Housing enterprises are lonely pathfinders.
Editor’s note: This article is from China Real Estate, author Tao Ting.
In the face of economic downturn, population situation, “small child”, “main room not to speculate”, and the factors such as increased competition among housing enterprises, how to seek other profit growth points has become the “work” of housing enterprises in recent years. Keep the road.”
Although some housing enterprises manage it as a “yangguan road” or a single-wood bridge, they still adhere to the traditional real estate development, “a road to black.” However, more housing companies or transformations do not change, or find ways to subdivide areas, or transformation does not change, or transformation and change, the trend of the battle is in full swing.
As far as the current transition model is concerned, in addition to the successful transformation of Sun Hung Kai in the early years, there are few successful cases in the transformation of existing housing companies. Vanke Yuliang also said frankly, “If it is easy, it is not called transformational development, because it is difficult to call transformational development, and it is easy to succeed.”
It can be said that the transformation is a sunny road for the housing enterprises, and it is also a wooden bridge. “Transformation is successful, and it needs to be timely and profitable,” said Zhang Boru, chief analyst of 58 Anju Room Production Research Institute.
走阳关道 over the wooden bridge
In the bustle of the bustle, the transformation of housing enterprises is to go through the sunshine road and also to cross the wooden bridge.
The movement of Country Garden turned a little bit. On September 25th, a recruitment revelation from Country Garden made the real estate circle boil. The news that “the recruitment of tens of thousands of robot experts in five years and the recruitment of people in major universities” has come to the fore, and the reality of Country Garden’s turning into the robot field. In addition to the field of robotics, Country Garden also decided to invest in the research and development of the third generation of hybrid rice in June this year, and to build a train that revitalizes the rural areas.
Wanke, which is in the same echelon with Country Garden, once again revealed its determination to find the second growth pole at the Southern Regional Media Exchange on September 24. Yu Liang said that in the case of slow growth, graft a new growth curve or find a second growth curve. Looking for the second growth curve of Vanke, the diversified business involves logistics, leasing, property, long-term rental, pension and other related fields.
This shows that the battle for diversity has once again escalated. In recent years, diversified development has not only been regarded as a large-scale housing enterprise by Vanke and Country Garden, but also the only way for other housing companies to seek new growth points.
The head of a listed real estate company told China Net Real Estate that the scale growth is close to the bottleneck, the profit level is difficult to maintain, the company’s market value cannot be improved, or the real estate prospects are not optimistic, or can’t do it.The real estate enterprises will seek new growth points, diversified development or completely withdraw from the original industry.
The slowdown in real estate sales growth has become an indisputable fact. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first eight months of this year, the national real estate development investment was 84.489 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%. Although it is still growing, the 10.5% growth rate is already the lowest growth rate this year. Under the influence of the current regulation and the tightening of financing, this growth rate has dropped by 0.1 percentage points from January to July, and has been decreasing for four consecutive months.
From a microscopic point of view, the top three “Baiwanheng”, in addition to Vanke, Country Garden’s equity sales for the first eight months of this year was 371.35 billion yuan, down slightly from last year’s 378.84 billion yuan. The contracted sales amount of Evergrande for the first eight months was approximately 370.07 billion yuan, a slight decline year-on-year.
The market value that is difficult for real estate companies to upgrade is more than the market value of Haitianwei. On September 23, at the Southern Regional Media Exchange Conference held by Vanke, the market value of Haitian Weiye exceeded Vanke, and netizens joked that “selling houses but selling soy sauce” said that Yu Liang said that he was “convinced”.
In fact, behind the “convincing”, like Vanke and Country Garden, most real estate companies are not sitting still. In recent years, no matter whether it is a large-scale housing enterprise or a small or medium-sized housing enterprise, under the circumstance of the big situation, they may not change their transformation, or find a way to subdivide the domain, or the transformation does not change, or the transformation and turn, and take advantage of the trend. The battle is in full swing.
