The RMB spot exchange rate against the US dollar has appreciated by more than 1.2% in the first half of 2021.

On June 30, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.4612 at 16:30, depreciating 37 basis points.

In the first half of this year, the RMB spot exchange rate against the US dollar has appreciated by 786 points (1.2%).

Specifically, at the beginning of the year, the spot exchange rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar rose above the 6.50 mark. As the dollar index rebounded, the RMB against the U.S. dollar once approached 5.60, and then the U.S. dollar index fell back in the second quarter. The RMB against the U.S. dollar continued to rise. The highest spot exchange rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar appeared on May 31. After that, the central bank moved to adjust the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio, and the RMB against the U.S. dollar spot exchange rate immediately fell. In terms of the median price, the data from China Foreign Exchange Trade Center show , On June 30, the central parity of the RMB against the U.S. dollar was reported at 6.4601, a 34 basis point depreciation, ending three consecutive days of appreciation. Since the beginning of this year, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar has appreciated by 0.99%.

” In the first half of the year, the exchange rate between the US dollar and the RMB basically followed the US dollar, and the correlation is more obvious. Looking at the current RMB neutrality relative to the US dollar, there is no obvious The direction of the depreciation and appreciation of the US dollar, the next step is to pay attention to the actions of the Federal Reserve.” A foreign exchange trader at a joint-stock bank told a news reporter.

Looking forward to the second half of the year, CITIC Securities predicts that the RMB may still appreciate slightly in the next three months or so; and around August, it is expected that the Fed will begin to gradually release its normal policies. It is expected that the roadmap of reform will lead to a phased strengthening of the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to return to around 6.5 at the end of the year.

Shen Wanhongyuan believes that the RMB will gain or continue the path of appreciation within the year, but the appreciation will not happen overnight. The suppression of consumption and investment demand due to high industrial product inflation may become a potential risk point, or will increase the range of two-way fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate during the year. In mid-June, due to the Fed’s obvious hawkish bias, QE Taper expected the timing to advance, and the process of RMB appreciation was interrupted. It is expected that the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will be between 6.3-6.5 at the end of the year. From a long-term perspective, the People’s Bank of China has never changed the fundamentalsThe direction of the RMB exchange rate is the policy goal.

And Industrial Research believes that based on the high probability of the Fed in the second half of the year that the Taper timetable will be clearly defined, the US economy will outperform non-US economies, and the strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate and interest rates will promote the RMB The exchange rate ended its trend of appreciation and entered a wide range of fluctuations. The high point of the RMB will appear in the second or third quarter of 2021.