This article is from WeChat official account:Sanwan Food Research Institute (ID: sanwanshipin) span>, author: Jiayin (Thirty Thousand Capital), original title: “Sequoia Challenger invests in the top game, 4D analysis of new opportunities for the baking track”, the title picture comes from Visual China< /span>
Recently, Sequoia Capital and Challenger Capital invested in the new Chinese dim sum brand Hutouju Standard Chartered Bakery, the egg yolk pastry brand Xuanma completed the B round investment of Jinding Capital and Maixing over 100 million yuan, and the Dorayaki brand Zetian The company completed the first round of ten million yuan financing of Tiantu Capital and He Boquan, and the light food brand pastoralism received investment from Yuanqi Forest…From Chinese dim sum chain, to e-commerce brand, to western-style meal replacement baking brand, the baking industry has many Each subdivision direction has received unprecedented attention from the capital industry.
What is the competitive landscape of the domestic baking track market? What are the development trends and venture capital opportunities? This article will systematically sort out the development context and market situation of China’s baking industry, hoping to inspire everyone.
1. Overview of my country’s baking industry
1. Classification of baking
Baked food is a convenience food baked by a series of complex process methods with flour, yeast, salt, sugar and water as basic raw materials, adding appropriate amount of fat, dairy, eggs, additives, etc., from the perspective of classification, According to the product type and shelf life, it can be divided into different types.
According to types, baked goods can be divided into four categories: bread, pastries, cakes and other desserts; according to the shelf life, baked goods can be divided into short-guaranteed products(1~15 days), Zhongbao products (1-3 months) and Changbao products (over 6 months) three categories.
2. Industry development process
Although the modern baking industry originated in the West, baked pastries have a long history in our country. Pastry making has appeared as early as the Shang and Zhou dynasties. Traditional baked goods are mainly moon cakes, peach pastries and other pastries, as well as local specialty pastries. , The consumption scenes are mainly traditional festivals and desserts after meals, and the production is mainly hand-crafted workshops, and industrialization has not been formed.
my country’s modern bakery industry started in the 1980s. After more than 30 years of development, my country’s bakery industry has diversified its business operations and continuously enriched its categories. Its development can be divided into four major development stages.
From 1980 to 1989, my country’s modern baking industry began to emerge. Western-style bakery cakes entered the mainland market from Hong Kong and Taiwan, and the product production model was dominated by family workshops. The product category was single and the penetration rate was low.
From 1990 to 1999, foreign brands entered the domestic market one after another, and domestic modern bakery companies appeared and developed. In 1995, the Belgian Artal Group invested and built a factory in Shanghai to produce and sell Mancodon brand bread; in 1997, the Korean bakery and snack leader Orion set up a factory in China for production and sales. At the same time, domestic bakery and pastry retail companies such as Xu Fuji, Taoli Bread and Panpan Food have been established and developed.
From 2000 to 2009, bakery companies entered a period of rapid growth, and offline brand bakery shops developed. In 2003, the Singaporean bakery chain brand Bao Xinyu opened its first store in China; in 2004, the Korean bakery brand Paris Baguette opened its first store in Shanghai, and the Japanese bakery leader Yamazaki Bread established its Shanghai branch; in 2007 , Bimbo, the international bakery and snack leader, set up a subsidiary in Beijing and began its regional layout in China. Foreign brands continue to increase their market share in the domestic market by virtue of their brand and capital advantages.
Since 2010, local companies have gradually dominated the market, and various new models have emerged. The bakery industry presents a diversified format. In addition to various traditional Chinese and Western bakery and pastry companies, many Internet cake brands and online bakery brands have emerged. purchaseThe convenience of buying channels and the trend of bakery meal replacement have promoted the rapid development of my country’s bakery industry.
3. Industry market size
Baked food is the largest category in the snack food industry, with a fast growth rate, low industry concentration, and large room for development.
According to Frost&Sullivan data, the market size of my country’s snack food industry in 2018 was 1.0297 billion yuan, and the CAGR from 2012 to 2018 was 12%. From the perspective of the proportion of the sub-industry, baked food is the largest category in the snack food industry in my country, accounting for 24%, while the second-ranked confectionery chocolate accounts for only 12%.
