The world’s largest, tomorrow’s yellow flowers.
Editor’s note: This article is from “Future Car Daily” (WeChat public ID: auto-time), author: Pan Lei.
Frankfurt Auto Show
Author | Pan Lei
Edit | Liang Chen
The Frankfurt Motor Show has never been so frustrated like this year.
As the world’s first auto show, the Frankfurt Motor Show held in Germany every September was the best choice for major automakers to showcase the next year’s heavyweight models. It is also the world’s largest traffic force in the automotive industry.
But this auto show has lost the glory of the past, showing signs of weakness – in addition to the German car companies also regard this as the home, continue to play the protagonist, other European and American Japanese and other mainstream car companies choose to absent.
Toyota, GM and other Japanese and American car companies, and even European car companies such as PSA (Peugeot Citroen) and FCA (Fiat Chrysler Group) are no longer holding.
The Frankfurt Motor Show is a “one-man show” for German car companies.
For the city of Frankfurt, this is a very frustrating auto show, not only the shyness of the major car companies, but also related to the market, technology and the small abacus of the car companies themselves.
The sales in Europe are bleak and dragged down the auto show
For major automakers, one of the reasons for the decline in the attractiveness of the Frankfurt Motor Show is the sluggishness of the European auto market.
Since 2018, the European auto market has begun to show signs of lower sales. According to data provided by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (AECA), the number of new car registrations in Europe in 2018 was 15.624 million, a slight decrease of 0.04% year-on-year.
In the first half of this year, the market downturn began to intensify.
According to the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the entire European market sold about 9.83 million new cars in the first half of this year, a year-on-year decline of 1.92%. From the perspective of regional markets, the sales volume of the Western European car market at the Frankfurt Motor Show was 8.936 million units, a decrease of 2.34%.
FactFrom August 2018 to April this year, the European auto market has experienced negative growth for eight consecutive months. After finally “turning positive” in May, it immediately re-entered the downtrend channel in June. The monthly sales volume was 1.754 million units, a year-on-year drop of 6.42%, indicating an acceleration of the trend.
To some extent, for the European auto market, the “small bull market”, which has seen steady growth in sales since 2013, has been technically aborted.
Under the nest, it is difficult to finish the eggs.
Under the sluggish taste of the entire European car market, some mainstream car companies have been very difficult to generously continue to arrange large budgets to participate in the glamorous auto show, because the cake has become smaller, which makes them feel bad.
For the major car companies, some “off-site factors” have also hindered their confidence in participating in the Frankfurt Motor Show – Europe has the world’s most stringent emission regulations and is constantly strengthening, the biggest fuse After the introduction of the new emission test standard (WLTP) in Europe in September 2018, the downward trend in the number of new car registrations has turned into a long trip to the wild horse.
In addition, the British “Brexit” and other events have also intensified the instability of the European market to a certain extent, which also hit the confidence of car companies.
So from the market point of view, the European car market represented by the Frankfurt Motor Show is gradually becoming more and more prominent for the major car companies. It is completely logical to stop participating in the show that is being used for money.
Frankfurt Auto Show
Encountering “technical” crisis
The market shrinkage encountered at the Frankfurt Motor Show is not all, and it is impossible to continue to lead the global automotive industry in terms of technology. It is also one of the reasons for the decline in the competitiveness of the auto show.
In the case of traditional giant car companies mastering the innovative voice of the automotive industry, Europe has been developing as a place of origin for more than a century, forming a strong technological innovation atmosphere, and of course a large number of new technologies, and Frankfurt. The auto show is undoubtedly the perfect platform to showcase these technologies.
But now, things have changed.
Under the technological transformation of the automotive industry represented by new energy and autonomous driving in the past 100 years, old Europe has been unable to lead this wave of waves that can change the direction of the global automotive industry.
In contrast,As early as 2009, China has become the world’s largest auto market and the world’s largest new energy auto market. In 2018, new energy vehicles sold more than 1.25 million vehicles, and they are also at the forefront of forward-looking technologies such as new energy vehicles and autonomous driving. The US market is similar to the Chinese market, as the world’s second largest market, and also automatic. In the highland of technological innovation such as driving, the emerging car companies represented by Tesla have led the storm of this technology subversive industry.
European car companies now have to rely on internal group heating or technical cooperation with American car companies and Internet predators from China to obtain batteries and autopilot technologies.
In the group, after Daimler and BMW jointly formed the autopilot alliance, the news that Audi also wanted to join the alliance was also released at the end of August. The aim was to spread the risk of R&D as much as possible. It also reduces R&D costs.
