Unusual knowledge is to teach you to learn to correctly question your instincts and to throw away your previous thoughts when necessary.
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Common sense will make it easy for you to judge, and you are used to doing a “post-event”. If you are in your life and often unconsciously confirm your thoughts, you are likely to fall into the trap of common sense thinking. This article is from “Unusual Knowledge”
In the winter, the table on the table at home is only the age of Chinese cabbage. In the age when only watermelon can be eaten in summer, in the age of material shortage, in the age of traditional food culture, ice cream is limited by the summer season. Oden is a “glass of warmth” in winter. Therefore, as soon as the weather gets warmer, the store will shut down the East Cook from the shelves; when the weather gets cold, it will shrink the ice cream counter.
However, there is a convenience store to go the other way, it is 7-11. Even in the summer, the conspicuous position next to the checkout counter is boldly placed in Oden; even in the winter, ice cream still occupies a great position in the store. I did not expect it to sell very well. As a result, many other convenience stores have followed suit. Nowadays, this kind of product setting has become a kind of “common sense”, but today’s common sense is “anti-common sense” at the beginning.
In other words –
Your understanding of the world will hinder your understanding of the world.
Let me ask you another question: Do you think that soldiers from the city and soldiers from the countryside can better adapt to the life of the army? why?
You might say that of course rural soldiers are more accustomed to the military life because they are used to poverty and hardship, as well as high-intensity physical labor. But if I tell you next: the results of the study show that city soldiers will be more adaptable in the military life. Why do you think this is why? At this time, most people’s reaction will be to think about it, and then can give a lot of reasons that sound reasonable: for example, urban people are more accustomed to crowded environment, used to comply with rules and regulations, obey the leadership of the dispatch and command, dress code And the etiquette standards have better acceptance and so on.
Common sense brings you into the trap of thinking. Common sense will make you judge easily, and you are used to doing a “post-event”. If you are in your life and often unconsciously confirm your thoughts, you are likely to fall into the trap of common sense thinking.
Anti-common sense is to teach you to learn to question your instincts correctly and to throw away your previous thoughts when necessary.
What can be judged and solved with common sense?
Which things can’t be handled quickly with common sense, can you think only with anti-conventional knowledge?
What are the rules that can be followed in anti-common sense, and what tips and advice are pointed out for you?
In the book Anti-Common, I introduced a lot of experiments done by computational sociologists. For example, what factors on the web page determine the changes in the song list? How do you make the information you want to spread crazy? Can a salary increase improve employee performance? To what extent can a star advertise help a product sell well?
These experiments prove that common sense is not only prone to bias when interpreting a person’s individual behavior, but also prone to bias in explaining group behavior and historical events. In other words, some problems can be solved with common sense thinking, and some problems must be solved with anti-common thinking.
Dengkenwaz’s conclusion is that all simple system problems can be solved with common sense thinking, and some complex system problems can be solved with common sense thinking; and most complex system problems need Use anti-common thinking to solve.
So, what is the problem with simple systems? What is the problem with complex systems?
Simple system problems and complex system problems are not easy to do with this matter. It doesn’t matter. The key to distinguishing between these two types of questions is whether the problem can be described and modeled in scientific language.
For example, the GPS positioning system, which is much more complex than the tracking trajectory of Halley’s comet, is not easy to do, but also a simple system problem. Once the modeling is complete, you can use common sense thinking to answer and predict. As long as you use the map software on your smartphone, you can follow its instructions to get to your destination.
Compared with simple system problems, complex system problems contain many tiny factors known and unknown. The tiny disturbances caused by each tiny factor will be amplified by the complex structure of the system. The other parts have a variety of huge effects. For example, the butterfly effect, that is, a butterfly in Beijing that swayed its wings, will cause a storm in distant Brazil in the future; for example, the Matthew effect, the salary of your first year of graduation is higher than your classmates. Double, and your company has been developing stable, and twenty years later, the days when you and your classmates lived, there was a world of difference. There is a phenomenon that the poor are poorer and the rich are getting richer. These are all complex system issues.
Complex system problems can also be divided into two categories, one that conforms to a certain stable mode and the other that does not conform to any known stable mode.