From the perspective of growth rate, the CAGR of baked goods from 2013 to 2019 was 11.2%, which is the second fastest growing category among snack foods; from the perspective of industry concentration, the CR5 of baked food is only 11%, which is snack food The sub-categories with the lowest concentration in the market. It can be seen that the market size of bakery and snack foods is the largest, and the market has maintained a high growth rate. The market concentration is the lowest. The bakery track has a lot of presence in both the industry and the new start-up companies. Great room for development.
The stock market size of my country’s bakery industry is about 230 billion, and the potential market space in the future is about 470 billion
According to Euromonitor data, the retail sales of baked goods in my country in 2019 was 231.7 billion yuan, and the CAGR from 2013 to 2019 reached 11.2%. The global bakery market has exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan, and my country is the second largest bakery market in the world after the United States.
From the perspective of per capita consumption of baked goods, in 2017, the per capita consumption of baked goods in mainland my country was 7.2kg, and that in Hong Kong and Japan was 16.3kg and 22.5kg respectively. The staple foods in the United Kingdom and the United States are as high as 48.5kg and 40.2kg respectively. The average per capita consumption of baking in the world is 18.7kg, which is much lower than the average consumption in my country.
From the perspective of per capita consumption of bakery products, in 2019, the per capita consumption of bakery products in mainland China was US$24.6, which is at the bottom 25% of the global level. The food culture of Hong Kong, China, and Japan, which are similar to mainland China, are US$76.3, US$99.9, and US$161 respectively, which are 3.1 times, 4.1 times, and 6.5 times that of my country, respectively.
We measure the future potential market space of the baking industry in mainland my country by benchmarking Hong Kong, Taiwan and Japan. Considering China’s vast territory, the level of economic development in different regions differs greatly, which leads to different levels of consumption among people.
Therefore, according to the level of economic development, Chinese cities are divided into lines, and the per capita baking consumption amount of different tier cities is converted into coefficients, and then the population is multiplied by the future potential per capita baking consumption amount of each tier city, and then Calculate the potential market size of my country’s baked goods retail end.
Through calculations, take the most conservative value, and the potential market space of the retail end of my country’s baking industry is about 470 billion.. Currently, the retail sales of bakery products in my country is about 230 billion, indicating that the bakery industry in my country still has room for at least double the market increment in the future.
From the perspective of sub-categories, cakes and pastries are the two largest sub-categories in my country’s baking industry
In 2019, the market size of cakes and pastries in my country was 98.2 billion yuan and 90.2 billion yuan respectively. As an imported product, cakes are mainly birthday celebration scenes in the early stage of development, and pastries are mainly traditional festival celebrations or gift-giving scenes. In the future, as cakes and pastries extend to casual afternoon tea and other daily scenes, consumption frequency will be effectively increased and the market will continue to be promoted. Heavy volume.
The current bread stock market is relatively small, at 40.4 billion, which is still less than half of cakes and pastries. Bread is usually eaten as a staple food in Western countries. With the development of meal replacement trends in my country’s bakery foods in the future, bread categories that have meal replacement properties and are easy to carry and store are expected to usher in rapid development.
4. Market competition pattern
Dali Foods, Taoli Bread, Panpan, Oreo and Xu Fuji are the top 5 companies in my country’s bakery industry. According to Euromonitor data,Dali Foods, which has the largest market share, has been declining since 2015. As of 2019, Dali Foods accounted for 3.7% of the baking market, which is a downward trend compared to nearly 6% in 2015. Significantly, the market share of peach and plum, which focuses on short-term bread, continues to increase, reaching 3.3% in 2019, which is constantly approaching Dali Food.
Compared with other snack food sub-categories, the market concentration of bakery products in my country is much lower than that of sweets and savoury snacks; compared with other countries’ market concentration, it is also much lower than that of Japan, the United Kingdom, Mexico, the United States and other countries. It shows that my country’s baking market as a whole is in the preliminary stage of development, and the market structure is scattered. The annual revenue of my country’s top baking companies is still less than tens of billions, and there are no market players who have an absolute advantage. There is a lot of room for development whether it is an original market participant or a newly-entered company.
