Liu Song, vice president of Alibaba Group: Strong artificial intelligence will not happen within 20 years, which is worrying.
This article is the keynote speech of “China Enterprise 2020: Artificial Intelligence Drives Intelligent Innovation” at the Alibaba Main Forum of the World Artificial Intelligence Conference at the Alibaba Group’s main forum. The appendix at the end of the article is “China Enterprise 2020”. Series white papers.
Liu Song:
I have put the Alibaba Cloud Research Center on the value of artificial intelligence for enterprises, including the report on industry coverage. I have also seen this morning. I saw this morning’s main forum. Everyone has their own opinions. The professor gave us a global perspective to tell us how artificial intelligence develops. Before the official release, I would like to talk about our views on artificial intelligence.
This morning, when I saw the release, some big technology companies started to release such an artificial intelligence business school, which is very interesting. Last year we have not heard of an artificial intelligence business school, which means that artificial intelligence and enterprise and business and manufacturing and retail and financial industries are deeply integrated. The topic of discussion today is the major trend of artificial intelligence and industry integration. The subtitle is how entrepreneurs think, this is our topic.
In 2020, I remind everyone that we are only 125 days away from New Year’s Day in 2020. What does it mean? If we say that after the mobile Internet era 95, some of the 00s are digital motives, they have already started using smartphones when they first went to middle school, including the iPad. They are in life, including games, and this morning I also I am very sensible to realize that video games are at the forefront of artificial intelligence. Now when you want to play games, it will match you to opponents of similar level, and then dozens of people on the online game will play this game. It is unimaginable. This model will become the working mode of the enterprise in the future. The United States has a word “gamification”. Maybe we can’t imagine it today.
The people who returned to the second half of the day after 10,00 today, I believe they can be defined as intelligent aborigines. Just after 95 and 00, all their lives can be managed with a smartphone app. Today, this group of people born after 2005, they are born in a smart environment.Lived. I have an interesting experience myself. At the end of last year, I gave a request to my parents. All parents must go to class, called parent class. I may be familiar with artificial intelligence. I told a primary school elementary school student last year. One hour of artificial intelligence. I think that this group of students, the middle class, the elementary school, this child asked me about artificial intelligence. I asked my AI in my Alibaba question to level one level.
They asked me about employment, the sense of human beings, and whether we humans will die in the future. They may be the average 9-year-old children of this generation. The films they accept are guided by the understanding of intelligence more than ours. I am. We saw the assembly of artificial intelligence today and saw a lot of students and young people. I participated in the Zhibo Fair and the Artificial Intelligence Conference. The biggest beneficiaries in this exhibition area are those under the age of 15 who have been affected by the shock in the exhibition area for a lifetime. The people we meet at the venue affect at least a small part of the life, because many of your things are solidified.
Can you come back to the problem of the reverse, look at the technology we have today, and take the past things in the future. The father wants to learn from his son, and the mother wants to learn from her daughter. In the era of artificial intelligence, we need to respect our next generation, when they become intelligent life, and vice versa. We don’t worry about artificial intelligence replacing humans in 20 years, but it is very easy for our next generation to rely on artificial intelligence to surpass us. People sitting in this room today are possible.
The change of the times is the time point of 2020. It is time to go to the time of December 31, 2019. The artificial intelligence industry affects the way companies serve, affects the way they work for customers, and affects the way we manage cities. Every entrepreneur and government official must start thinking today. When five years later, in fact, after this technology comes, it will be five years. Five years later, when all of your newly recruited employees, the most capable young people in your company, and the most mainstream sales have started to be intelligent native residents, your own management vocabulary is not enough. Those people are easy to link quickly, and you are still a paternal city.
There are so many directions in the artificial intelligence application. There are many colleagues in front. Some experts talked about a lot of topics this morning. The impression is deep. In the whole morning, except for the two horses, they talk about Mars, about artificial intelligence. Can it exceed humanity? These are very worth thinking about. There are also education-related topics that have a dual meaning for an industry like education. On the one hand, we can use artificial intelligence to enhance our most difficult topic now, that is, how to educate our next generation.
Because these people are intelligent native residents, will they be replaced by artificial intelligence after 15 years? This is also a good topic, because people like me are not too worried about being artificially intelligent.Instead, I was retired at the time. I am more worried about how the younger generation grew up with smart life.
