. In addition to “collecting”, the main motivation for buying also adds factors such as “show off”, “relaxation”, “fashion”, and “investment”.
With the development of the blind box economy, blind boxes are not limited to categories such as daily necessities, toys, stationery, and other areas. Take-out, travel products and other fields are also beginning to try blind box marketing models to earn more traffic and income.
02 From the perspective of psychologyLook at the blind box economy
1. Attention bias: product availability
Attention bias refers to the fact that people’s perceptions are affected by repeated cognition. When a consumer frequently sees a business’s advertisements, news, and products, he/she is more likely to make purchase decisions.
The blind box economy uses this concept.
Take Bubble Mart as an example. Through both online and offline channels, it makes its products more likely to be exposed to the public’s vision and makes people feel urge to consume.
Offline, Bubble Mart has increased the exposure and availability of products by installing unmanned vending machines, pop-up stores and self-operated stores in major shopping malls. When consumers repeatedly saw these products for the first time, There will be a greater probability of buying with an early adopter mentality.
Online, in addition to selling products on Tmall, JD.com and other e-commerce platforms, Bubble Mart also opened an online box drawer mini program to make it easier to display blind boxes through diversified and gamified methods In front of consumers, so that they have attention bias and purchase behavior.
2. Difficulty in choosing: not sure of your needs
Difficulty in choosing is a symptom in which people are uncertain about their inner needs, feel fear when faced with too many choices, and spend a lot of time and energy to choose things.
Now people’s lives are getting faster and faster. In their daily consumption, people yearn for brainless shopping and simplified procedures. This is why many shopping platforms are optimizing their algorithms to provide customers with the fastest speed through data analysis. Recommend products they like, reduce customer decision-making time, thereby increasing customer satisfaction.
The blind box is a solution to the difficulty of choice.
Take Chaowan Blind Box as an example. Customers only need to choose one box from 12 boxes, and all the specific items are given to “luck”, which reduces the time for customers to make decisions. The consumption process is fast and concise. It seemed that someone had already helped them make a choice.
The “no-brain” step also reduces the possibility of consumers canceling consumption because of thinking, thereby motivating more customers to consume.
3. Social Identity: Herd Psychology
Social identification is composed of three basic processes: categorization, identification and comparison.
One of the criteria for people to judge right and wrong is to see what others think, especially when they have to decide what is the right behavior; people will work hard to gain the identity of the group they think they belong to, and imitate the group’s The actions of other people are also a herd mentality.
Many people are relatively new to blind boxes at first, but when their social circles slowly become popularWhen blind boxes become a trend and are recognized by many people, people tend to think that buying blind boxes is the correct action of the group they belong to, and they desire to be recognized by the group and conduct consumption behaviors based on the herd mentality.
In addition, the “comparison” process of social identification is also an important reason why blind boxes are more addictive.
In order to gain social respect, people will compare with others. When they draw a hidden blind box, they will be mentally happy by comparing themselves with those who did not draw, thus giving consumers a constant purchase of blind boxes. , Eager to get the motivation of hidden money.
4. The principle of scarcity + the psychology of showing off
The scarcity principle means that when there are fewer opportunities, content, or products, the greater their value. Consumers will increase their desire for a product due to the influence of the principle of scarcity when making purchase decisions.
The psychology of showing off is that when people acquire a scarce product, they will gain a sense of pride in comparison with other people in the group, and gain social recognition and honor.
In the blind box economy, because you don’t know what is inside the blind box before opening the blind box, and each series has hidden models, the chance of winning the hidden models is less than 1%, which increases the scarcity of blind boxes. Sex.
The “rare” hidden models have huge room for appreciation. On Xianyu, a hidden model of Bubble Mart sells for hundreds or even thousands of yuan, which has extremely high appreciation, which increases blindness. The value of the box, and the envy and admiration of blind box enthusiasts can satisfy consumers’ psychological pride.
To sum up, the blind box encourages consumers to continue buying behavior through the material potential huge appreciation space and spiritual satisfaction.
5. Diderot effect
The “Diderot effect” was proposed by French philosophers as the “increasing insufficiency effect”, that is, when you don’t get something, your mentality is very stable, but when you get it, you become less and less satisfied.