From the enterpriseFrom the perspective of industry operating costs, raw materials for bakery products usually account for 60-80% of the total cost, direct labor costs account for about 5-10%, manufacturing expenses account for 5-10%, and logistics costs account for 5-10%. For short-term prepackaged products such as peaches and plums, high requirements for logistics and product turnover are required, so logistics costs account for a high proportion of the cost structure; the gross profit margin of ready-made foods in bakery stores such as cakes and pastries is usually higher than that of pre-packaged breads product.
The net profit margin of bakery food companies is usually between 8-15%, while the median net profit margin of A-share food companies is 7.7%. It can be seen that the profits of bakery food companies are generally higher than other food companies. Higher profit margins are also conducive to relatively generous marketing and promotion expenses in the early stages of development.
From the perspective of R&D expenditures of baking companies, AThe median R&D expense ratio of listed companies in the food sector is 1.06%. Among the listed companies in the bakery sector, the research and development expense ratio of Taoli Bread is only 0.19%, and Yuanzu Foods is 0.74%, which is far below the median. The bakery ingredient companies Nanqiao Foods, Ligao Foods, and Hairong Technology are respectively 3.72%, 2.91%, and 3.87%, which are much higher than the median. It can be seen that upstream bakery ingredient manufacturers’ R&D expenditures account for a high proportion of operating income. In downstream bread and pastry production and sales enterprises.
2. Demand-side analysis of the baking industry
From the perspective of consumption scenarios, people’s consumption of baked goods can be divided into four scenarios: staple food meal replacement, casual afternoon tea, holiday gifting, and birthday celebrations. Different consumption scenarios have different consumer categories of baked products.
-
Scenario of staple food meal replacement: At present, my country is dominated by breakfast consumption scenarios. From the perspective of product categories, Mainly Western-style baked goods such as short-bread bread and toast.
-
Casual afternoon tea scenes: home, travel, office leisure and other places to satisfy people’s pastime and enjoyment Demand, the category involves a wide range of bakery products such as Chinese and Western pastries, small cakes, and bread.
-
Holiday gift-giving scenes: Gifts for Mid-Autumn Festival and Spring Festival, or as social gifts, etc. inMainly style pastries.
-
Birthday celebration scenes: birthdays and anniversaries celebrations, mainly cakes, high unit price per customer, consumption Low frequency.
1. The trend of meal replacement for baked goods is obvious
Baked food is usually consumed as a staple food in the West. In the early stage of my country’s development, it was mainly used as an after-dinner dessert or a holiday gift.
As the young generation of post-90s consumers become the main consumer, food consumption patterns and preferences have changed. In high-tier cities, workplaces and on the way to work have gradually become one of the main scenes for eating breakfast. The diet tends to be convenient and fast. Baking Pre-packaged food has become an important choice. On the other hand, the single population and the aging trend have increased the number of people living alone, which will also promote the growth of demand for baked meal replacement products that are easy to store.
According to the statistics of “Breakfast China” released by Mintel in June 2019, the penetration rate of most Western breakfasts in my country is nearly 50%, gradually approaching the penetration rate of traditional breakfasts such as porridge, wontons, and noodles. The penetration rate of bread/toast products has reached 62%. Compared with long-term bakery products with a shelf life of 6 months, short-term bakery products have fewer additives and a fresh taste, which is in line with consumers’ preference for freshness and health. Consumers’ increasing demand for convenient breakfast will promote the rapid growth of the short-term bread market.
2. Freshness and health are the main considerations for consumers when buying snack foods
According to the report released by Mondelez International and HarrisPoll, when Chinese consumers buy snack foods, freshness, naturalness of ingredients, intestinal health, low sugar and low fat are the main considerations for consumers. factor. In addition, according to McKinsey’s “China Consumer Survey Report 2020”, 72% of urban consumers said they are actively pursuing a healthier lifestyle; 60% of consumers in large cities said they would often check packaging In the ingredient list of foods, products that look healthier will be selected; 55% of the respondents said that “healthy and natural ingredients” are their first choice when buying products, in addition to concepts such as “sugar-free” and “organic” It is also more important. It shows that Chinese consumers pay high attention to the freshness and health of food.
