The rise in international oil prices continued, and the domestic retail price of refined oil rose again. The National Development and Reform Commission announced on March 31 that according to the recent changes in oil prices in the international market and the current refined oil price formation mechanism, since 24:00 on the 31st, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices (standard products) have both increased by 110 yuan per ton.
The price increase is equivalent to an increase of 0.09 yuan for 92# gasoline, 95# gasoline and 0# diesel. This round of price adjustment is the first “six consecutive increase” in 2022, and it is also the “seven consecutive increase” across the year.
After the implementation of this policy increase, consumer travel costs will continue to increase. According to the calculation of market organization Zhuochuang Information, taking a family car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L as an example, filling a tank of 92# gasoline will cost about 4.5 yuan more than before. Taking a small private car that runs 2,000 kilometers a month and consumes 8 liters of fuel per 100 kilometers as an example, the fuel cost of consumers will increase by about 7 yuan until the next price adjustment window opens (at 24:00 on April 15, 2022). In the logistics industry, taking the Steyr heavy-duty truck that runs 10,000 kilometers per month and consumes 38L of fuel per 100 kilometers as an example, the fuel cost of a single vehicle will increase by about 171 yuan before the next price adjustment window opens.
According to the relevant regulations of the “Petroleum Price Management Measures”, the maximum retail prices of domestic gasoline and diesel are adjusted every 10 working days according to the changes in crude oil prices in the international market.
Jinlianchuang Energy Analyst Wang Yanting said that during this round of pricing cycle, the failure of the Russia-Ukraine negotiation to achieve the expected results made the geopolitical tension continue to increase, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the sanctions in Europe and the United States The successive implementation of this has led to growing concerns about supply cuts. In addition, OPEC’s lack of willingness to increase production and the uncertain prospect of Iran’s nuclear negotiations have also deepened the market’s expectations of a shortage of supply, and the market’s bullish sentiment has boosted oil prices. Although the impact of the Asian epidemic has caused the market to start worrying about the demand side, and the Houthis proposed a truce, local geopolitical conflicts have eased, causing crude oil prices to plummet. However, during the pricing week, the overall increase in international crude oil prices was still relatively obvious. Boosted by this, the rate of change in crude oil changed from negative to positive, and the range continued to widen.
There are still differences among market institutions regarding the judgment of the subsequent oil price trend.
Longzhong Information crude oil analyst Li Yan said that based on the current international crude oil price level, the next round of refined oil price adjustment will show a downward trend. At present, due to the ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, signs of easing the situation, and the United States plans to release strategic reserves on a large scale, the international oil price may face a greater negative in the market outlook.Pressure, it is expected that the next round of refined oil price adjustment will be more likely.
Zhuochuang Information believes that under the intertwining of factors such as tense geopolitical relations or gradual easing, the increasing probability of reaching a nuclear deal with Iran and the UAE’s vague policy of increasing production, the next The cyclical international crude oil may maintain a high and volatile trend. According to the data model of Zhuochuang Information, the initial crude oil change rate in the new round of pricing cycle may start with a negative value. The initial price adjustment is expected to be lowered, or it may become the first downward adjustment since the “seven consecutive rises”. The price adjustment window is April 15 at 24:00 .
Jinlianchuang Energy said that in the short term, international crude oil prices will remain high and fluctuating, and the probability of a new round of retail price increases is still high.