If Evergrande invests 100 billion into the technology circle; Longhu proposes a strategy of transforming “good city operators”; Langshi vigorously leverages and transforms light assets; Panhai goes to real estate, turns big financial; Sunshine 100 focuses on non-residential industry , the search for roads in the field of subdivision; good home buyers from the real estate divestiture, into the agricultural and assembly industries, and so on, and so on.
Behind the action of housing enterprises, it can be said that the roads are the same. “Whether it is long-term rental apartments or shared spaces, urban renewal or old village renovation, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery or financial investment, these diversified industries are limited in scale, low in profit, or long in cycle. The risk is huge, and some businesses even have no profit model,” said the person in charge of the listed real estate company.
Tough to turn, painful transition
The road to transformation is destined to be a thorny, housing company is a lonely pathfinder.
Feng Lun once transformed the real estate enterprise in public, describing it as “the fat man turned and slowly transitioned.” From the reality, Guo Yi, chief analyst of Heshuo, believes that the current state of housing transformation is in the stage of shouting. Because, after the transformation of housing enterprises in the past two years, the new market space layout performance and profit rate are far less than real estate development.
Longhu’s Guanyu is still in the forefront of long-rent rentals, but it has yet to achieve profitability. Longhu’s management said at this year’s interim results meeting that it is expected to achieve a small profit next year; and Vanke’s new business is constantly testing. In the wrongUnder the convergence focus, there is still no industry that has the same prospects for real estate making money; Oceanwide Holdings’s road to real estate in recent years is also quite difficult, and its U-turn’s current financial performance is not stable.
The big house enterprises still have clear resource platforms and systematic organization tools, which can rely on the main business and resources, and more small and medium-sized housing enterprises are still crossing the single-wood bridge, behind the lonely road search, or one way to the “black.” For example, in the field of path-finding, and insisting that “transformation and innovation is the main theme of future development”, the first half of this year only completed 25% of the 15 billion yuan performance target set at the beginning of the year. The future of Sunshine 100 will not only reduce debt, but how to make new business profitable in the absence of real estate.
Huaye Capital, which is now self-help, announced that the company has gradually withdrawn from the real estate business a few days ago. The follow-up may be carried out in a light asset manner. After the debt restructuring in the future, Huaye Capital will become a company. A company with a medical business as its main business.
This is not the first time that Huaye Capital has announced its transformation. As early as five years ago, Huaye Capital turned to the medical and mining sectors. Today, five years later, Huaye Capital has become a point of selling mineral assets to pay off debts. In addition to encountering the radish scam, Xu Hong, chairman of Huaye Capital, believes that the problem of Huaye Capital is that the transformation is too fast.
There is a glimpse of the leopard in the tube. The transformation of housing enterprises not only faces objective factors such as long cycle and huge risks. The person in charge of the listed real estate enterprises also admitted that many real estate owners have a short-term outbreak mentality, and professional managers still have the mentality of “working emperors”, and there is no way to sink their hearts. Earn hard money. What’s more, some housing companies are not even able to see the decoration industry, which is large in scale, has good profits, and is closely related to real estate development.
Under the background of economic downturn, housing and housing speculation, accelerated competition among real estate enterprises, and limited real estate growth, “although some industries are indeed blue oceans, the previous experience and advantages of real estate enterprises no longer exist in new fields. It is necessary to re-lay out and open up a new world, which requires a long period of time.” Guo Yi agrees with Feng Lun’s “slow transition.”
But the contradiction is that although the transition period of the enterprise transformation is long, it may not guarantee success, but the transformation is the choice that the housing enterprises have to make. In the big environment, “If we do not seek new paths through transformation, the future development of housing enterprises may face greater risks”, Zhang Bo believes that the sustainable development of head housing enterprises needs to stabilize the existing scale of real estate development. On the other hand, to achieve “high quality” development, on the other hand, to get out of the “second track” and to tap the second growth curve suitable for their own development.