From the perspective of online pastry sales, the growth rate of the number of healthy pastry consumers and sales scale is much higher than that of the overall pastry, and the growth rate is accelerating; the consumer penetration rate and sales share of healthy pastry in the pastry industry are increasing year by year. It shows that consumers’ demand for healthy pastries is rising.
3. Innovative flavor and national tide pastry gift boxes are favored by consumers
From the perspective of online snacks and gift box consumption categories, pastries/snacks occupy the third place in the sub-category consumption. Although lower than nuts and puffed foods, the proportion has increased the fastest, indicating that consumers are The demand for pastry/snack gift boxes continues to increase.
From the perspective of consumption scenes, the consumption scenes of snack gift boxes continue to extend. In addition to festive gifts, Snack gift boxes also occupy a strong user mind in daily scenes such as afternoon tea/night supper and souvenirs strong>; From the perspective of the crowd, girlfriends, children/babies, and boyfriends are the key gift objects for the category. Baked pastries were mainly given as gifts in traditional festivals such as Mid-Autumn Festival and Spring Festival in the early days. With the daily consumption of baked pastries by younger generation users, their consumption scenes will continue to extend to the daily social gift gifting scenes, increasing their consumption frequency.
The consumption of Guofeng gift boxes has grown rapidly. In 2020, the growth rate reached 7.9 times compared with 2018; in the search for related keywords, “old brand” and “old-fashioned” are prominent, indicating that consumers recognize the domestic products of Guochao elements; , Health, nutrition, high-end, delicious, etc. are also important factors for consumers.
The younger generation born in the 1990s lived in a relatively affluent era, possessing strong cultural self-confidence and a strong sense of identity with local culture, which promoted the explosion of national tide and domestic products. my country has a long history, a vast land and abundant resources, and there are many types of traditional pastries and local specialty pastries with different ingredients and craftsmanship. Baking companies can tap the characteristics of traditional pastries and the cultural attributes behind them, give them new vitality, and develop pastry products that meet the taste and external aesthetic needs of young people. Chinese pastries are expected to emerge as new brands that lead consumer trends.
4. The cake should not only be healthy and delicious, but also beautiful and interesting
Nowadays, cakes have gradually expanded from simple birthday celebrations in the early days to various festivals, celebrations, weddings, and leisure afternoon tea. The extension of the consumption scene has increased the frequency of purchase. At the same time, consumers have also put forward more requirements for the cake itself, not only to be delicious and healthy, but also to meet the emotional and individual needs of consumers.
The cake has been continuously upgraded from its external appearance to its raw materials. The appearance of the cake fits different consumption scenarios, expressing the emotional sustenance and blessings of consumers. From the perspective of raw materials, in addition to basic ingredients such as cream, fruit, and cake embryos, the ingredients are continuously enriched, such as bean paste, red velvet, durian flavors, etc., and the ingredients are enriched and healthy.
3. Supply-side analysis of the baking industry
From the perspective of the supply side, according to different distribution channels, baked food companies can be divided into three types: bakery chain stores, offline retail brands, and online e-commerce brands. It should be noted that many brands currently adopt an omni-channel operation model, which is no longer limited to a single channel. The above division method only classifies companies according to the main distribution channels of the brand in the early stage of development or the main source of operating income.
1. Baking chain stores
Bakeries chain stores usually set up stores in densely populated commercial and residential areas of the city, set up central factories around the city to produce finished or semi-finished products and distribute them to stores for sale, or take the approach of front-shop and back-factory to make fresh-baked products in the store And sales, involving various types of products, such as cakes, Chinese and Western pastries, bread and other bakery products.
8.2% in 18 years.
