【Editor’s note】

Population is an important factor affecting economic development, which in turn affects the flow of population and even the birth rate. As the population data for 2021 is announced in various places, the news combs the main population data of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in the past ten years, trying to weave a “ten-year map of China’s population” for readers’ reference.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, last year’s national birth rate was the lowest since 1949, while the natural population growth rate dropped to 1 for the first time since 1961. ‰; according to published data, the natural population growth rate of at least 9 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities will be negative in 2021.

“The impact of the birth and death of the population on the population change is getting smaller and smaller, and the migration flow of the population will have an increasing impact on the population change of different regions and the whole country. The more prominent.” Ren Yuan, a professor at the Population Research Institute of Fudan University, said in an interview with reporters.

Ren Yuan pointed out to reporters that, in the final analysis, the factors that determine population flow are mainly due to differences in economic development and employment opportunities in different regions. The most fundamental factor in migration flow. He reminded that now we need a more comprehensive population policy, and shift the focus of population policy to the direction of population age structure, population migration flow and population quality.

News: In recent years, some provinces have experienced large fluctuations in the resident population. For example, before 2010, the resident population in Anhui had declined. In the past 10 years, the number of people has risen by about 1.4 million. How do you see the influencing factors behind population fluctuations? For another example, the resident population of Hubei Province will increase by 547,000 in 2021, but the resident population of Hubei at the end of 2020 has decreased by 1.517 million compared with the end of 2019. What might be the reason for this fluctuation?

Ren Yuan: The change of the resident population in different regions is determined by the birth, death and migration of the population in each region. Births and deaths of the current population have less impact on the total population, and population changes are mainly affected by migration flows. However, the trend of population change in different regions is diverse, and the factors affecting population change are also different.

The decline of the resident population in Anhui before 2010 and Anhui’s long-term net population outflowdistrict related. The growth of Anhui’s resident population in the last ten years is actually the result of the combined effect of the economic growth in the central part of the country resulting in the reduction of population outflow and the growth of population return.

The resident population of Hubei Province will decrease in 2020 and rebound again in 2021. I think it is obviously affected by the epidemic. After the outbreak of the epidemic in Wuhan and other parts of Hubei in 2020, the number of people migrating to Hubei has dropped significantly; after the epidemic has eased in 2021, there will be compensatory population movements, so the population of Hubei will increase in 2021 relative to 2020. This may be partly the reason. The factors influencing the population changes in these provinces are complex, and it is very meaningful to observe and analyze them carefully.

News: Zhejiang has a net increase of 720,000 permanent residents last year (2021), surpassing Guangdong and becoming the province with the largest net increase in the country. However, the natural population growth rate of Zhejiang last year was smaller than that of Guangdong, and from 2011 to 2021, Zhejiang The decline in the birth rate is also greater than that in Guangdong. How can we comprehensively view this area where the net increase in the resident population is prominent, but the birth rate and natural population growth rate are not prominent?

Ren Yuan: The resident population of Zhejiang Province has grown rapidly, which is closely related to the economic development of Zhejiang, especially the rapid development of the Hangzhou metropolitan area, which has brought a large number of people Inflow is related, and Hangzhou is also a relatively active city in my country’s population policy. Therefore, the growth of the permanent population brought about by the economic growth of Hangzhou and its surrounding major cities reflects the relatively fast development of Hangzhou in recent years.

News: Last year, major provinces such as Henan and Hunan experienced the first negative growth in permanent population in nearly 10 years. What might be the reasons behind it?

Ren Yuan: It may be affected by the continued decline in births, or it may be the result of the continued trend of population transfer from the central region to the eastern region. The birth population in Henan Province first increased and then decreased in the last ten years, while in Hunan it remained stable and then decreased. Therefore, assuming that the population migration situation in Henan and Hunan has not changed significantly, and the increment of natural population growth is gradually decreasing, it is understandable that the resident population begins to show negative growth. Of course, in 2021, it is possible that the migration of the two provinces will increase, resulting in a decline in the resident population. For example, it is possible that the floods in Henan in 2021 will bring about an increase in the number of people going out for employment, so the permanent population will decline. All of these factors may exist and require more detailed data on births, deaths and immigration to assess them.


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News: There has been a relatively obvious decline in the permanent population of the three northeastern provinces in the past ten years. How do we view this continuous reduction of the permanent population? Never see, is there a possibility of reversal?

Ren Yuan: The resident population in the Northeast has continued to decline in the past ten years, which is related to the long-term net outflow of the Northeast. Fundamentally, it is related to the weak economic growth in the Northeast region. If there are no special factors that make the Northeast region’s economy re-invigorate, then in the foreseeable period, the Northeast region will maintain the trend of population reduction due to the lack of obvious economic recovery.