And this psychology happens to apply to the blind box economy. Many people who have never consumed toy blind boxes think that blind boxes are an “IQ tax”. They don’t understand why many people are obsessed with it, and when consumers buy a blind box Later, there will often be “matching psychology”, and continue to buy blind boxes of the same series, and want to collect all sets, so as to achieve a psychological balance and a sense of pleasure.
Chaowan Blind Box captures this psychological characteristic of consumers, and through continuous co-branding of different series of products, consumers will never catch up with the speed of “news” and continue to consume.
6. Cognitive Bias: Gambler’s Psychology
Cognitive bias refers to the phenomenon that when people perceive themselves, others or the external environment, their perception results are often distorted due to their own or situational reasons.
In the cognitive bias theory, there is a concept called “sunk cost effect”, that is, when people have paid an unrecoverable cost for a thing,Including time, money and energy, they often take irrational decisions, continue their original investments, or even increase the frequency of investment; the reason is that people do not want to lose the original cost, and there is a fluke mentality, always believing that their expectations can come.
Blind box economy uses this cleverly.
When people buy a blind box but do not open the goods they want, they will be based on the fact that they have already spent so much money, but still have not collected their favorite goods; giving up is equivalent to the previous money and energy spent The wasted psychology, coupled with the cognition that constantly strengthens the hint that one can get the blind box of his choice, so I can buy the blind box again.
03 Existing blind box classification
According to the price of blind boxes and the audience level, the blind boxes currently on the market are roughly divided into the following categories:
For categories with high audiences, currently few rely on joint activities and IP to form core selling points, and their core selling points are still focused on the product itself, rather than emotional factors; and for categories with low audiences, They prefer to attract customers through activities such as IP and co-branding and promote their purchase intentions.
This is related to the customer’s motivation to purchase the product.
At present, the blind box products with a wide audience in the market, the main reason customers buy them is because of “affordable”, “high cost performance” and “just need”; and the beauty of the product and the story behind it are for the customer’s purchase In terms of decision-making, it is only a secondary factor. The main purpose of merchants selling these products is to clean up inventory, sell small profits but increase sales or attract traffic.
Blind box products with lower audiences prefer to use IP to attract customers who are interested in this IP, and build the ability to empathize with customers; customers buy them based on feelings, trends or likes, emotions The value is greater than the practical significance, the product premium is higher, and the profit margin is higher.
Due to the difference in purchasing motivation, in the audience dimension, products with higher audiences pay more attention to practicality, while products with low audiences are more to guide customers to make spiritual consumption.
04 How to play marketing
1. Increase visibility: Omni-channel sales
Blind box economicalThe number one player, Bubble Mart, uses an online and offline omni-channel sales method.
Online, all major e-commerce platforms can see Bubble Mart’s flagship store; while offline, it adopts self-operated stores + pop-up stores + unmanned vending machines, actively in major first- and second-tier cities Shops have laid channels to make blind box series products visible to people all the time, increasing product exposure, and the laying of channels also makes it easier for people to buy blind boxes, which further promotes consumers’ buying behavior.
2. Increase topic level: cross-border joint name + IP promotion
The typical blind box gameplay is to adopt a cross-border co-branding model, add familiar IP elements to the product design, and enter groups interested in this IP with the “feelings” brand, which broadens the audience of the product , Increasing the topic and attention of the brand.
However, the choice of joint IP is also a science. It is not the hot IP that is suitable for cooperation. It is necessary to consider whether the IP and the product have commonality, and whether the image of the IP matches the image created by the brand.
On December 30, 2019, Laiyifen launched the New Year Nut Gift Box, and adopted the blind box gameplay, and cooperated with the national trend brand “Dong Lai Ye” to promote consumption through exquisite packaging with a new year. The desire to buy.
