Enter the brain of writer and futurist Daniel Jeffries.
Editor’s note: This article is from the WeChat public account “New Witness” (ID: AI_era), edit Zhang Jia, Daming, Xiao Qin.
Artificial intelligence has fundamentally changed the world. It is not coming, but it is here. Hate it or love it, AI is everywhere. It is like a newly sprouted seed, but a forest grows from this seed.
In the short term, AI will bring us the brightest fantasy and the darkest nightmare. why?
Because AI is a general technology. It is flexible enough to do whatever we want. This means that AI will reflect its creators – our good and evil.
Although there are concerns that the Terminator and the machine will take over, artificial intelligence is not even close to perception. It does not have its own desires. It will not take over the world soon, although we will explore this possibility as we look ahead to the next 500 years.
We now have a narrow artificial intelligence. It is limited to a single task and it will definitely do what we want. It is under the control of humans. If it does something bad, we can only blame ourselves.
In the next five to fifteen years, we will face a future dominated by narrow artificial intelligence.
Artificial intelligence and how it is used will reflect and amplify our essence a thousand times, both on the bright side and on the dark side.
It will “live” in your camera, on your phone, in your computer, in your glasses, and in public and private places.
It will be our friends, colleagues and enemies.
As Francois Chollet said: “Artificial intelligence will be our interface with the world.”
In short, nothing is beyond the reach of artificial intelligence.
Welcome to the dawn of the age of wisdom.
Please come with me now, I will show you how this all started, and how it leads us into an era of intelligent explosion, which will make a huge transformation in the past, in contrast to the previous From agriculture to industrial revolution, industrial revolution to information age, it seems insignificant.
World after 5-15 years: Centaur Ma Jun appeared, China became the world’s artificial intelligence training center
The semi-human horse appears and works with humans
Artificial intelligence will be our colleague in the next few years and not a substitute for us. At that time, AI will work side by side with humans to make us better, smarter, and faster. These AI haveOne nickname: Centaurs.
Their names come from Gary Kasparov’s early chess game experiment, in which a combination of artificial intelligence and human teams defeated purely artificial intelligence and a human team without AI assistance. The name of the game comes from the fabulous beast of the Greek legend, half a horse and half, symbolizing how people and machines work together.
We tend to think of AI as C3P0, which is an imitation of human intelligence. In other words, it can’t do all the work for us.
In the factory, we will see more and more AIs responsible for security, monitoring equipment and predicting failures, and engineers are ready to end the wrong debate. This means fewer accidents and higher productivity.
We will also see the Centaur system helping us build urban infrastructure. Drones and satellites will monitor the spread of disease in crops and soar over urban streets to find potholes and fill them up. This knowledge will better inform public policy.
With knowledge, the public can ask for better roads and bridges because they actually know which ones are bad, and engineers will know which roads to lay down next.
The Centaur will be ubiquitous in the next five to fifteen years, spread slowly, and then spread quickly.
AI helps health care, and over-regulated medical systems are gradually open
The most promising area of artificial intelligence is the healthcare sector.
Detecting skin cancer by visual pattern recognition
In health care, the biggest obstacle to artificial intelligence is that almost every medical system in the world is too conservative and over-regulated. New equipment is difficult to get approved, and the barriers to entry are huge.
When artificial intelligence shows growing hope, we expect these walls to collapse.
The law will change, making it easier for AI-based medical devices to enter hospitals, access our phones, and augmented reality glasses.
This way, your watch and glasses will know that you are often snoring during the day, not just overwork, but sleep apnea.
From the sphygmomanometer to the camera, the equipment around the hospital will become smarter. The camera will detect if the elderly are stopping breathing or having a heart attack.
All our devices will start as preventiveNursing equipment.
Your watch will become your heart and health monitor more and more. In ten to fifteen years, it can even predict a heart attack before you eat eggs and bacon.
“Reminder: If you have a heart attack, please go to the emergency room immediately.”
That means you can get to the hospital in time and live longer.
New digital Darwinism begins, privacy and public interest need to be weighed
Of course, every light has a shadow.
Nothing shows this shadow more clearly than the AI arms race.
The next five to fifteen years will mark the beginning of a new digital Darwinism. At the military and economic levels, at the national level and at the enterprise level, the survival of the fittest is achieved.
Today’s narrow artificial intelligence relies on big data. The more data you can collect, the smarter your artificial intelligence is, and at least after a few petabytes of images, text, and video, it will reach the point of diminishing returns.
If your citizen does not have any privacy rights, the government can do whatever it wants, which makes it very easy to build large data sets to train artificial intelligence.
City Brain Dashboard
For the government, the moral impact is even more serious. Every country wants to deploy artificial intelligence in the city’s brain, but they need to draw a line between privacy and public interest.
The line is blurry.
The motto to the road to hell is “for greater benefit.”
Smart City has many benefits, such as:
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The fire is found to be faster than anyone, which means the fire truck gets there faster.
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Discovering violence and arresting violent criminals means fewer people die of terrible gunshot wounds or knife wounds behind them.
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Recovering stolen cars and wallets means cheaper insurance.
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Commanding traffic means reducing commuting time.
If AI can save us from the morning peak, it might be worth using the monitoring machine, because there is nothing more than two hours a day.