At 24:00 on March 31, a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products will open. Institutions generally predict that the price of refined oil will face “seven consecutive rises”. 
In the early morning of March 30, Beijing time, international oil prices fell. New York light crude oil futures for May delivery fell $1.72 to settle at $104.24 a barrel; Brent crude oil futures for May ended down $2.25, or 2.00%, at $110.23 a barrel. The main contract of New York light crude oil futures fell below the $100/barrel mark during the session, with a drop of more than 6% at one point; Brent fell below $103/barrel during the session, a drop of more than 6%.
Zhongxin Jingwei noted that domestic refined oil prices have undergone five rounds of adjustment in 2022. Gasoline prices increased by a total of 1875 yuan / ton, diesel prices increased by a total of 1805 yuan / ton, showing a pattern of “five rises, zero falls and zero stranded”. If the increase on December 31, 2021 is added, the oil price will show a trend of “six consecutive rises”.
According to the statistics of Zhuochuang Information, as of the close on March 29, the reference crude oil change rate was 2.19%. It is expected that gasoline and diesel will increase by 115 yuan / ton, equivalent to The price of 92# gasoline is increased by 0.09 yuan, 95# gasoline is increased by 0.1 yuan, and 0# diesel is increased by 0.1 yuan. Taking a small private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L as an example, filling a tank of 92# gasoline will cost about 4.5 yuan more than before. It is worth noting that after the implementation of this price adjustment policy, the market will face the seventh consecutive rise since 24:00 on December 31, 2021.
According to the principle of “ten working days”, the next round of price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on April 15, 2022.
Looking forward to the market outlook, Zhuo Chuang Information analyst Xu Na said that recently, the volatility of international oil prices has increased, and the market is more sensitive to news, and the oil market may remain high. Characterized by high volatility, but with greater downward pressure. According to the current crude oil level calculation, the initial crude oil change rate in the next cycle may be at a low negative value, and the price adjustment is expected to start with a lower price adjustment.
Zhongyu Information analyst Sun Yanan believes that the current frequent geopolitical situation risks still dominate the international oil market, and the risk of supply cuts still supports oil prices, which may remain high in the short term. Judging from the current level of domestic epidemic control, gasoline and diesel demand will increase to a certain extent as the epidemic improves. On the other hand, the resumption of work in industries such as spring ploughing, engineering infrastructure, logistics and transportation and theThe tightening of supply caused by the intensive maintenance period of refineries from March to May will still support the upward trend in oil prices. Domestic refined oil products, especially diesel, still have some room for growth in the later period.