Possibility, when we talk about the combination of artificial intelligence and industry, we need to talk about consumption upgrades. There are more than one million people in 167 cities in China. It is very likely that the use of artificial intelligence in the fourth- and fifth-tier cities is like the use of mobile phones in the fourth- and fifth-tier cities. The strength of the downline and reversal is far greater than that of the first and second lines. Cities, even young people, the way they watch TV, including the use of vibrato, is much more frequent than in first- and second-tier cities. On the one hand, because they don’t have such heavy housing prices, on the other hand, they may be in the era of artificial intelligence. May spend more time.
Our population in China has a huge dividend of nearly 1.4 billion people. The current smartphones cover 860 million people and 460 million people. We have seen a population dividend of 820 million people, the world’s food, clothing, housing, and e-commerce. There are many colleagues in front of us, whether it is the product manager of our Tmall Elf and the IoT that our partners are talking about. One thing they say is that Increase.
What is the concept of the increase in things? We used to have two words, one called the population, and one called the animal. Everyone knows that it is livestock. In order to feed our 7 billion people all over the world, the total quality of pigs, horses, and sheep to be raised is three to five times that of human beings. Today, we serve some of us in the digital age, of course, we still have to eat pigs, horses, and sheep, but services. What we have become, they are the global intelligence, wearables, smart watches, smart mattresses that they just talked about.
In 2030, on average, each person will have a thousand pieces of corresponding intelligent hardware. After 11 years, this concept should be said to be more than 10 years later. This means that I give them a name. They didn’t call them smart hardware, they didn’t call them smartphones, I called them “objects.” The population side is the object. As a person, you have a smart phone, there are at most three, you have a thousand things to serve you, long-term connection is intelligent, and there is a personification service. The number of machines produced is a hundred times and thousands of times.
The speed at which you interact with your smartphone. One is to speak. Through the voice recognition of Tmall Elf, the speed of this speed is 300 words per minute, and you can hit the keyboard and brush on WeChat and friends circle every day. The speed of up to 200 words per minute, the speed of interaction between people and smart phones, we average every day with a smart phone, young people about 6 hours, each input frequency of one hundred words, how many words do you count? . You think of those cars that are driving autonomously, 4 T per day, the data generated by your home artificial intelligence, and the equipment you wear, the data generated by these watches, this amount is bigger than you. Because people become the biggest bottleneck in the entrance, and there is no limit to things, it is automatically generated.
AI, why should we combine artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things into one word? Have you ever thought about it?This problem is precisely because of the data generated by the Internet of Things, the data automatically generated by the machine, because of its low density, large output, fast, can only be processed by the machine, because humans can not solve this problem with the database, of course We have the design of the edge and the edge of the cloud, so in the future, the Internet of Things is an era of things that together constitute the smart age of this year. This is a huge environment today.
We still have 125 days to 2020. Ten years later, we have a thousand smart connections to serve you. A car like Tesla has four Ts. This number is two people. An order of magnitude, artificial intelligence data is collected in the underlying data to deal with this problem. Let’s talk a little bit about the future trends of artificial intelligence evolution, which may have already been mentioned.
First, from the jump of the two years of the algorithm, into the era of law, the algorithm is the new medium, the new decisive force.
Second, between several technologies, there is a cross relationship between the five key technologies. Based on the core intelligent processing, the computing power supports cloud computing. In addition to the general artificial intelligence, the algorithm also has our data. Two wings, one is the Internet connected by 4 billion people, the other is to add two zeros in the future. In 2020, there are 500 Internet users coming to the Internet of Things. Both things give data to the middle. This is The big meaning of the entire AIOT we talked about today.
The scenario of applying downwards, each person corresponds to 100 billion items of quality, the scene exceeds one trillion, and the algorithm’s own effect should be improved. It can generate relatively large value in the small data range, which is the trend that the algorithm is studying and evolving in the future.
The last point is that artificial intelligence is essentially a service that is converged to the cloud. It is also the basis of software definition. In the future, although IoT and various IOT household devices, a thick software layer is formed. This software layer is actually a service. For entrepreneurs, they only need to care about their business to be able to configure their needs, and the rest are solved by artificial intelligence services. This is the most important summary. This is what I started with PPT. All intelligence is service. This is its trend.