Dismantling this cross-border co-branding event, we can find some ideas for brand co-branding:
First, consider whether the main consumer characteristics of IP and brand overlap. The people who like “Dong Lai Ye” are mostly Gen Z who are interested in the national trend, and the people who like to buy New Year gift boxes are mostly concentrated in Gen Z. Because the target customers overlap, it will be more effective to drive potential. Of consumers make purchasing decisions;
Secondly, consider the commonalities between IP and products. Lai Yifen wants to launch a New Year gift box, so the festive and auspicious “Dong Lai Ye” is just in line with the meaning of the gift box;
Third, consider the commonalities between cooperative IP and brands. Both “Dong Lai Ye” and Lai Yi Fen belong to Chinese brands. Especially on traditional festivals such as New Year’s Day, using common Chinese characteristics to conduct marketing activities is bound to get twice the result with half the effort;
Fourth, consider whether this IP caters to the trend. The main consumers of Blind Box are the post-95s. They pay attention to trends, like things with a sense of freshness, and like to be on the forefront of fashion. IP in line with the current main trends can stimulate them to consume more, and the main trend of the country’s “east” “Lai Ye” is just in line with the current trend, so it is suitable for joint names.
3. Increase addiction: game fun
The difference between blind box products and other products is that the products are game-like when they are sold. When the buyer opens the blind box, it is like opening a Pandora’s box. The mystery and unknownness give the customer a sense of mystery. A brand-new consumer experience, shopping gamification, gives customers a sense of satisfaction on a spiritual level.
With the development of blind boxes, the newThere are also more and more ways to play: such as the “shake and shake” prompt form of the online blind box machine; also the form of co-branding with other brands and buying a product randomly (such as Bubble Mart, Hollyland, Haagen-Dazs) Joint activities); there are also forms to expand the characteristics of the product and increase the uniqueness of the product, such as the “archaeological blind box” launched by the Henan Museum. Consumers need to use a Luoyang shovel to “dig” to obtain the contents of the blind box. Antiquities model, the box-opening mode is highly related to the “antiquities” characteristics of the product.
Interesting shopping experience makes consumers willing to bear a premium far higher than the value of the product itself, and the pleasure gained from the spiritual level increases the repurchase rate of the product.
From the perspective of the current development trend of the blind box economy, a shopping gamification form that combines the characteristics of the product itself and considers the consumer’s use scenario will make the product more unique, and thus from the increasingly fiercely competitive blind box To win the love of consumers.
4. Increasing desire: set hidden models
A major feature of the blind box is that each series has a hidden model with a very small chance of winning. In line with the principle of “scarce for valuables”, brands often use this as a selling point in marketing to get hungry. Marketing, increase the customer’s expectation of the product, so as to make multiple purchases.
5. Increase sociality: create a social app
Different from other types of products, blind box products with lower audiences are highly social, just like “social recognition—herd psychology” that analyzes consumer psychology, trendy blind box consumers buy blind boxes One of the motives for this is the desire to be recognized by the group.
Combined with this psychology of consumers, Bubble Mart has created the blind box social app “Paqu”. Consumers can not only obtain the latest information of their favorite designers, but also communicate and share with other consumers. The experience of the blind box meets the social needs of consumers, which makes consumers more enthusiastic about the blind box culture, which increases customer stickiness in a disguised form.
05 Potential risks of blind box economy
1. It is difficult to maintain the freshness of products continuously, and the competition of homogenized products intensifies
With the development of Chaowan Blind Box, new players continue to enter the market. At present, the more well-known blind box brands include Bubble Mart, Jiumu Sundries, 52TOYS, Twelve Dong Culture, etc. , The market share of enterprises is constantly challenged by competitors.
The profit model of Chaowan Blind Box mainly relies on the continuous launch of new series of products for sales, but the frequency of launching new products also needs to be considered.
On the consumer level, pushing new products too fast may cause dissatisfaction among senior consumers, believing that companies are over-consuming IP and have a deep sense of loss due to the difficulty of collecting a complete set of boxes, and consumers may become bored Sense-Chaowan Blind Box is an industry where spiritual consumption is greater than physical consumption, and it has to pay attention to consumers’ psychological feelings.
As far as the product level is concerned, it is difficult to guarantee the design sense of the blind box if the new speed is too fast, and the quality control is difficult to guarantee.
