On the evening of June 8, the National Development Research Institute of Peking University held the 61st China economic observation report meeting. At the meeting, huangyiping, vice president of the National Development Institute of Peking University and director of the digital Finance Research Center, answered the question raised by the reporter of the news (www.thepaper.cn) on how to view the import pressure brought by the high global inflation on China< Br>
huangyiping said that the current external inflation pressure is very high, especially after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the global inflation has further increased. For us, there is already pressure in this regard. In April this year, the CPI has increased a lot compared with previous months, reaching 2.1%, indicating that China’s inflation is also on the rise< Br>
on the other hand, over the past year, China’s producer price index has been high, and the prices of inputs have been very high, but the prices of consumer goods have been relatively weak. This pattern may continue for some time. In terms of the supply and demand of consumer goods, the supply is relatively stable and the demand is very weak< Strong> from the perspective of supply and demand, the pressure is indeed rising, but it is not particularly great however, this situation will still exert great pressure on the economic recovery, especially for the small and medium-sized enterprises in the middle and lower reaches of the manufacturing industry. Their inputs are becoming more and more expensive, but the prices of raw products are not rising, resulting in a significant squeeze on the profit space of enterprises, which is not conducive to their economic recovery< Br>
Huang Yiping said that inflation needs attention, but it is not the most noteworthy issue at present: “ our biggest concern now is that the profit space of small, medium and micro enterprises has been squeezed, and the pressure of debt service is rising substantially. ”
talking about the analysis and suggestions on the current macroeconomic situation, Huang Yiping believes that, there is still room for China’s macro policies to further increase stimulus. Some direct rescue policies for enterprises and residents can be considered
Huang Yiping said that since 2022, there have been some new influencing factors, including the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Fed’s interest rate hike and the epidemic. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused some short-term impacts on the global financial market, as well as medium – and long-term impacts on the bulk commodity market and agricultural product market. The prices of bulk commodities and agricultural products have begun to rise, which may lead to the further rise of inflation in various countries and the weakening of economic activities< Br>
the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates since March this year, and the pace of subsequent interest rate increases may further accelerate. The Fed’s interest rate hike may exert certain pressure on the financial market and real economy of many developing countries. When the Fed tightens monetary policy, the liquidity of the international financial market will decrease, which may lead to capital outflow, currency depreciation and asset price decline in many countries, including China. This is a challenge for many countries. In particular, China now needs relatively loose monetary policy to support economic stability. Objectively, the Fed’s interest rate hike has brought certain restrictions to China’s policy space< Br>
talking about how to deal with the changes of these internal and external factors, huangyiping proposed that the epidemic situation should be controlled as soon as possible to minimize the impact on economic activities. Secondly, there is room for macro policy to further increase stimulus. The recent policies have sent the signal of “stable growth”, but the market confidence still seems to be insufficient. we can consider adopting a strong policy or project, whether fiscal or monetary policy, which may be helpful to boost the market confidence
he said that some structural policies have begun to be adjusted. The core is to balance the long-term and short-term policy effects and ensure a smooth transition in the short term. For example, the policy positioning related to the platform economy has shifted to daily supervision and support for innovation, but if there are some more specific measures to support the development of the platform economy, it will play a vital role in boosting the confidence of the industry. In addition, some direct rescue policies for enterprises and residents can be considered, which may play a great role in stabilizing the economic situation and supporting future economic recovery