In the past ten years, the annual growth rate of China’s outlets has reached 38.2%, and with the rapid expansion, it has become more intense competition. So, which cities are currently involved in the stock battle?
Editor’s note: This article is from WeChat public account “Winner Cloud Think Tank” (ID:sydcxy2014)< /a>, author Song Li.
As China’s commercial real estate enters the era of stocks, shopping malls are under pressure, while Outlets’ performance has maintained a strong double-digit growth: in 2015, the top 20 in the country The total sales of the project was 33.742 billion yuan. By 2018, the figure increased to 51.064 billion yuan, with an average annual compound growth rate of 12%.
Behind the data, it reflects the increasingly eager domestic consumers’ double desire for high quality and cost performance. From the perspective of the industry, Ole has not only greatly eased the pressure of brand dealers to go to inventory, but also formed differentiated competition with department stores and shopping malls. It has been favored by more and more developers and has become an important branch of commercial real estate.
In order to find out the status quo and development direction of China’s Ole industry, Winner Yunzhiku will continue to release “China Olympics” with a sample of outlets with a commercial area of 10,000 m2 (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan). “Teles Innovation Development” series of studies.
This issue is “China Outlet Distribution Thermal Drawings“, from the perspective of Ole’s stock, increment, industry concentration, distribution characteristics, etc. In order to provide a decision-making reference for the subsequent development and site selection of Ole.
In the past ten years, Ole’s format has grown continuously
According to the big data monitoring of the winners, as of the end of September 2019, there were 176 Outlets with a commercial area of ≥10,000 m2, and the total amount of the project exceeded 15.24 million m2. Among them, the newly opened Ole in 2019 is seven.
▌China Ole Ten Years: The average annual growth rate of stocks is 38.2%, and the development fluctuates greatly
According to the big data monitoring of the winners, from 2008 to 2018, the domestic outlets industry continued to grow in size, the total number of projects increased from 12 to 169, and the total volume of the project increased from 650,000 m2 to 14.44 million m2.
From 2008 to 2018, the annual average growth rate of the total number of Ole nationwide was 31.6%, and the average annual growth rate of the overall volume was 38.2%.
In terms of growth rate, the growth rate of Ole’s scale fluctuated greatly during the decade, and the fluctuations of quantity and area were basically the same: from 2008 to 2011, due to the low consumer awareness, the market has not yet been cultivated. The absolute value of the stock is low, making the increase easy to fluctuate.
From 2012 to 2017, affected by the trend of domestic consumption upgrades and the overall arrogance of the commercial real estate industry, the scale of the national Ole is also growing at an annual rate of between 30% and 45%. However, in 2018, due to the pressure on the macro environment, developers tend to be cautious, and the growth rate has dropped to less than 16%.
▌Oulai China Ten Years: An average of 16 new ones per year, with an annual increase of 90.8% in new volume
According to the big data monitoring of the winners, from 2008 to 2018, the average number of newly opened Ole in China is 16 each year, and the average annual increase in Ole’s volume is 1.387 million m2.
In terms of Ole’s incremental growth, the growth of the Ole project was only a single digit before 2012, and every year thereafter it was double-digit growth. In particular, in 2016, it reached a new high in 2017, adding 29 and 34 respectively, and the newly added area also exceeded 2.6 million m2 and 3.3 million m2.
However, in 2018, Ole’s new number was 23, and the new volume was only 1.849 million m2, a sharp drop of 32% and 44% in 2017.
From 2008 to 2018, the annual growth rate of the number of new Ole countries in the country was 77.8%, and the annual growth rate of the newly added Olean volume was 90.8%.
2008 to 2012, byThe market has not yet matured, the number of developers entering the market is still small, and the number and volume growth rate of newly opened businesses fluctuate greatly; from 2012 to 2017, the growth rate of new quantity and volume is between 10% and 80%; 2018 As analyzed in the above year, the new quantity and volume have dropped sharply, and the growth rate is negative.
▌ China Ole Ten Years: After 2016, the proportion of new additions to total stocks continues to decline, and industry competition is intensifying
Since 2016, the proportion of Ole’s new additions to total stocks has been declining, and it has fallen to 12.8% in 2018. This shows that after several years of rapid expansion, China’s Ole’s market saturation has increased significantly, and industry competition has intensified.
▌Industry concentration: TOP10 Ole operator’s total project volume accounts for 46.2% of the national total, and the overall trend is rising steadily
According to the big data monitoring of the winners, as of the end of September 2019, the total number of the top 10 Ole operator projects in the country accounted for 38% of the total number of the country, and the proportion of the project volume to the national total amount reached 46.2%. .
From 2008 to 2018, the proportion of TOP10 Ole operators to the total number of countries increased from 33.3% to 36.7%, and the volume ratio decreased slightly from the initial 48.1% to 44.6%. Among them, from 2008 to 2010, the proportion of TOP10 operators decreased, but it increased slowly and fluctuated between 2011 and 2018. Overall, the industry concentration showed a “steady rise” trend.
From the experience of Europe and the United States, in the future, with the further increase in market saturation, competition in the same city will become more intense. The industry concentration of domestic Ole will be greatly improved through mergers and acquisitions.
The chain of Ole accounted for half of the country; the steady growth of the single Ole
With the expansion of the industry, the number and size of the chain Ole has steadily increased, accounting for half of the country. According to the big data monitoring of the winners, as of September 2019, there were 93 chain Ole in the country, with a volume of 8.02 million m2, accounting for 53% and 56% respectively.
From 2008 to 2018, the number of Ole projects in the chain was between 50% and 59%, and the volume ratio fell from 75% in 2008 to 55% in 2018. Body Ole continues to enter the market, diluting the original proportion.
In the past ten years, the proportion of single Ole has increased from 42% to 47%, and the proportion of volume has increased from 25% to 44%. With the deepening of consumers’ understanding of Ole, the market environment is more perfect, more developers are optimistic and invest in Ole industry, which promotes the steady growth of the single Ole project.
Second, the provincial capitals have already laid out Ole, and the future channels will sink further
▌ Regional distribution: East China Express is the first, southwest and Central China are accelerating into the market
In the regional distribution, the Ole industry has an uneven situation. According to the big data monitoring of the winners, as of the end of September 2019, the highest stock of Ole in the country is East China.There are 62 Ole, with a volume of more than 5.3 million m2, accounting for 35.2%; followed by North China, 28 Ole, with a volume of 2.1 million m2, accounting for 13.8%; Oasis in Southwest China Third, a total of 20, the volume accounted for 11.4%.
Northeast China and Central China are “medium students”: the number of projects is 19, accounting for 10.7% and 12.2% respectively. The northwest and south China regions are “post-advanced students”, and the number of projects is 14, and the volume accounts for less than 9%.
Observing the regional distribution of newly added Ole in the past decade, it can be seen that East China has always been the main area of the newly opened Ole, and its position is stable; North China has increased more between 2015 and 2017, and it has decreased year-on-year in 2018; The overall development of the Northeast and Southwest regions is relatively lagging behind. In the past three years, the number of newly opened Ole in the Southwest and Central China has increased significantly, and it belongs to the emerging development area of Ola.
▌ City line-level distribution of heat: second-tier cities are the main battlefield, channel sinking acceleration
According to the big data monitoring of the winners, there are 27 Ole in the first-tier cities, with a volume of more than 1.8 million m2, accounting for about 12%; a total of 97 second-tier cities with a volume of 8.93 million m2, accounting for 58.6%. There are 52 cities in the third line and below, with a volume of 4.5 million m2, accounting for 29.5%.