However, in the face of the increasingly fierce track and the pressure of profitability, companies are eager to quickly launch new products to drive sales.
The dilemma and increased competitiveness are also reflected in the company’s net profit margin:
In 2020, Bubble Mart’s net profit margin has fallen from 26.8% in 2019 to 20.85%. It can be seen that the market environment of Chaowan Blind Box is changing rapidly and competition is intensifying.
2. The hidden upper part of the blind box mode has potential legal risks
At the social level, the wind reviews of blind boxes are not very good. Many people condemn blind boxes as an IQ tax for young people.
At the beginning of 2021, the China Consumers Association reminded operators to abide by the code of conduct when selling blind boxes, and consumers should purchase blind boxes rationally; then, in April and May, the China Consumers Association once again reminded to be cautious when buying air tickets. Blind boxes, and critique the marketing form of blind boxes for pets that violate public order and good customs.
Therefore, when conducting blind box marketing, it is necessary to balance profitability and morality. Customers cannot blindly make money, otherwise the potential legal risks may cause the company to fall into a moral and legal crisis.
3. For products with a wide audience and high prices, it is difficult to make a profit and the model cannot be sustained for a long time
For the niche blind box of trendy play, the product has a higher premium and substantial profits.
However, for products with high prices and a wide audience, the existing blind box format is more like a seller providing buyers an opportunity to squeeze wool, increasing the topic of the event through the “blind box + low price” form With regard to the degree and platform traffic, merchants use self-posting costs to pull new platforms, which is inherently difficult to form a long-term sustainable profit model.
Moreover, the value of traffic obtained through this model is not necessarily very high. Most people participate just with the mentality of joining in the fun. Whether it can reach the goal of new customers, most of them are target customers and convert them into active users. Still a huge unknown.
06 Development, Prospects and Suggestions
For the development prospects of the blind box economy, because the trendy toys and hand-made toys with a lower audience have a certain scale; this time we are discussing mainly the categories with a higher audience, which are differentiated by price. , To discuss how the blind box economy can be applied to these categories.
For categories with relatively low prices, the main purpose of customers buying these products is still “cost-effectiveness” or “practicality.” “IP” or joint names may create premium opportunities for products, but the premium is far less than that of hand-made, trendy and other products.
For these brands, the blind box model is a good way to rejuvenate the brand, and it is also a way to increase product exposure and topicality when launching new products. I think these markets may need to pay attention to this in the future.Point:
1) Segment the market, understand the characteristics of your target customers, and choose the appropriate IP or brand co-branding for marketing activities
For low-priced blind box products with a wider audience, although the premium value that IP can give is limited, these surprises are indeed opportunities to increase brand exposure and increase customer repurchase rates. Brands should understand their goals The characteristics of customers, through the selection of IP and brands related to their preferences, to create momentum for product popularity.
2) Innovate blind box gameplay and expand the application field of blind box
In recent years, the blind box model has continued to innovate.
There is a new way to play in the gift box of Fanta co-branded Bubble Mart: a box of 11 cans of soda and a blind box of trendy play are covered by the cardboard of the box. Consumers not only need to guess that the cardboard will be a blind box, take it After arriving at the blind box, you have to open the box again, which can be described as the quadratic form of the blind box.
There are also those that combine the fan economy: Luckin Coffee launched the form of buying Liu Haoran’s Q version of the blind box by buying antler cups, and Wangwang’s step out of the snack circle, launching the blind box around snacks-“I want to pinch” series.
The blind box economic model should not be limited to only buying a product. Randomly get a toy box or buy a lucky bag. Consumers will get tired of the same way, and the homogeneity will be serious, and the blind box will be lost. The original intention of the concept to increase freshness.
Brands should combine the characteristics of the products, innovate blind boxes in their own products, explore the possible expansion of the industry range, and differentiate from other competitors’ marketing models, so as to leave a deeper impression on the public.
3) Focus on product quality, keep in mind that blind boxes are only a marketing aid strategy, don’t put the cart before the horse
For products with a wide audience, users seldom “use love to generate electricity” to purchase products; the blind box is only an auxiliary means if it is costly. Without good quality support, sales cannot be promoted. Users pay more attention to practicality. , The tolerance for products is small.
