According to the data monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on March 24, the average price of pork in the national agricultural wholesale market was 18.4 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.3% over the previous day. Compared with last Friday (March 18) of 18.4 yuan/kg, the fourth’s 18.4 yuan/kg increased by 2.22%, and compared with 18.22 yuan/kg last Thursday (March 17), it increased by 0.99 %, showing a certain degree of rebound. 
Pork price tabulation news in the past month
The overall increase in the price of live pigs (external ternary yuan) is relatively larger. According to data from China Pig Network, on March 21, the national average price of live pigs (external three yuan) was 11.78 yuan/kg, on March 22 it was 11.84 yuan/kg, and on March 23, the national live pig (external three yuan) price was 11.78 yuan/kg. ) The average price was 12.06 yuan/kg, and the data on March 24 was 12.29 yuan/kg. On March 25, the average price of live pigs (outside three yuan) was 12.37 yuan/kg, which was the same as last Friday’s 11.98 yuan/kg In contrast, the increase was 3.26%.
On March 24 this week, the National Bureau of Statistics released the market price changes of important means of production in the circulation field in mid-March 2022. The price in mid-March was 11.9 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.4 yuan per kg compared to the previous period, a decrease of -3.3%. The data in mid-March basically reflected the price of live pigs last week.
According to Zhuochuang Information, from March 18th to March 24th, the price of domestic live pigs first fell and then rose, and self-propagation and piglet fattening were still at a loss stage. The average profit from self-propagation and self-support in the country is -326.50 yuan/head, an increase of 0.19 yuan/head compared with last week’s loss. The average profit of piglet fattening was -94.11 yuan/head, a decrease of 75.83 yuan/head from last week’s loss. The enthusiasm of the breeding side to supplement the pens has been improved as a whole, and the domestic piglet price has shown a slight upward trend. The average slaughtering price of ternary piglets with a weight of 7 kg is 273.53 yuan per head, a month-on-month increase of 1.06%. Big pigs are slowly digested. This week, the average weight of live pig transactions in the country fell month-on-month. The average transaction weight of live pigs in the country was 119.15 kg, a slight decrease of 0.13% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 6.64%.
Zhuo Chuang Information predicts that, in terms of supply, there will be more live pigs in the first ten days and the middle of the year, and the completion of the plan will be relatively short.Good, so the supply of live pigs has narrowed in the second half of the year. Some areas may complete the plan step by step, some areas have overfulfilled the slaughtering task, and the number of live pigs to slaughter next week may still be low. In terms of demand, the increase in terminal demand is relatively slow, and the traffic in many areas has been poor recently, the demand is poor, and the delivery of live pigs is not good.
On March 22 this week, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a department coordination meeting in Beijing to analyze the current situation of live pig production and study measures to stabilize live pig production. The meeting emphasized that multiple measures should be taken to stabilize live pig production and ensure a stable and orderly supply in the market. The meeting believed that the current production of live pigs is generally stable, the production capacity of reproductive sows remains at a reasonable level, and the supply of pork in the market is relatively loose. Affected by the relationship between supply and demand, the price of live pigs has entered a cyclical downward range. In addition, the prices of bulk feed raw materials have risen recently, and breeding has continued to lose money. Few farm households are facing difficulties in operation, and all relevant departments in various regions need to work together to help them tide over the difficulties. The meeting called for strengthening information monitoring and early warning of the entire pig industry chain, actively guiding financial institutions to increase credit policy support, stabilizing long-term support policies such as breeding land and environmental protection, and accurately implementing live pig production capacity regulation and frozen pork purchase and storage regulation. The normalized prevention and control of African swine fever will promote the stable and healthy development of live pig production.
Guosen Futures believes that from the current supply and demand deduction, the market volume in March-April is still large, and the demand side has recently repeated epidemics in various places, and catering consumption has been seriously affected The overall supply situation has determined that the recent purchase and storage are still difficult to effectively drive the price of pigs to rise sharply. However, from the perspective of the evolution of the overall pig cycle, the current pig cycle is statistically nearing its end, and the point of greatest supply pressure is expected to be realized in the next 1-2 months. In addition, the price of feed raw materials corn and soybean meal has risen, leading to higher breeding costs. , pig prices are expected to be not far from the final cyclical bottom.