The proportion of bakery stores in new first-tier and second-tier cities is also showing a downward trend; while the proportion of stores in cities below third-tier cities is on the rise, with its proportion rising from 48.8% in 2016 to 51.8% in 2018, indicating The baking market is accelerating its penetration into lower-tier cities.
From the perspective of bakery store types, mainly bakery and cake stores, but the proportion is declining, from 84.6% in 2016 to 80.9% in 2018; The proportion of Chinese pastry stores is on the rise, from 6.2% in 2016 to 10.4% in 2018, but the overall proportion is still low, and there is still much room for improvement in the future.
Consumption from bakery storesAccording to the portraits of consumers, female consumers account for as high as 76.9%, and they are the mainstream consumers in bakery stores. In terms of age distribution, 35.1% of bakery shop consumers are between 25 and 30 years old, indicating that young people who have just entered the workplace are the typical group of bakery shops; followed by 30-35 year-old consumers, accounting for 22.2% .
In general, 75% of bakery shop consumers are between 20 and 35 years old. It can be seen that young people, especially young female consumers, are the main force in bakery shop consumption.
From the perspective of the distribution of per capita consumption price of bakery stores, the average per capita consumption price of bakery stores in first-tier cities in 2019H1 is 45 yuan, which is twice the average per capita consumption price of third-tier cities. 87% of bakery stores in third-tier and lower cities have an average consumption price of less than RMB 30 per capita, and a per capita consumption price of RMB 20. Low-end consumption is still the mainstream.
1.1 Comprehensive Western-style baking chain stores
Western-style integrated baking chain stores are opened in densely populated commercial areas and communities. They are mainly large and medium-sized street stores and shopping malls. Most of them provide visualized on-site decoration and processing. The stores usually have seats for consumers to eat in. In addition to bakery products such as cakes, pastries, and breads, it also sells coffee, juice and other beverages. The product categories are rich and the prices are higher. Market participants include foreign companies such as Christine, Bread Talk, Paris Baguette, and local brands such as Hollyland and Wedome.
The gross profit margin of comprehensive western-style bakery products is 50%~70%, and the gross profit margin is relatively high. However, due to the large storefront, high fixed cost expenditures such as high rent and labor costs, the expenses are high, and the net profit margin is usually 5%. Even lower. In general, the overall profitability of comprehensive Western-style bakery shops is poor, showing the characteristics of high gross profit margin, high expenses, and low net profit margin.
In recent years, the growth of the integrated western-style bakery chain store model has been weak, and there have been frequent store closures. Since the first bakery stock Christine went public in 2012, revenue has been shrinking, losing money for 8 consecutive years, and the number of stores has also shown a downward trend year by year; Bread Talk has been closing stores frequently since 2017, and has been withdrawn. Cities. In 2020, Yizhiduo will close more than 70 stores in Shanghai.
Comprehensive Western-style bakery chain stores are experiencing growth difficulties, which are related to their business model and store positioning. Comprehensive Western-style bakery stores are more differentiated than productsThe modernization and service experience is inferior to the new-style tea, and the price-performance ratio is weaker than that of convenience stores and pre-packaged Chinese and Western baked goods. Its products are not sufficiently differentiated, so that consumers are willing to pay a high premium for this. Therefore, whether it is a consumer who pursues cost-effectiveness or a consumer who pursues an exquisite experience, comprehensive Western-style bakery chain stores cannot meet their needs well.
In addition, cakes are usually one of the main sources of income for integrated Western-style bakery stores, with high customer unit prices and high gross margins. However, in recent years, the rise of Internet cake brands has also caused a great squeeze on their cake business.
In short, market competition is constantly intensifying, and comprehensive Western-style bakery stores lack innovation and characteristics, and their development continues to decline.
1.2 Old Chinese Baking Chain Store
Many old Chinese bakery chain brands are Chinese time-honored brands, such as Guangzhou Restaurant, Daoxiang Village, Xinghualou. They focus on traditional festivals such as Spring Festival, Dragon Boat Festival, Mid-Autumn Festival or local specialties. They usually launch corresponding products according to different festivals, and they have strong Seasonality. There are currently two listed companies in the A-share market, namely Guangzhou Restaurant, which was founded in 1935, and Yuanzu Foods, which was founded in Taiwan in 1981.