Therefore, the brand should focus on the product itself, and don’t put the cart before the horse.
For categories with relatively high prices, the main purpose of blind box economy is to attract traffic and convert these traffic into active users. Then how to activate these traffic is their core issue.
The author has the following suggestions:
① Innovate the mode of buying blind boxes, giving customers more power to choose.
High unknowns are the main feature of blind boxes, although this reduces the customer’s choice difficulty to a certain extent and increases the level of customer expectations.
However, the higher the price of the product, the more rational people will consume it. This also causes the public to be reluctant to consume blind boxes among high-priced products, because when they get a product they don’t like, the loss is lower than that The higher value products and risk-averse characteristics make people cautious about the blind box model.
This also explains why the high-priced “travel” blind box products can only attract most people to buy them at ultra-low prices-because when they are not in the “high price” range, people take less risk. Only then can the decision-making power be handed over to the “blind box” without burden.
Based on the cautious attitude of consumers, when the blind box products are incorporated into high-priced products, part of the right to choose can be given to customers, and part of the right to choose to “randomness”.
For example, when doing “ticket blind box”, you can classify destinations according to regions (East China, South China, Central China, Southwest, etc.), or according to the attributes of tourist locations (such as “Island type”” “Ancient towns”, “prosperous cities”, etc.), or other dimensions, allowing consumers to choose the categories they want to go to, and then randomly select destination air tickets from these categories, so that customers can be more confident in choosing The right to the blind box increases product satisfaction and reduces the “blind box risk” they need to bear.
② Normalize the blind box form, appropriately increase the price of the blind box, present the opportunity for active users to draw the blind box, and revitalize the traffic.
Nowadays, the blind boxes of high-priced products are more of an attempt on specific holidays and cannot be operated as normal as the tide play. Most of the platforms that sell these blind boxes focus on “blind boxes” to attract traffic. .
However, as mentioned in the previous article, it is difficult for many consumers to become active users after the event is over. Even if more new users are added to the blind box event during a certain period, the value of these users is not high.
In the HOOK model, users need certain incentives to make long-term investments. In the later operation of the platform, you can consider the form of a point system to give active users the opportunity to draw blind boxes, thereby encouraging new users to become active user.
In addition, in the normalized blind box model, the product can still be sold at a price lower than the normal price, but it is not suitable to sell the product at a price lower than the cost, resulting in a situation of “losing money and earning yells” .
③ Bundled sales, one-stop service creates more profit opportunities.
The current high-priced blind boxes are mainly based on the seller’s out-of-pocket payments, or in the form of very low profits, using “blood earning” as a gimmick to attract consumers to purchase.
However, such a loss-making/low-profit model is definitely not long-lasting, and the business risks are also large. After paying high costs, it is difficult to say whether it can achieve the expected goals of marketing activities.
The feature of the blind box is to let consumers give the right of choice to random, consumers do not want to spend too much time in product selection, just like the selling point of the blind box ticket-“come on a trip that just walks away.” Similarly, there is the characteristic of giving users less time to think.
Then enterprises need to seize this feature, help consumers make decisions through “randomness”, consider the use scenarios of blind box products, extend the industry chain, and make blind boxesNot only sells one product, but the supporting products can also be combined into a blind box, which not only allows consumers to enjoy one-stop service without thinking, but also increases the opportunities for sellers to make profits.
For example, in the blind box of air tickets, consumers buy air tickets for travel, then when they arrive at the destination, accommodation, eating, and play are also issues that need to be considered. For example, if the “air ticket + hotel” category,” air ticket + Blind boxes such as catering “category”, “ticket + souvenir” category, etc., can then gain more potential profit-making opportunities for platforms and businesses through a more comprehensive one-stop service combination.
Through the combination of “low-priced unsold products + high-priced hot products”, the unsalable inventory is emptied, and there are more profit opportunities due to bundling sales.
It should be noted that the bundling mode requires higher product synergy-how to ensure that the products are perfectly combined into a blind box, which puts forward requirements for the coordination ability of the enterprise.
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