Guotai Junan Media Team Z Generation New Consumer Series Report
Editor’s Note: This article is from WeChat public account “Guotai Junan Securities Research” (ID: gtjaresearch), author Guotai Junan Media team.
If one day, the financial news has added a quote to the “three big shoes”, I hope you will not be too surprised.
Data Source: StockX
0 threshold, 3 months, 37% to 600% profit margin… After 95 and after 00, new numbers are being used to define the shock that once was brought to public opinion.
In some media analysis, “soys shoes” is defined as a farce in which capital participates and stimulates young consumers to impulsively consume.
But is the fact really so simple?
“If you want to understand the various values of shoes in this young people – identity, personality tags … it is better to go Take a look at the middle school entrance. This is the only thing they are allowed to do different things.”
The Guotai Junan Media team tried to analyze the economic principles and trading psychology behind this subculture from the perspective of professional investment through the observation of the shoes and even the trend of the brand industry.
History tells us that it is always good to read young people early.
1,Say it out, you may not believe it,But the shoes are indeed traditional culture
In April 2009, a new “asset” was born in a place where the investment managers were overwhelmed – one of America’s most successful rappers, Kanye West
(Domestic fans nicknamed “Kan Ye”)
The three color schemes of the Nike Air Yeezy 1 that participated in the design were released from April to June, announcing the arrival of the tide shoe era.
This youngThe “core assets” of people were born.
Data source: aiobot
.com
In fact, as early as 1917, when Converse released the world’s first pair of basketball shoes, the Converse All Star, the sneaker culture began to emerge as a subculture.
So, the sneaker culture is still a traditional culture with a hundred years of history.
But the real push of the sneaker culture to the world is the Air Jordan series, or the credit of Michael Jordan Bendan.
In 1984, Nike, the small-scale manufacturer of sporting goods, defeated the giant Adidas and successfully signed Michael Jordan, who entered the NBA, and immediately launched a tailor-made basketball shoe series for Jordan. Jordan.
At the same time, Nike did not hesitate to pay a huge fine for Jordan to immediately wear the Air Jordan 1 with Nike LOGO in the NBA game, greatly improving the popularity of the shoes.
Data source: Sneakerblog.com
With Jordan’s two consecutive three-time performances in the NBA and the 1992 Barcelona Olympics “Dream Team”, Air Jordan has become the “God Shoes” in the hearts of fans. The fans around the world competed to buy and collect, and the sneaker culture was pushed to the world.
The capital driven by profit is very creative.
Now
,
In addition to basketball stars, major sports brands have expanded their personal signature shoe collections into the entertainment star field, and the shoes are no longer completely designed for combat.
The Nike Air Yeezy 1 that Kanye West participated in the design mentioned above is undoubtedly the most successful one. Its limited sales model and excellent marketing planning have caused the sneakers to be snapped up.
Other star star signature shoes including James and Kobe are also popular with fans., while Gucci, Balenciga
And some
The co-branded shoes in the big names are big red and purple, and the sneaker market is full of hundreds of flowers, and it has formed a rich collection. Among them, Balenciaga’s Speed Trainer, Triple S is a “phenomenon” success story.
2, shoes don’t fry or social money?
Data source: Sneakernews. Com
This is a three-month price change chart for Travis Scott Air Jordan 1 on StockX.
(May 15th to August 14th)
.
Among them, the lowest price in three months appeared on May 15, the price was 907 US dollars; the highest price appeared on August 9, the price was 1564 US dollars.
This means that if a consumer buys a pair of Travis Scott Air Jordan 1 (barb) on May 15th at a market price of $907, even though the price has been five times since the sale. The market price, but after three months of selling, after deducting the transaction fee, it can still earn 336.38 US dollars, the yield is over 37%; If the original price is bought, the yield will exceed 600%.
0 threshold, 3 months, 37% to 600% profit margin… Just as Moutai in the liquor industry has become the social currency of middle-aged people, Tide brand joint shoes are used as high-end consumer goods. With its
Culture Attributes
versus
Favorites
It is gradually becoming the social currency of Generation Z.
This explains why, despite the high prices, the classic replica can still trigger a consumer boom. This series of consumers not only value the performance of the sneakers in sports performance, but also pay more attention to the style design and symbolic expression when they wear casually on weekdays.
In addition to the characteristics of relatively stable, easy to store and other hard currency,The key reason why sneakers become social money is its scarcity and value-adding potential.
For the former, many high-end sneakers use a limited mode in the sale, which needs to be purchased by lottery or queuing.