The comprehensive food gross profit margin of Guangzhou Restaurant is around 50%, and the net profit margin is 13-15%; Yuanzu Food’s comprehensive gross profit margin is 62-65%, and the net profit margin is 11-13%. From the perspective of business composition, moon cakes are its main segmented product, accounting for about 40% of total revenue, and the sales revenue of moon cake products has shown a double-digit growth rate. Compared with comprehensive western-style bakery stores, Chinese-style bakery chain stores have better profitability. Chinese-style pastries mainly focus on traditional holiday gift-giving scenes, which are highly recognized in consumers’ minds. At present, there are few alternative products, and consumers’ demand for Chinese-style pastries continues to be stable. .
my country has a long history and culture. There are many national pastries and local special pastries, such as moon cakes, peach cakes, mung bean cakes, chestnut cakes, flower cakes, and osmanthus cakes. Pastries are still in a state of having categories and no brands. As we analyzed in the previous article, the younger generation of consumers gradually extend their pastry consumption to daily consumption, and they have a high degree of recognition of domestic products, and they like the national trend.
Therefore, excavate the characteristic pastries from various places, incorporate elements that young people like, and adopt packaging that is easy to store and carry, and turn holiday pastries into daily snack foods. There is still much room for improvement in the development of Chinese-style baked pastries.
1.3 Single-category Western-style bakery chain stores
While the comprehensive western-style bakery chain stores continue to close, the domestic western-style bakery chain brands have not stopped developing. The new western-style bakery mainly specializes in a single category, such as toast, dorayaki, egg tarts and so on. Usually opened in street stalls or open dining areas in shopping malls, the area is small, and the outside isthe Lord.
From the perspective of the business operation model, this type of store has a single product category, which is conducive to standardized production; the store area is small and the number of employees is small, reducing fixed costs such as rent and manpower. From the perspective of product types, a single-category Western-style general store focuses on a certain category, and its selling point highlights professionalism. Although the unit price of the product is much higher than that of ordinary bakery stores, it has better ingredients, good quality and taste, and the main difference is through High-quality products attract customers.
1.4 Guochao Chinese Baking Chain Store
Different from the monotonous decoration of the old Chinese bakery, the Guochao Chinese bakery incorporates the elements of the Chinese trend that young people like into traditional cakes. The decoration, packaging design and copywriting of the store are in line with the young people’s aesthetics, and the traditional cakes are combined with the modern Combination of flavors.
Like single-category Western-style bakery chains, these types of stores are usually opened in street stalls and open dining areas in shopping malls. They are mainly small and medium-sized stores with a small store area and no or only a few simple seats. The products are mainly outsourced, which reduces fixed costs such as rent and manpower.
From the product point of view, the Guochao Chinese bakery chain brand focuses on a certain hot cake, but at the same time the store also sells other products, such as the 100-year-old Tonghe, which focuses on lotus puff pastry and Queen’s tart, and the Momo dessert bureau, which focuses on mochi. The unit price of the product is low, usually less than 10 yuan, which reduces the threshold for consumers to make decisions and try.
The bakery industry has low barriers to entry. Both the old Chinese and Western-style bakery and the emerging Chinese and Western-style bakery have the problem of product homogeneity. Fashionable packaging and hot-selling items can gain temporary attention, but how to achieve sustainable and long-term development and increase the repurchase rate of consumers rather than just a short-term taste is the key to competition.
Looking at offline tea shops with the same low threshold, the tea industry has recently ran out of the main high-end, natural new tea brands such as Hey Cha and Naixue’s tea, as well as the main cost-effective and sinking market honey. Xuebing City, Gu Ming. Baking chain brands must determine the positioning of their products, meet the needs of target consumers, become a representative of a certain segment of products, and occupy the minds of users. Improve its own product research and development capabilities and new product iteration capabilities, build brand capabilities, maintain the stickiness of old users, and establish brand barriers.
