It is expected that the overall land market cooling situation will not change in the second half of the year. The annual land transaction area is down by 30% compared with last year.
According to the website of the National Bureau of Statistics on September 16, In January-August 2019, the national real estate development investment was 845.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, and the growth rate dropped by 0.1 percentage points from January to July. Among them, residential investment was 6.2187 billion yuan, an increase of 14.9%, and the growth rate dropped by 0.2 percentage points.
Although from the data level, there is no major change in the fundamentals of real estate development investment. However, under the pressure of real estate financing, the differentiation of investment cooling continues. The investment in Northeast China has cooled significantly. The growth rate of investment in January-August was 0.4 and 1.3 percentage points lower than that in January-July.
In terms of land data, the land acquisition area of real estate development enterprises in August 2019 was 122.36 million square meters, down 25.6% year-on-year, and the land transaction price was 637.4 billion yuan, down 22.0%. It is worth noting that the purchase area and the amount of the decline are both narrower than 3.8 and 5.6 percentage points from January to July.
However, the narrowing of the decline does not mean that the attitude of the landlord has changed. In August, some large-scale brand enterprises have already announced the suspension or suspension of the land. “ It is expected that the overall land market cooling situation will not change in the second half of the year. The annual land transaction area is down by 30% compared with last year.” Zhang Bo, chief analyst of 58 Anju Rooms Research Institute .
Compared to the first seven months, real estate sales in August were weak. Statistics Bureau data show that from January to August, the sales area of commercial housing was 101.849 million square meters, down 0.6% year-on-year, and the decline was 0.7 percentage points lower than that in January-July. It is noteworthy that the eastern and northeastern regions are still the focus of cooling. From January to August, the sales area of commercial housing in the eastern and northeastern regions decreased by 3.6% and 6.6% .
In Zhang Bo’s view, the lack of improvement is not the slowdown in sales by housing companies, nor is it that the overall market has experienced significant cooling, mainly due to two reasons. “One is the “sprint” of the housing enterprises in advance, the market push pace and promotion efforts from June to July are greater than last year, and the space for improvement in August has been limited; the second is urban differentiation, uneven sales, including Shenzhen Hot cities and regions such as Shanghai Lingang have been affected by the big policies, which has boosted the property market, but some third- and fourth-tier cities and even second-tier cities have cooled down.”