The development of the real estate market must take the word “stability” at the forefront. Local governments should implement policies according to the city, one city with one policy, to curb the real estate bubble and prevent big ups and downs. The new four-in-one linkage mechanism of people, housing, land and money is the core content of the long-term real estate mechanism, and it also points out the direction for future real estate market regulation.
“Golden Nine and Silver Ten” is the traditional peak season for real estate sales. After September and October each year, sales are coming to an end. Therefore, every year, real estate development companies have increased their launch efforts during this period and enriched their promotional methods in order to boost their performance and accelerate the collection of payments, so that the annual data can be better. Judging from the market situation in September this year and the long holiday of “October”, the lively scenes such as house looting and Japanese CDs that have appeared in the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” in the past are hard to find, and the overall housing market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment.
58 Anju Guest House Property Research Institute data shows that among the 63 cities it monitors, 55 of the 63 cities that it monitors, the new house transaction volume in September this year fell year-on-year, with an average decline of up to 47%. According to data from the China Index Research Institute, during the long holiday of this year’s “11th”, the transaction area of newly-built commercial residential buildings in its key monitored cities dropped by 33% compared with the same period last year. The declines were all over 40%. In some third- and fourth-tier cities, there are even few home buyers in the sales offices. Even the housing market in Beijing’s hotspot district school district, which was hot in the first half of the year, saw a significant decline in transaction volume and price slack.
From the above statistics and market conditions, the real estate market is generally getting colder, and some cities and regions where the high fever has not retreated in the past are declining. The reason is that intensive real estate control measures continue to exert force, control effects continue to appear, and the market gradually returns to rationality. The more important reason for the current market cooling is the tightening of bank loans under financial regulation, the shortage of mortgage quotas in some cities, and the lengthening of the loan cycle. Buyers need to queue up to obtain house loans from banks. In addition, the introduction of second-hand housing guidance prices in many places has also played a positive role in stabilizing the expectations of the second-hand housing market and preventing illegal funds from entering the market to speculate on housing prices.
The land market is also less enthusiastic. The “three red lines” of real estate companies and the management of real estate loan concentration are superimposed on financial control policies. Companies have reduced leverage and debt, and their operations have stabilized. At the same time, some real estate companies are relatively inadequate in funds, price-limiting and other regulatory measures to dilute profits, coupled with a wait-and-see attitude toward the market outlook, and other factors have affected the enthusiasm for land acquisition, so that the current land market has begun to cool down. In the ongoing new round of centralized land transfers, land “lost auctions” and suspension of transfers occur from time to time.
Currently, the real estate market is still very differentiated.The characteristics of “One City, One Policy” are more prominent. Some cities are still continuing to improve real estate regulation, introducing measures such as “patching” and “plugging loopholes”. For example, Dongguan recently introduced guidelines for second-hand housing prices. Up to now, more than ten cities have issued guidance prices for second-hand housing. Some cities have also introduced encouraging and supportive policies. For example, Harbin has promoted market stability in terms of alleviating the liquidity pressure of housing companies and promoting the release of housing demand, and introduced measures such as granting housing subsidies to relevant home buyers.
It is worth noting that policy fine-tuning should not be interpreted as loosening regulation. Whether it is to curb overheating or promote demand release, the goal is to stabilize the market. Generally speaking, real estate regulation should not and will not be relaxed, and its necessity has long been self-evident. The hard-won achievements of the current regulation and control should be further consolidated.
To promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, we should still adhere to the positioning of “housing to live without speculation” and not using real estate as a short-term means of stimulating the economy. At the same time, the situation varies greatly from place to place, and market development is changing rapidly. Real estate control measures and later fine-tuning are necessary. The development of the real estate market must take the word “stable” at the forefront. Local governments should implement policies according to the city, one city with one policy, to curb the real estate bubble and prevent big ups and downs.
Preventing and resolving financial risks in the real estate market always require attention. At present, some real estate companies have encountered operating difficulties and aroused concern. The real estate industry is large in size and has a long industrial chain. It is necessary to avoid the risk of individual real estate companies from spreading to other industries and be alert for chain reactions. In accordance with the requirements of the central bank, it is necessary to “maintain the healthy development of the real estate market and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers.” The most urgent task is to take measures to avoid the emergence of “unfinished buildings” due to the problem of the real estate company’s capital chain. Buyers can’t make their best effort to buy, but the delivery of the house is nowhere in sight. It is necessary for the relevant departments to pay close attention to the operating conditions and operating risks of real estate enterprises, provide early warning of risks in the real estate industry, strengthen guidance, and prevent problems before they occur.
The long-term stable and healthy development of the real estate market requires continuous improvement of basic systems and long-term mechanisms. The new four-in-one linkage mechanism of people, housing, land and money is the core content of the long-term real estate mechanism, and it also points out the direction for future real estate market regulation.