For non-leading real estate enterprises, “in the case of rapid concentration of industry concentration, the difficulty of obtaining land and financing will become more and more difficult. The transformation to professional segments and non-real estate fields is its survival. And the inevitable move of development,” Bai Wenxi, vice chairman of the China Enterprise Capital Alliance, told China Net Real Estate.
Good time and not easy
Overview of the history of housing transformation, the success of the transformation is not without. The most classic is the Xinhongji of the mainland housing enterprises as a benchmark for transformation. Although it seems that this company has little news today, according to public information, Sun Hung Kai’s self-sustaining assets amounted to 600 billion yuan, and the overall rental income exceeded 15-20 billion yuan per year. Referring to the top three “Heng Bi Wan”, their net assets are about RMB 2,000-300 billion.
China Net Real Estate found that as early as the 1960s, Sun Hung Kai was still a standard fast-turning sales company; in the 1970s, it tried to diversify; in the 1980s, it began to hold and lease, and operated; in the 1990s, sales and holdings were realized. Some 5:5. Why does Sun Hung Kai be able to achieve a substantial net asset size, and rely on more than 10 billion in cash per year to achieve a virtuous cycle of the company?
“The scenery you see now is the result of Sun Hung Kai’s 30-year strategic correctness + strategic adherence.” While maintaining a fast turnover, Sun Hung Kai is also doing a self-sustaining property operation. Add another important reason is that the 30-year property market is relatively stable, there has not been any major changes, and the net assets of Sun Hung Kai have been impressive,” said Bai Wenxi.
It can be seen that the transformation of housing enterprises is affected by three factors: “time, location, and people”. Zhang Bo pointed out that “Tianshi” means whether the entering industry itself is in a rising period and whether the policy is favorable; “land profit” is whether the entering industry has an advantage in the local area; “Human and” refers to whether the enterprise has resource advantages and congenital Whether the gene matches the direction of the transition.
The person in charge of a real estate enterprise told China Net Real Estate that it should not easily give up the leading industry of real estate development. In fact, Yu Liang also admitted in public that he could not find an industry that was more profitable than real estate. If we expand our horizons to the entire national economy, although there are anxiety and pressure on the micro level of real estate, it can be said that it is difficult, but it is undeniable that “the profit level of the real estate industry has always been at the upstream level of various industries”, Guo Yi said. .
The ideal transformation path of the above-mentioned housing enterprise leaders is: do not give up the real estate development leading industry, seek breakthroughs in the upstream and downstream related industries of the real estate industry, where the control is relatively loose, the future prospect is relatively good, and the market scale is relatively Larger industries that can take advantage of real estate development are the first to make their mark. For example, land first-level development, urban road construction, architectural planning and design, architectural decoration and decoration, marketing services, and property management services.
But he also admitted that to seek new growth points and diversified development, first of all, it is necessary to see the strategic prospects and establish a profit model. It is impossible to continue the diversification that cannot see the general trend and cannot make money. If you have a future, you can make a profit.
In contrast, the micro-transformation adjustment is smaller, and enterprises are more likely to achieve transformation. The big transformation is more challenging for the strategic management and resource integration of enterprises because of the greater scope, direction and scope of the transformation. “Either way of transformation, enough to understand the transformationThe field, direction, acquisition and accumulation of sufficient resources are prerequisites for the success of the transformation,” said Bai Wenxi.
Thousands of thousands of people, hundreds of people. One thing is undeniable. “If you stick to the traditional real estate development base camp, you still have to go all the way to the black, not looking for other opportunities. It’s really that the industry’s profits are getting lower and lower, more and more difficult, and even when there are big risks, then these companies It will inevitably sink in with it,” an industry analyst said frankly.
Whether it is the Yangguan Road or the Dumu Bridge, there are only one reason for the success of the turn-around housing enterprises. There are thousands of reasons for failure.