According to the data of Meituan University’s School of Catering, the beverage store with the highest chain rate, after the single-store model runs through, with the help of capital, the top brand accelerates the race and enclosure, and the chain rate has increased dramatically. dust. The number of chain stores above the 1,000-store scale has stabilized at around 30% for three consecutive years. Michelle Ice City will enter the Wandian Club in 2020, and the number of Shuyi Burning Immortal Grass and Gu Ming has exceeded 5,000 and 4,000 respectively.
From the perspective of restaurant chaining rate, bakery and dessert shops are firmly in the top 3, and the chaining rate will reach 24% in 2020, which is much higher than the overall chaining rate of my country’s catering industry.(15%). Although the rate of chain bakery stores is relatively high, the current number of top bakery chain brand stores in my country does not exceed 1,000 stores, and the growth rate of established top bakery chain brands has slowed down, and even shows a negative growth trend. On the whole, there is no national chain brand in the bakery industry, and it is still dominated by regional small chains, with a scattered structure and room for integration in the market.
2. Offline retail brands
Offline channels are mainly divided into supermarkets, convenience stores and home-to-home models (new retail channels such as fresh food e-commerce, community group buying) three Kind of type. In terms of product types, it is divided into pre-packaged products with long-term insurance, medium-term insurance, and short-term insurance, mainly Western-style pastries such as bread/toast, which mainly meet the needs of consumers for meal replacement and casual afternoon tea scenes.
Market participants include traditional large food companies and start-up companies. Changbao pre-packaged bakery brands include veteran companies such as Orion and Daliyuan, and short-term breads include Taoli, Mancodun, and Dali Foods’ Meibeichen launched in 2018. In recent years, with the rise of the concept of health, the sales volume of Changbao Foods has shown a downward trend.
Short-term guarantee products have high requirements for product turnover. After years of intensive cultivation, large-scale snack food companies have improved their offline distribution system. The introduction of short-term guarantee baked goods can reuse the original distribution system. At the end of 2018, Dali Foods launched short-term bread Meibaking, 2In 020, revenue has exceeded 1 billion, with a growth rate of 40%, and has become a national operating brand.
For start-ups, traditional offline channels such as supermarkets and supermarkets have high entry costs and do not have advantages. However, in recent years, with the emergence of fresh food e-commerce, community grouping and other models, and the increase in the penetration rate of convenience stores, Start-ups can use emerging local life channels to pay attention to changes in offline traffic, and use offline traffic depressions to find opportunities for the rise of new brands.
3. Online e-commerce brand
From the perspective of online bakery consumers, like offline bakery chain stores, online bakery and pastry consumers are still dominated by women and the younger generation born in the 90s.
From the perspective of market size, baked pastries are the largest sub-category of casual snacks, and from the perspective of online channels, it is also the largest sub-category of the online snack industry. According to data from Magic Mirror Market Intelligence, in 2020, the annual sales of the snack food industry on the Tmall platform will be 70.7 billion, a year-on-year growth rate of 19.5%, and sales of 2.26 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 18.5%. Among them, pastry/snack sales were 17.44 billion, a year-on-year growth rate of 39%, much higher than the overall growth rate of the snack industry, indicating that consumers have a strong demand for online pastry/snack purchases.
In addition, it is worth mentioning that online consumers’ demand for high-end pastries has increased. Tmall’s high-end snack sales in 2020 will be 12.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46%, Accounting for 18.5% of the overall sales in the snack food industry. In 2020, the quarterly sales growth rate of the high-end snack market exceeded 15% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate of each quarter was significantly higher than that of the snack food industry as a whole. In terms of baked cakes, the year-on-year growth rate of the turnover, search exposure and conversion rate of pastry products in the high-price zone in 2020 is higher than that in the low-medium price zone.
Among the TOP10 high-end online snack brands, nuts and pastries are the main brands. Baked pastries occupy three seats, namely Maxim, Hollyland and Obela. However, sales are smaller than pastry nuts. With the increasing demand and acceptance of online high-end pastries, the sales volume of online high-end pastries will continue to increase in the future.