In a word, the change of the resident population will be affected by birth and death, but the most important factor affecting the population change in different regions is population migration. The social and economic development of different regions in my country shows different characteristics, and also shows different characteristics in terms of population migration, which makes the changes of resident population in different regions show different characteristics.

News: In the past 10 years, the birth rate in Shandong Province has first increased and then decreased rapidly. What may be the reasons for this? What is the reason for the relatively high birth rate in Guizhou, Qinghai, Gansu and other provinces?

Ren Yuan: Regarding the birth rate of an area, the birth rate is the ratio of the number of births per year in the area to the average population in the area. Changes in the birth rate, then, are affected both by the number of births and by the average population of the region. The birth rate in Shandong has first increased and then decreased in the past ten years, which is related to the birth population in Shandong and is also affected by the permanent population to a certain extent. The birth rate in Guizhou, Qinghai, Gansu and other provinces has remained at a high level, which may be due to the relatively low level of local economic development and the large population of ethnic minorities, so the population fertility level is relatively high. The total resident population will be less than without the outflow, so the calculated birth rate will be relatively high. In short, which factor is more important to the changes in the birth rate needs to be measured in detail.

News: The national natural population growth rate in 2021 will be lower than 1‰, and the natural population growth rate of many provinces also turned negative for the first time last year. Do you think the current situation is cause for concern?

Ren Yuan: Considering that during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, the natural population growth rate of the entire country will tend to zero, and then a sustained population will be achieved.Negative growth, therefore, it is normal for the natural population growth rate of different provinces to turn negative one after another. In fact, many provinces have experienced negative natural population growth a long time ago. For example, Shanghai experienced negative natural population growth in the 1990s. I think the natural population growth rate of each province will gradually turn negative, which may be an inevitable phenomenon.

It should be noted that the natural population growth in different provinces is gradually turning negative, but this does not mean that the resident population in different provinces and regions will continue to experience negative growth. Although my country’s total population will experience a long-term negative growth, there will certainly be many areas that will maintain the growth or stability of the total resident population. For example, the resident population in Shanghai should not experience negative growth. A relatively developed province such as Jiangsu is likely to maintain a positive growth in the resident population despite the negative overall population growth in the country.

Therefore, the future resident population changes in different provinces are still diverse. There are some provinces and municipalities directly under the Central Government that will bring about an increase in the permanent resident population in the process of economic growth, and there will also be some provinces where not only the natural population growth will experience negative growth, but the permanent resident population may also experience negative growth. This actually reflects the results of the difference and diversity of our country’s economic development.

my country’s population pattern is undergoing tremendous changes. The population changes in different regions are diverse. What we need is not to worry, but to pay attention. Population changes require that the economic development mode of countries and regions be adjusted and adapted to them, and different regions should carry out corresponding development and implement corresponding management according to the characteristics of population changes.

News: What are the main factors that affect population flow, and is there any difference between short-term and long-term? Do you have any suggestions for China’s population policy through population flow trends?

Ren Yuan: The factors affecting population flow are abundant, but in the final analysis, it is the result of comparing different factors between inflow and outflow areas. Population migration flows, including the flow of labor and employment, and the relocation of family members, as well as the relocation of immigrants due to large-scale construction, including ecological immigration, disaster immigration and other different types, as well as the growing international population Immigration and international emigration. Therefore, population mobility contains very rich processes, and the factors that influence these processes are different.

In the final analysis, the factors that determine population flow are mainly due to the differences in economic development and employment opportunities in different regions, which are the most fundamental reasons for population migration.White. Of course, there are different impacts on short-term and long-term population flows. For example, sudden and catastrophic events such as the epidemic will affect the total amount and structure of population migration flows in Hubei, including the whole of China. The long-term population flow is still determined by a region. determined by economic and social development.

In the long run, as long as my country can maintain sustained economic growth, it will further maintain the trend of high population mobility. my country’s population policy needs to pay more attention to the population policy of migration and mobility. Population births and deaths have less and less impact on population changes, and the impact of population migration on population changes in different regions and the entire country will become more and more prominent.

Therefore, in terms of population policy, the research on population migration and mobility policy should be strengthened. For a long time, our population policy has often paid attention to the narrower population policy, that is, the population birth policy. Now we need a more comprehensive population policy and shift the focus of population policy research to the direction of population age structure, population migration flow and population quality. This also means that we should pay more attention to the research on population aging, the research on population migration and mobility, and the research and policy implementation on improving population quality and population health.