For the latter, compared to the complex and long-term transmission mechanism of mature financial assets, the value of the shoes is simple and somewhat rude:
The limited supply has caused the price of sneakers to rise in a relatively “massive” demand, thus having the potential for value-added.
3,This young personTo be the same, more different
Shoes are just young people’s “business on the feet”,
In fact, with “symbolic expression” as the biggest
The trend of selling brands is beyond the imagination of young purchasing power.
The design of Chaopai apparel is strong, the “entitled” cultural connotation is rich, the heat is rising, and it is more and more welcomed by young consumers, and the market is developing rapidly.
*”Instagram 2017 Consumer Market Analysis Report”
Nearly 31% consumers use Tide brand as the primary or related element for sharing photos;
* Reuters data
The global trend market in 2017 reached 200 billion US dollars;
* Nielsen data
In 2018, the growth rate of the trend brand market reached 62%, the growth rate of non-tidal cards was 17%, and the growth rate of the tide brand market was 3.7 times, which is one of the most noteworthy market segments.
▼
Tide brand market heatThe scale of the transaction continues to rise
Data Source: CBNData
Younger groups are gradually becoming representatives of the new middle-income class, who always use their unique passion for consumption
Avant-garde character
Will develop and change in fashionThey seek space for self-expression and social identity. They are uncontested contestants and performers.
In addition to highlighting personality traits, another driver of trend consumption is to show a separation of identities, not only from other levels, but also from different groups within.
4,Who is paying?
We often say that “post-90s” and “after 00” are collectively referred to as “Z generations” in the United States. They are also the main consumers of the tide brand. As far as the domestic market is concerned, the post-95 purchasing power has gradually increased, driving the surge in consumer spending.
In the 2018 Amoy luxury market, the number of purchases after 95 increased by 445% compared to 2016. At the same time, the contribution of the amount in the luxury market after the 90s and 95s is also rapidly increasing. In 2018, the purchase amount accounted for nearly 40%, and the amount accounted for 16% compared with 2016.
▼ After 95, the fastest growth in luxury purchases (18 years vs 16 years)
Data source: CBNData, Guotai Junan Securities Research
Young consumers are keen to chase “new” and continue to pay attention to the sale of new color models, with strong impulse consumption.
Taking the most popular “Yeezy350 V2” shoes as an example, consumers continue to pursue it, which drives the hot sale of the product. Each time a new color is released, it will quickly ignite a wave of consumer buying.
Data Source: CBNData
With the help of capital, the sneaker e-commerce platform is rapidly emerging. They provide high-quality vertical-domain consumption platforms for young people, while attracting massive KOLs to help reduce decision-making costs. The Z-generation’s underestimated consumption power is thoroughly spurred in the shoe market.
Data Source: CountryTai Junan Securities Research
5. “Regulatory arbitrage” in the trend industry
In the financial industry, multinational financial companies conduct regulatory arbitrage through regional regulatory rules and differences, which is believed to contribute to the cross-regional spread of financial risks to a certain extent.
In the trend industry, the shoe-and-shoes e-commerce platform is making “regulation” a business.
Shoes are usually distributed online and offline. The online flagship store is mainly based on the brand’s official website. The main method is to draw lots. Consumers first make an appointment and then draw lots. Some hot styles are very popular. low.
The offline sale is mainly through brand-name stores. Consumers queue up to buy before the release time is opened. For example, when Supreme sells new models, fans are even queued overnight.
Data source: CBNData
Under this kind of marketing means, the supply relationship of the sneakers market is unbalanced, and the accompanying run becomes the norm. The winning sign is comparable to buying lottery tickets. Behind the secondary market of high-selling and frequent sneakers, it also breeds another sneaker consumption ecology – the fake shoes market.
Because genuine shoes are hard to find and the price is high, a large number of fake shoes and imitation shoes enter the market. The “genuine guarantee” has become the core consumer appeal of the tide shoe e-commerce platform, and the systematic appraisal link has been introduced. The vertical e-commerce platform provides genuine guarantee through rigorous authenticity identification and inspection services.
This has also led to an increase in the regulation of the shoe trading platform. By adding multiple identification inspection procedures and continuously optimizing the identification team, the probability of buying fakes is greatly reduced.
Data Source: CBNData
After the emergence of the shoe identification trading platform, the original loose shoe trade was aggregated, the trading of fake shoes was also suppressed, and the standardization and liquidity of the shoe market were greatly improved.
At present, the largest shoe trader in China is
Poison APP
The valuation has reached one billion US dollars.