In addition, Volkswagen, as a representative of European car companies, was forced to pay a huge price in exchange for the cooperation with Ford in autonomous driving. In the investment of the autopilot company Argo AI and other related matters, Ford slammed a bamboo Bars, paid billions of dollars, in exchange for the qualification to share technology.
When the battery has become a core component, the Ningde era from China has quickly emerged as a component giant in recent years, and has almost reached supply cooperation with all major European car companies. In addition, Baidu, Tencent and other Internet giants have also won the opportunity to cooperate with European manufacturers to promote their Internet products and technologies.
In other words, China and the United States have jointly led this wave of technological change, and China is backed by the incomparable advantage of the world’s largest market. In this case, car companies are more willing to participate in China’s auto show, at least to sell cars, but also to showcase advanced technology.
This situation is extremely rare in the development of European car companies. These car companies rarely have the core technology artificial hand, but now the dilemma of this technological innovation is a cruel reality for them.
From the perspective of new technology demonstrations, the Frankfurt Motor Show is no longer capable of playing the role it played many years ago.
After the car company
In addition to the aforementioned market shrinkage and technological crisis, some car companies’ own “small abacus” is one of the reasons for their unwillingness to participate in Frankfurt.
For example, Toyota, although it is at 201The European market in 8 years has seen a slight increase, from 732,000 in 2017 to 760,000, but Toyota is focusing on the North American market (21.2 million in 2018) and has gradually paid attention to the Chinese market in recent years (2018 sales) The strategy of 1.475 million vehicles is very clear.
Toyota Motorsport Akio Toyoda has publicly expressed “China’s most important” views at least twice, because both the US market and the European market are mature markets, and only the Chinese market is an emerging market with huge sales potential.
So in the Toyota memo, the European market is very important, but after the priority is placed in the Chinese market and the US market, it is logical to cut off the budget of the Frankfurt Motor Show.
As for GM, there is no reason to “play” in Frankfurt. In 2018, GM’s sales in Europe were only 0.33 million, a drop of 99.5%.
Know that in 2017, GM sold more than 600,000 new cars in Europe, but the sale of Opel itself indicates that GM has long been interested in the European market.
Under the leadership of CEO Mary Bola, GM is driving a key strategic transformation. This huge plan includes closing up to seven factories at home and abroad by the end of 2018, and the number of layoffs reached 14,800. This is the latest manifestation of the transformation and upgrading of traditional car demand and overall cost cutting to focus on business and investment in electric vehicles.
In this case, the Frankfurt Motor Show is not on the schedule of the female CEO.
As for PSA and FCA, there is no reason to appear at the auto show. Although the European market is its main battlefield, PSA sold up to 2.5 million new cars last year, an increase of 32.5% year-on-year. However, PSA may not want to go to its own maximum in the case of German car companies occupying home profits. The opponents join. The FCA suffered a declining sales volume in Europe last year, with a drop of 2.3%. It is normal to be unwilling to pay for traffic.
As for the reasons for Nissan, Volvo, Suzuki, Mazda, Subaru and other car companies to disappear at the Frankfurt Motor Show, basically can not run the above reasons.
Weicheng Motor Chairman Wei Jianjun
Where is the world’s first auto show going?
Behind the fall of the Frankfurt Motor Show, the actual reflection behind the car lineThe transfer of the discourse power of the industry, or the reorganization of power.
In the past 100 years, German car companies have lost the leadership of this technological revolution after encountering market and technical difficulties.
The key point is that the technological advances of the automotive industry before, compared to the subversion of technology and product form by electrification and autonomous driving, are insignificant. This is a new challenge for German car companies, and it seems that they are too late.
In addition, as far as the Frankfurt Motor Show is concerned, if there is no support from the Chinese car companies such as Great Wall, Red Flag and Baiteng, it is estimated that the scene will be even more ugly.
From a philosophical point of view, this transfer of power is normal, and nothing is immutable. It is unrealistic or even impossible to maintain absolute domination in an industry forever.
The feng shui turns and now turns to the world’s largest auto market. An indisputable fact is that almost all car companies want to cut off the flashy auto show budget, but few car companies have the courage to cut down Beijing. The budget of the auto show or Shanghai Auto Show.
This is a change of the times, and it has nothing to do with Frankfurt, because the city has no other way than to accept a fate that has already been destined.
Thank you, Frankfurt.
[I am Pan Lei, the author of the Future Auto Daily, focusing on the automotive industry and forward-looking technology, and are always welcome to exchange and provide news clues. WeChat A10010A123, please add a note name, company, position. 】
