After a record increase in January and a weaker-than-expected February, markets are paying particular attention to the upcoming March financial data.
Many institutions believe that the impact of a new round of the epidemic and residents’ willingness to buy houses may drag down the scale of new credit compared with the same period last year.
Bank of Communications Financial Research Center believes that the high-frequency construction data of the corporate sector has recovered to a high level, but at the same time, it has been negatively impacted by a new round of epidemics, and the demand side of corporate credit may be There is a slight improvement; the property market transactions in the residential sector are still at a low level, and the demand for residential credit has not recovered. On the whole, it is estimated that the new RMB loans in March will be about 2.6 trillion yuan. It fell back to around 11.1%.
CICC also estimates that new RMB loans in March were about 2.6 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the 2.7 trillion yuan in the same period last year. The agency pointed out that physical financing needs are sluggish, and credit expansion remains difficult. In the context of stable growth, policies continued to promote credit issuance, but the demand for physical financing remained sluggish, especially in March, the epidemic greatly dragged down economic activities, and commercial housing sales slowed down significantly, limiting the growth of mortgage loans, and the slowdown in construction activities. Corresponding loan demand is a drag. According to the central bank’s questionnaire, the loan demand index in the first quarter decreased by 5.2 percentage points compared with the same period last year, and the manufacturing loan demand index also slowed down compared with the same period last year. The current real financing demand is still sluggish.
However, there are also institutions that have confidence in credit issuance.
Zheshang Securities estimates that the new increase in RMB credit in March is 3.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 370 billion yuan over last year’s 2.73 trillion yuan, and the corresponding growth rate is the same as the previous value. 11.4%. The agency believes that March is a traditional big month at the end of the quarter. At the end of the first quarter, the bank’s credit impulse is strong, and the central bank’s current credit policy environment is superimposed. The economic fundamentals are in the process of repairing, and the negative disturbance of the epidemic can be effectively hedged.
In terms of social financing, Zhongtai Securities expects that, in terms of other items than credit, the downward pressure on off-balance sheet financing will ease, stock financing will not fluctuate much, and corporate bond financing will 250 billion yuan, and government debt financing exceeded 600 billion yuan. It is estimated that 3.5 trillion yuan of new social financing will be added in March, and the revised growth rate of social financing stock is about 10.2%, which is the same as the previous value.
The more optimistic Everbright Securities predicts that the scale of new social financing in March may exceed 4 trillion yuan, an increase of more than 600 billion yuan year-on-year, and the growth rate of the balance is 10.4% year-on-year. %, compared to Februaryup 0.2 percentage points.
The agency pointed out that from the structural point of view: (1) In recent years, non-bank loans have experienced negative growth in March, with an average scale of around -150 billion. Near the end of March this year, the central bank’s OMO will further increase the volume, which will help ease the pressure on funds at the end of the quarter. It is estimated that the new non-bank loans in March will be around -100 billion, that is, the new RMB loans on the social financing basis will be at least 3.1 trillion. (2) It is estimated that the net financing of government bonds is 600 billion yuan, and the net financing of corporate bonds is 300 billion yuan. (3) Non-standard financing continued to decline, and entrusted + trust loans are expected to increase by -160 billion. (4) The amount of acceptances in March was 2.66 trillion yuan, an increase of about 360 billion yuan year-on-year. Considering that the bank did not pass bill impulses significantly near the end of March, the consumption of bills will not be too large. It is expected that undiscounted bills will be new in March. The scale of increase is around -150 billion.
The year-on-year growth rate of M1 and M2 at the end of March may continue to decline.
Industry Research believes that from the perspective of M1, due to the impact of the epidemic, the transaction of commercial housing in March fell to the level of the same period in 2020, which may lead to a year-on-year decline in M1. The agency predicts that M1 It increased by 4.4% year-on-year, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; from the perspective of M2, due to the possibility of a decline in the year-on-year growth rate of loans, the liquidity of government bond issuance, and the high base in the same period last year, M2 in March may fall to about 9.0% year-on-year. .