Regional property policies have limited impact on the regional market, and the probability of overheating in the property market in the second half of the year remains small.
On September 17, the Bureau of Statistics released the price changes of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in August 2019. The data showed that the price of commercial housing in the city continued to maintain a stable trend in August 70.
In terms of sales data, from January to August, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide fell by 0.6% year-on-year, with a decrease of 0.7 percentage points. In a single month, the sales area of commercial housing in the country increased by 0.5% in August, up by 4.7% year-on-year. The growth in sales was mainly from the western and northeastern regions.
The sales price of new commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities rose by 0.3% from the previous month, with Guangzhou and Shenzhen rising by 0.2%, which was 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month. At the same time, the price of second-hand housing also declined. For example, Shenzhen fell 0.2% year-on-year, while Shanghai and Guangzhou were flat.
The sales prices of new commercial residential and second-hand residential in 31 second-tier cities remained slightly higher than the previous month, with the growth rate falling by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the year-on-year growth rate was 0.8 and 1.2 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. The performances of different cities are quite different. The prices of commercial housing in Fuzhou, Jinan, Guiyang and Lanzhou have decreased in different degrees in August, while those in Wuhan, Hohhot and Changchun still maintain a certain increase, while the urban differentiation of second-hand houses More obvious, such as Hangzhou, Chengdu and other cities with strict price limits, second-hand housing also showed a certain decline.
The overall cooling rate of the third- and fourth-tier cities is greater than that of the first- and second-tier cities. From the statistics of 35 third-tier cities in August, the sales price of new commercial residential buildings increased by 0.7% from the previous month, the same as last month, but up 9.0% year-on-year. It was significantly down by 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. In addition to the popularity of the second-hand housing market in the five major urban agglomerations, the cooling in other regions has been clearly reflected.
The Central Political Bureau meeting held on July 30 first proposed “not using real estate as a means of stimulating the economy in the short term.” Since then, the central bank has further explored solutions to the problems of real estate occupying credit resources, consumer loans, bank wealth management and other funds entering the real estate market. Kong Peng, chief statistician of the Urban Statistics Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, pointed out that “the central government once again stressed that insisting that the house is used for housing, not for the purpose of speculation, and that the real estate long-term management mechanism is required. In August, the real estate market continued to be stable.”
But under some big policy benefits, the hot spot of the property market will continue to emerge. 58 Bo, the chief analyst of the Housing Research Institute, said: “For example, due to the impact of the new district policy of Lingang, Shanghai Pudong Lingang New City is the top of the popular block in the region, affected by this 58 Anju Shanghai customer calls The chain increased by 49.8%, the increase was high, ranking first. The second place of call growth was Shenzhen, with a growth rate of 64.8%, which was higher than the national growth rate of 31.7%. The launch of Shenzhen’s first demonstration zone policy was short-term.Increased market sentiment. “But regional property policies have limited impact on the regional market, and the probability of overheating in the second half of the year is still small.
In addition, with the arrival of “Golden September and Silver 10”, housing companies generally carry out preferential housing purchases to attract some demand, so sales may improve. However, in the case of tight policies and weak expectations, the new housing market will continue to be stable in the second half of the year.