From the perspective of online snack brand competition, the three squirrels, Baicaowei, Liangpinpu, Laiyifen, and Obeira are the top 5 online brands in the snack industry in my country. The online sales of the five major brands in 2020 will be respectively It was 6.83 billion yuan, 4.81 billion yuan, 3.19 billion yuan, 740 million yuan, and 740 million yuan. The year-on-year growth rates of the five major brands were -23.2%, -3.5%, -9.9%, 14.9%, and 111.2%. Obera, its main business, is growing rapidly.
Among the top 15 brands of snack food online, there are 5 brands whose main business is cakes, namely Obela, Daoxiangcun, Maxim, Bibizan, and Oreo. Oubel is the largest in sales. Bella’s pastry/snack revenue was only 518 million, accounting for 3% of the total online pastry/snack category sales. It is worth mentioning that the revenue from the pastry category of the three squirrels whose main business is nuts has reached 940 million, accounting for 5.4% of the total sales of online pastries; the pastry revenue of Liangpin Store is 420 million, accounting for 2.4 of the total sales of online pastries %.
It shows that the online baking market is fragmented, and there are no top brands with obvious advantages. The brand still has a great opportunity for growth. On the other hand, it also shows that the pastry business of other types of snack companies has developed rapidly, facing other categories In the competition among leading enterprises, pastry enterprises must have their own distinct positioning and differentiated advantages. Tmall’s online baked pastry sales accounted for 7.5% of the overall retail sales of baked pastries, and there is room for improvement in the penetration rate of online baked pastries.
Currently, online bakery brands are mainly divided into two models to enter the market. One focuses on meal replacement needs, such as Obera, Seven Years and Five Seasons, Pastoralism, Born to be interesting, and has a clear sense of hoarding; the other is to make large orders. Tasting strategies, such as focusing on the durian moment of durian-flavored pastries, and Xuan Ma, focusing on egg yolk crisps.
From the perspective of hot words in online pastry category search, functional requirements such as staple food, healthy meal replacement and light meal have become the focus of consumers’ attention when buying pastries. The sales of Guochao snacks in MAT2019 has increased more than four times, showing the huge appeal of “Guochao”; in the snack food category, the sales of pastry products rank first in the top new domestic products, and maintain a high growth trend.
According to the Ipsos report, in 2020 Q3 Taobao Tmall sugar reduction/sugar-free concept top10 sales list, bakery and pastry related products occupy 6 places. It can be seen that when consumers buy baked cakes online, their main demands are freshness, meal replacement, sugar reduction, no oil, and hunger.
To sum up, online bakery and pastry consumption shows the trend of domestic products, meal replacement, sugar reduction, and freshness. Freshness and no additives determine the short shelf life. At present, the shelf life of baking products with short shelf life is usually within 7 or 15 days. Although my country’s logistics infrastructure is complete, such a short shelf life is still important for the production and logistics distribution of enterprises. A big test, and the low shelf life determines that consumers cannot stock up, and it is difficult to increase the unit price of a single purchase.
Therefore, how companies can appropriately extend the shelf life of products through production process and product innovation while maintaining a fresh taste and reducing various additives. This is a key breakthrough for the development of online baking short-guarantee products.
4. Healthy baked goods for children. The healthy consumption awareness of the younger generation of consumers will be transmitted to the purchase preference of children’s food. In recent years, the growth rate of children’s snacks has been much higher than the overall growth rate of zero foods. However, there has not yet been a focus on children’s health. Snacks are absolutely leading brands, and start-up brands have a lot of room for development.
5. Baking raw and auxiliary materials enterprises with R&D capabilities. The growth of downstream bakery products will continue to promote the development of upstream bakery raw materials companies. In the past six months, three bakery raw material manufacturers have successively landed in A shares, namely Hairong Technology, Ligao Foods and Nanqiao Foods. In addition, the formation of bakery consumption habits will promote the development of home baking, home baking appliances and tools and consumables will usher in development opportunities.
This article is from WeChat official account:Sanwan Food Research Institute (ID: sanwanshipin) span>, Author: Jiayin