How long can the streaming media brother be arrogant?

Editor’s note: This article is fromWeChatThe public account “Those Things on the Internet” (ID: hlw0823), author: Xiao Ma.

Netflix did not expect that he finally welcomed his enemy.

According to the latest data, on Monday, local time in the United States, AT&T announced that it would split Warner and merge with Discovery to form a new independent media company. The transaction size was as high as 43 billion U.S. dollars. After this merger, The valuation of the new company will reach 120 billion U.S. dollars.

This is regarded as another measure used by American television media to resist Netflix. It is less than three years since AT&T officially acquired Warner.

Warner launched the streaming media HBO Max in May last year, with more than 10,000 hours of Warner Bros. premium content, and HBO Max has already gained 63.9 million subscribers worldwide. Another player, Discovery+, has 1,500 worldwide. Million subscribers.

The merger is fierce, and the sword is pointed at Netflix.

And Netflix itself is also facing considerable challenges. The latest drama “Love, Death and Robots 2” has a sharp start to word-of-mouth, and is regarded as the “big face” of Netflix’s high-quality dramas, holding a huge amount of IP. However, the stamina is insufficient, and the growth of long video slows down. Not to mention that Youtube and Apple TV are also deploying long-term video services, and Netflix is ​​about to usher in the “defense” battle.

So, how many odds does Netflix dominate? How likely are the major giants to encircle Netflix? Will Netflix’s shortcomings become a fortress to be attacked in the future?

Let’s see below.

Attack: fierce Netflix

19 years after listing, Netflix’s stock price has risen from the initial $1 to $579. As of 20:00 on May 21st, Netflix, Netflix’s closing price is 498, even though it has fallen from its highest point. But it did not affect Netflix’s status as a star company in the US stock market.

We now think of Netflix as a streaming media company, but it was actually a movie rental company in its early days.

In 1997, Hastings, the later founder of Netflix, was fined $40 for breach of contract because he failed to return the rental video discs on time. It was this experience that allowed Hastings to start offering rental movies by mail. In the same year, Hastings and his former colleague Mark Randolph co-founded Netflix.

Since then, thanks to the more flexible and convenient leasing business, Netflix’s service for shipping and renting movies has grown rapidly. In 2002, Netflix was listed on the Nasdaq.

At this time, Netflix relied on the prosperity of the mail leasing business, and achieved revenue of 45.77 million US dollars in 2002 alone. Relying on the accumulation of the DVD market, Netflix innovatively created a “resource pack” rental service.

In 2005, the DVD business began to show a declining trend, and Netflix began to launch subscription services and personalized recommendation services quickly, gradually forming the embryonic form of today’s streaming media service company.

Netflix began to focus on content creation after 2007. The original drama series “Women’s Prison” and “The Crown” have become popular TV shows in the past decade. In the following ten years, Netflix has received more than 300 Emmy nominations, 17 Golden Globe nominations, and many Oscars.

The legend of Netflix is ​​that its founder Hastings is also a supporter of technology companies. He was a director of Facebook. During 2007-2012, Hastings also served as a member of the board of directors of Microsoft. , Which makes Netflix enjoy a great reputation in the technology sector.

And Netflix has also pushed its stock price to the highest point of US$579 in the past ten years, reaching a market value of nearly US$300 billion.

Netflix’s vigor, but still hidden worries.

The crux: Netflix is ​​still going through the robbery

According to Netflix’s latest financial report, as of the first quarter of 2021, Netflix’s global paying users have reached 208 million. Compared with the tens of millions of users in the previous quarter, Netflix has only increased by more than 3 million in this quarter. Subscribing to new users, there has been a huge drop.

In terms of revenue, Netflix achieved revenue of 7.163 billion yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 24.2. However, in the second half of the financial report, Netflix’s stock price continued to fall. As of May 21 this year, Netflix The stock price has fallen by 14.8%.

The ability of Netflix to grow can be summed up in one sentence, that is, “American cable television is too expensive.” That’s why Netflix was born. Every monthThe tariff of $19.9 or even $9.9 is far less than the cost of U.S. cable TV, which is often hundreds of dollars. Moreover, the resource copyright of U.S. cable TV is not much, but Netflix has gained popularity through its massive resources and self-made drama model.

In other words, the first problem faced by Netflix is ​​that if U.S. cable television also starts to “photograph cats and tigers”, Netflix’s advantage will be greatly reduced, and the relationship between users and U.S. cable television and communications companies will be greatly reduced. It is more stable than Netflix’s subscription system. If it catches up in terms of tariffs and resources, Netflix’s situation will be in danger.

Market analysts expect that Netflix’s user growth in the first quarter will be at least 5 million. The actual 3.98 million is far from reaching expectations, which makes capital start to worry about this.

The second point, if you pay attention to Netflix itself, then Netflix is ​​only in a growth dilemma, but if you look at the streaming media industry, you will find that Netflix has been fighting away with youtube, facebook, and even tiktok. .

YouTube has started to focus on medium and long videos in 2019, and has accumulated more than 15 million subscribers; YouTube itself is mainly short and medium videos, and the development of medium and long videos is considered to complement its business sector. Shortcomings.

In addition to youtube, there are short video companies such as tiktok. Although short video and long video services are not on the same track, they are actually grabbing users’ attention. Furthermore, it’s how much time users stay in the app. Competition.

Short and fragmented short videos are coming. According to data, the average user market of tiktok in 2021 has reached 88 minutes, an increase of 16% year-on-year, while Netflix has dropped by 75. The impact of video is self-evident.

The third and most important point is Netflix itself. Netflix has been known for its high-quality content for many years and has won numerous awards. This is related to Netflix’s heavy investment in content.

According to data, during the epidemic last year, Netflix’s self-produced drama projects decreased by 80%. In the first quarter of this year alone, Netflix suspended more than ten self-produced dramas., Which indirectly led to “saving” $160 million in cash on Netflix’s books.

However, for a streaming media company, there is no continuous high-quality content as a moat, and the loss of subscribers will become inevitable. Judging from the growth of the number of subscriptions in the last year, Netflix has fallen into a period of weak growth.

Then, following the follow-up of unsustainable high-quality content, Netflix’s latest “Death Machine 2” has hit the streets, and may become a sign that Netflix has stepped down from the altar.

At this time, Netflix not only has to fight youtube, facebook, and tiktok on three sides. The lack of short video layout will make Netflix very passive, and the tighter pace of US cable TV will also make Nai Fei is exhausted, involved in the vortex of user growth competition, and has to solve its own internal content supply, which is also the most critical point. The next Netflix was dangerous.