Specific to the value of each field, the five major trends just mentioned, we want to see many Chinese farmers begin to patrol the farmland they guard, including the coastline. Recently, there is a new word in the whole IT. I hope that it is an automated process-driven logic. We can also see that our generation will be able to enjoy the service robot in the future. Although the robots that talked in these two years are still in the initial stage, It should not be 5 to 8 years, a robot that can tell you clearly, a robot that can understand what you mean should be able to appear, and can be designed to be more user-friendly in terms of hardware.
Artificial intelligence and one more important is intelligent decision making, not to mention here.
We talk about the impact on the company, for the enterprise it faces the upcoming 2020, there are tenIn the year 2030 after the year, in 2020, 4 billion people, with an average of 50 hours of interaction and digital production, is a problem faced by every enterprise. The amount of externally generated data is more than four times that of the internal. To give an example, the typhoon came to Zhejiang last month. Zhejiang Province has to use nails to dispatch a million civil servants to affect almost 20 million people. Everyone knows the impact of this typhoon on you and you. The action to be taken. Behind the formation of a new digital enterprise, the external environment, including your connection method, including your middle office, today we do not talk about the middle platform, regardless of the data in the middle or the artificial intelligence in the middle.
We used to be more intelligent backstage, solving people’s property. Today, facing such a future intelligent foreign product, we need human-to-human collaboration, human-computer collaboration, and microseconds. The effect, which will have a huge impact, is what we see for the entire organization.
Artificial Intelligence There are two other places where we have to make a little statement. The white paper will mention that we basically talk about the trilogy of artificial intelligence, the development trend of artificial intelligence, industrial application, and ethics.
We talk a little bit about things related to ethics or soft science. Artificial intelligence is probably a waste. It is very wasteful to try to build artificial intelligence algorithms by building a cluster. Three or five years ago, including using servers now. The small proprietary cloud, now the public cloud becomes a basic display, whether Google or Ali is based on large public cloud platforms to do artificial intelligence, but there is no other way.
We have measured some obvious shortcomings in the promotion of artificial intelligence. Regarding data, the availability of data, the security of data, and the waste of data are also serious. Because it can’t be stored after data collection in many industries, it is automatically discarded. This is what we see. The algorithm is also wasted sometimes, not spending too much time here, and wasting talent.
There are not many people who know artificial intelligence. Now we have to use it in all walks of life. Today, the way we train people and the decoupling between our current research and industrial applications of artificial intelligence will create a huge waste. Unlike the big data era, the research personnel of artificial intelligence can’t see customers, that is, those industries. Those who understand the industry are not necessarily trained by the algorithm. The rhythm on both sides is very large, which in itself creates a rhythmic difference. On the one hand, there is a shortage of talents in the industry, and the other is that they do not know who to serve. This is a great waste.
The ethics of artificial intelligence, talk about artificial intelligence must talk about ethics, because artificial intelligence seems to be the most valuable marker that can replace human beings is the brain, human panic is worth understanding. We recalled that in the novel of “Three-body”, there was no way to send the brain to the sky. Of course, it lived again. The first place where artificial intelligence replaces human beings is also the topic of discussion between the two horses. Why humans are at all skillsThere is a huge discussion about artificial intelligence in the surgery. There are many problems behind it. Data-related problems, human beings may be replaced. I personally think that strong artificial intelligence will not happen within 20 years. This is Worrying people.
In a short period of time, there are data collection, data openness, and whether artificial intelligence will be misused, harming humans, and the topic of human intelligence interpretability and transparency. These topics are very interesting. The first time people in the scientific and technological circles were together with economics, sociology, ethics, law, and psychology. So there is no book to make artificial intelligence clear, because everyone is based on their own knowledge. I can’t understand each other, this is naturally caused by knowledge. For a long time, artificial intelligence is a profession. If you are interested in this, start learning this major now. This is a person who understands both algorithms and laws but also sociology. This person can become a future judge or a future lawyer.
About Liu Song:
Alibaba Group Vice President, mainly responsible for Alibaba’s strategic planning, public policy, industry, education and research, ecological construction of science and technology personnel training programs.
attached:
China Enterprise 2020: Artificial Intelligence Application Practices and Trends
White Paper on Customer Service Center Change and Development in Smart Age
