Times Finance Gallery/Photo courtesy Zhou Jingyu/Drawing
In the third quarter, Muyuan shares an estimated loss of 500 million to 1 billion yuan, Tianbang shares an estimated loss of 2.05 billion to 2.25 billion yuan, and New Hope has an estimated loss of 2.58 billion yuan. From RMB to 2.98 billion, Zhengbang Technology has an estimated loss of RMB 5.52 billion to RMB 6.52 billion……
Pig prices continue to bottom out, and the performance of listed pig breeding companies is greatly affected. The industry has entered a state of full loss, and it is still unclear when the turning point will be reached.
Pre-losses for many pig companies in the third quarter
On the evening of October 14, Muyuan (002714) announced that it expects a net loss in the third quarter 500 million to 1 billion yuan, a profit of 10.2 billion yuan in the same period last year; the first three quarters are expected to make a profit of 8.5 billion to 9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.12% to 59.5%.
Muyuan said that during the reporting period, the company’s slaughter volume of pigs increased significantly compared with the same period last year. However, due to the gradual recovery of domestic pig production capacity, the price of pigs in the first three quarters of 2021 was compared with the same period last year. The significant decline has led to a significant decline in the company’s operating performance in the first three quarters of 2021 compared to the same period last year.
Muyuan sold 26.106 million live pigs in the first three quarters of this year, a year-on-year increase of 119.73%. This sales volume ranked first among the nine listed pig companies. The sales price of commercial pigs has fallen all the way down, from 26.95 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 11.49 yuan/kg in September.
Tianbang shares (002124) announced that night, it is expected to lose 2.05 billion yuan to 2.25 billion yuan in the third quarter, with a profit of 1.289 billion yuan in the same period last year; it is expected to lose money in the first three quarters 2.7 billion to 2.9 billion yuan, with a profit of 2.824 billion yuan in the same period last year.
According to the sales briefing, Tianbang shares sold 2,809,600 commercial pigs in the first three quarters of this year, a year-on-year increase of 38.73%; the average sales price was RMB 20.28/kg, year-on-yearA reduction of 64%.
New Hope (000876) is expected to lose money in the third quarter. It is expected to lose 2.58 billion yuan to 2.98 billion yuan in the third quarter and 1.92 billion yuan in profit in the same period last year; The loss in the first three quarters was 5.995 billion yuan to 6.395 billion yuan, and a profit of 5.085 billion yuan in the same period last year.
New Hope stated that, compared with the same period last year, the sales price of live pigs during the reporting period dropped significantly, and the increase in the price of feed ingredients added to the increase in the cost of pig breeding, which led to the pig industry Loss is the main reason for the operating performance loss in the current period. In addition, the poultry industry also suffered losses due to the continued downturn in the market.
New Hope’s cumulative live pig sales in the first three quarters were 6,811,300, an increase of 57% year-on-year; the average sales price of commercial pigs in September this year was 12.70 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 61.68% .
In addition, Zhengbang Technology also announced that night that it expects a loss of 5.52 billion yuan to 6.52 billion yuan in the third quarter and a profit of 3.016 billion yuan in the same period last year; it is expected to lose money in the first three quarters. 6.95 billion yuan to 7.95 billion yuan, with a profit of 5.433 billion yuan in the same period last year.
When will the pig price turning point come?
This round of pig cycle is still in the low range, and pig prices continue to drop. According to pig Yitong data, last Sunday, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 10.85 yuan/kg, up 2.7% month-on-month and down 65.2% year-on-year. According to the China Animal Husbandry Information Network, last week the pig price was 10.78 yuan/kg, which not only fell to a new low this year, but also approached the lowest point in the past 10 years (10.01 yuan/kg in mid-May 2018).
The main contract 2201 for pig futures prices began to rise on September 24, but the recent rise has been corrected. At the same time, the stock prices of a number of listed pig companies began to rebound.
In addition, news of pork purchasing and storage boosted market confidence. On October 11, the Ministry of Commerce announced that in order to stabilize market expectations and maintain the smooth operation of the pork market, on October 10, the Ministry of Commerce, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance and other departments, purchased and stored 30,000 tons of central reserve pork, and arranged for storage. In 12 provinces.
Tianfeng Securities analysts pointed out that from the current live pig price, the price is continuing to explore downwards.The continued low level may cause some farms (households) to accelerate the elimination of breeding sows, thereby laying a certain theoretical foundation for the price reversal in the middle of next year.
GF Securities said that at the end of September, the pig price was close to the lowest point in history, and the industry entered a deep loss range. It is expected that the third quarter will be the quarter with the greatest pressure on the profitability of most aquaculture companies. After the fourth quarter, the loss of aquaculture companies is expected to converge.