For example, predicting the number of patients in the next flu season will guide pharmaceutical companies to produce the number of flu vaccines that meet market needs; for example, a bank predicts the repayment default rate for credit cards issued. These are all complex systems.Among the questions is the event that conforms to the stable mode. Although there are many minor factors involved, the possibility of random changes is large, and it is impossible to describe and model scientifically quantitatively like the trajectory of Halley’s comet and GPS positioning system. However, timely collection of relevant data can be achieved. And analysis, find a stable pattern of a certain time period and a certain area, some people, these stable patterns become a common sense thinking that can be easily used, you can use these common sense to make predictions. That is to say, such complex system problems that conform to a certain stable mode can also be solved by common sense thinking.
However, a large number of complex system problems do not conform to any known stable patterns, and such problems cannot be solved with common sense thinking.
For example, a film company wants to predict the future box office revenue of a movie to determine how much production and marketing expenses to invest in. A futures company wants to predict future soybean price trends to consider what amount of soybean futures contracts to sign. These are all complex system problems that cannot be solved with common sense thinking. Although all these issues have relevant historical data to refer to, but the history of the past has become a solidified event, there is no way to completely divert to the dynamic future results that have not yet occurred.
So, when thinking about such problems, you need to build your anti-conventional thinking, you need to do four things:
1. Take historical data, experience, lessons, and results as one of many possibilities;
2. Think of the future as a multitude of different probability distributions, and find the most important and most predictable options;
3. In the present, use history as a database to calculate the probability of future important options, and make scientific decisions based on probability;
4. Everything can’t be taken for granted. Use the Internet to provide you with convenient conditions. Use large-scale experiments and data to find objective laws.
The problem of understanding all simple systems through these 4 points can be solved by common sense thinking. Some complex system problems can be solved by common sense thinking; and most complex system problems need to use anti-common thinking. To solve.
So how do we solve problems with anti-common thinking? Summarize the three laws to share with you.
The first law of anti-common sense: life winners are probabilistic winners.
Most people are very interested in accurate predictions of the outcome of the event. For example, do you often hear people say that this weather forecast is really not allowed, saying that it is raining today, why not. In fact, the current weather forecasting technology has been able to achieve very accurate predictions within 48 hours. In those days when the weather forecast said that there was a 60% chance of rain, 60% of the days were actually raining. So, you must be clear, predict a certain result, and accurately predict a result.The probability is essentially two things that are completely different.
When most people make a decision or want to solve a problem, they actually want a certain result, such as: Will the next US president, Trump be re-elected; tomorrow will not rain. This pursuit of certain results is a common sense thinking. In other words, common sense thinking regards the development process of one thing as an “one” event chain.
But in fact, anti-common thinking tells you that there are many possibilities for the future of things. Each possibility is an event chain. Each of these event chains has its own different probability of occurrence. Therefore, what you should care about is: how likely is the probability of Trump’s re-election, and what are the probabilities of other candidates to win; how likely is the probability of rain tomorrow, and the probability of sunny, windy, and thunderstorms.
In other words, you should be concerned about the probability of different chain of events. Then, as some real-world situations occur during the development of the event, the future possibilities will gradually be merged into some event chains. You need to keep an eye on which chain of events remains, and what happens to the probability of occurrence. In the end, all the possibilities will be gathered into an event chain, which is the moment when this thing really produces results. All possibilities disappear and an irreversible result is produced.
In other words, you can’t predict results, and the results can only be generated by yourself. If you want success to be slightly biased toward you, you can’t rely on a perfect prediction of the outcome, you can only rely on the correct use of probability.
So the first rule of anti-common sense is that life winners are probabilistic winners.
The second law of anti-common sense: “searchers” outperforms “planners.”
If you are facing a problem, the most direct response is to draw your own conclusions and find the answer. In other words, you are used to being a planner. This is common sense thinking.
But, in fact, any problem, it is very likely that someone has found a good solution, and more than one person can solve it. Even the solution is varied and each has its own good.
Anti-common thinking is to remind you that not every problem requires you to be an implementer yourself, and to develop a solution to your problem. Most of the time, you should be a searcher. That is to say, you have to bet your attention and resources to find people who can provide a variety of solutions, betting on the solutions you find popular, which will produce more results.
This is the second law of anti-convention: “searchers” are better than “planners.”
The third law of anti-common sense: popular = a large number of ordinary influencers + accidental super influencers.
Most people are