After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Western countries led by the United States launched comprehensive sanctions against Russia in various fields such as finance, trade, and science and technology. The step-by-step pressing of the United States and Europe was met with strong Russian countermeasures, which triggered the voice and actions of “de-dollarization” and touched the “heart disease” of the United States.

According to foreign media reports, the Biden administration of the United States has been “threading the needle” frequently around the world recently, and senior officials of the US State Department, Treasury Department and other departments have been back and forth in Europe, India, the Middle East and other places Shuttle, trying to coordinate the positions of various countries to further put pressure on Russia. Especially in energy, the United States urged European allies to punish Russia firmly and unanimously, pressured India to buy less or even no Russian energy, and at the same time wooed and urged Middle Eastern countries to expand production to make up for the energy gap caused by sanctions against Russia. In order to boost the confidence of allies and curb domestic inflation, the United States also launched the largest release of oil reserves in history. On March 31, the United States announced that it will release 1 million barrels of oil per day from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the next six months, with a cumulative release of 180 million barrels to cope with the current supply shortage and high oil prices.

The effect of releasing oil reserves remains to be seen, and some experts warn that sanctions will bring serious side effects to the United States. International Monetary Fund (IMF) First Deputy Managing Director Gopinath said a few days ago that Western financial sanctions against Russia may weaken the dominance of the US dollar and lead to more “fragmentation” of the global financial system. Gopinath said he had seen some countries renegotiating the currency in which trade should be settled.

Gopinath’s warning is not a catch-all. On March 31, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree stipulating that “unfriendly countries” deemed by Russia to purchase Russian gas must open a ruble account in a Russian bank to pay in rubles. The new regulations will take effect on April 1. Russian State Duma President Vyacheslav Volodin warned on March 30 that Russian exports such as grain, fertilizers and timber could soon be priced in rubles. Indian media also recently released news that India and Russia are discussing a rupee-ruble settlement mechanism. According to this mechanism, the two sides can deposit rupees and rubles owed to each other in local banks and exchange them in neutral accounts, so that India-Russia trade can continue. From this point of view, US Treasury Secretary Yellen’s support for the dollar some time ago was mostly a strong reaction to being touched by a “heart disease”.

Over the years, the United States has overdrafted the credit of the U.S. dollar as a major international currency, especially the risk of the U.S. dollar cyclically causing global market volatility, which has already made more and more countries face the U.S. dollar. chronic illness and seek solutions. It is no accident that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has produced a chain reaction and triggered the voices and actions of “de-dollarization”. The role and status of the US dollar in the current global monetary system should be examined with a calm and objective attitude.

First of all, “de-dollarization” is accompanied by the “weaponization” of the dollar. “De-dollarization” is caused by the US taking advantage of the US dollar’s dominant position to impose financial sanctions over the years, and the US dollar reserves accumulated by various countries are at any time. It may be frozen or taken away. Russia’s recent experience may further strengthen countries’ perception of reducing their dependence on the dollar. The more the dollar is used as a weapon, the faster the dollar will be abandoned. This is precisely the most The irony.

Second, the U.S. dollar still has a dominant role in global markets. The U.S. dollar is used in global trade settlements, central bank foreign exchange reserves, global debt pricing, and global financial flows. Although the status of the US dollar in the global monetary system has continued to decline in recent years, it is also difficult to quickly replace the US dollar’s reserve status.

In addition, the diversification or acceleration of the international monetary system. The abuse of the status of the dollar by the United States has already planted the seeds of distrust in the hearts of various countries, and the willingness of countries to accelerate the establishment of an alternative global financial payment system has further increased. As some analysts pointed out, As the U.S. dollar continues to dominate global markets, its dominance is likely to be more fragile than it appears, and “the contours of the diversification of the international monetary system are emerging.”