The development goals for the year have not changed.
On March 29, Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council chaired an executive meeting of the State Council. The meeting pointed out that we should strengthen our confidence, insist on the development goals of the whole year and not relax, and put stable growth more prominently. The position of the government should be coordinated to stabilize growth, adjust the structure, and promote reforms. The policies to stabilize the economy will be released early and quickly, and no measures that are not conducive to stabilizing market expectations will be formulated, and plans to deal with greater uncertainties may be formulated.
In addition, on the evening of March 30, the regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People’s Bank of China for the first quarter of 2022 (the 96th in total) was recently held in Beijing.
Judging from the point of view released by securities companies, most securities companies believe that the “policy bottom” has been confirmed twice, and stable growth will be the definite direction.
Guosheng Securities Research Report pointed out that my country’s policy bottom has been established, and the economic bottom and market bottom are expected to be formed one after another, but it will take time, which is also the current market consensus. expected.
Sufficient policy reserves
The State Council executive meeting pointed out that the current international situation is more complex and severe, and the downward pressure on the domestic economy is increasing. When formulating this year’s macro policies, we have taken forward-looking considerations into the changes in the domestic and foreign environment.
Guosheng Securities believes that the executive meeting of the State Council pointed out for the first time that “when formulating this year’s macro policy, we have taken a forward-looking consideration of domestic and foreign environmental changes”. According to this, this year’s “two sessions” The determined policy direction and goals should have comprehensively considered factors such as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the epidemic.
In this regard, GF Securities understands that the policy emphasizes that although the internal and external economic environment faces some exogenous shocks, the policy reserves are sufficient.
In addition, the central bank’s regular economic adjustment continues the previous statement of “triple pressure”, while adding “escalation of geopolitical conflicts”, “frequency of domestic epidemics” increased.” In this regard, GF Securities understands that the latter two are additional shocks facing the current economy, and corresponding monetary policy needs to be strengthened based on the understanding at the end of last year to stabilize the macro economy and financial market.
Policy bottom reconfirmed
The executive meeting of the State Council pointed out that we should strengthen our confidence, insist on the development goals for the whole year and not relax, put stable growth in a more prominent position, coordinate stable growth, adjust the structure, and promote reforms, and policies to stabilize the economy will be released sooner rather than later. Without taking measures that are not conducive to stabilizing market expectations, formulate a plan to deal with greater uncertainty.
Guosheng Securities believes that the current epidemic has a significant impact on the economy and is expected to be a drag The GDP in the first quarter is about 1 percentage point, which means that after the economy “opens high” in January-February, there is a high probability of “decreasing” in March-April. The executive meeting of the State Council clearly pointed out that “strengthen confidence and insist that the development goals for the whole year will not relax.” , pointing out that despite the impact of the epidemic, the goal of about 5.5% is still to be achieved.
“The four major clues in the short-term macro perspective are China’s stable growth, regional epidemics, Russia and Ukraine. Conflict and global liquidity, the latter two essentially affect the risk-free interest rate and risk premium, and the former two are the main line and fundamentals of Chinese asset pricing. “Guangfa Securities Research Report pointed out that if the policy once again clearly confirms that the GDP target remains unchanged, it is necessary to raise policy expectations in the face of additional shocks.
Zhongyuan Securities Research Report further pointed out that the State Council executive The meeting called for “making a plan to deal with greater uncertainty”, the external uncertainty is the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the Fed’s interest rate hike, and the internal uncertainty is mainly epidemic prevention and control, real estate, capital markets, etc. The Financial Committee The meeting has established a policy bottom, and under the impact of major uncertain events, it is not ruled out that the market will challenge the policy bottom, thereby forming a market bottom.
In addition, based on “early departure and fast departure” , GF Securities Research Report pointed out that there should be a round of relatively certain counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment policies in the future.
Stable growth will be the main line of policy
In addition, “this State Council executive meeting also discussed the theme of expanding domestic demand and stabilizing employment. In the future, the issuance and use of special bonds, tax and fee reduction, and water conservancy infrastructure. This State Council executive meeting is closely focused on stabilizing growth, revealing an urgent intention to stabilize growth.” Minsheng Securities pointed out.
Guosheng Securities Research Report pointed out that the executive meeting of the State Council proposed that “restart construction of the follow-up project of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project and a number of water conservancy projects that have been included in the plan and have mature conditions; the annual water conservancy investment can be completed. About 800 billion yuan”, an increase of 5.6% over the scale of 757.6 billion yuan last year. Therefore, we can focus on water conservancy projects, rail transit, energy bases, data centers, urban renewal (pipe networks, etc.).
Looking ahead to the market outlook, Centaline Securities believes that the economy may be affected by the epidemic in the short term, but with the accelerated introduction and effectiveness of the stabilizing growth policy, the expected growth target can be achieved. Therefore, we can focus on stable growth sectors, including infrastructure, water conservancy, real estate, etc.
“The current price-earnings ratio of Shenwanquan A is 17 times, which is at the level of 26% of the market valuation since 2001. The medium and long-term investment value in the market is showing, which is relatively good. strategic layout period.” Zhongyuan Securities further stated.