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When others fall into a herd effect, if you can have first-principles thinking, have the ability to think independently, find a non-consensus but the right direction, and then use your rational courage to stick to your own direction. In fact, this is called innovation.

So, what tools are there for the herd effect? I share three.

01.Decoupling,Let my thoughts not equal to “I”

This is the first and most important step in breaking the ideological imprisonment.

There is such a passage in The Gift of the Puritans –

“When enough people believe in an idea that it becomes common sense, it controls us. It is not that we have ideas, but that thoughts take possession of us.”

What does it mean?

That is to say, when the groups around you all trust a certain idea, this time is not that you have thoughts, but that the thoughts have you. At this time, you must be careful.

Why?

Because we will equate my thoughts with my identity, and then equate our thoughts, our common beliefs, with the unique signs of our existence.

When I equate my thoughts with me, this is enough to show that you have been kidnapped.

What should I do? ——

Unhook, let my thoughts not equal me.

When you come up with an idea and someone questions your thoughts, you look at your emotional reaction for a moment. If you feel that others are challenging your ideas, and that is equal to challenging your dignity, you are imprisoned by thought. If someone else challenges your thoughts, you are very happy, what you said makes sense, let’s take a look at whether this idea is true.

When you can discuss this idea very rationally, it means that you can free yourself from the imprisonment of your thoughts.

This is a major sign of decoupling.

02.Anti-consensus, Conversely, always think in reverse

The herd effect puts everyone in the black hole of group beliefs, but I have repeatedly said that this is not the innovator in turn.Opportunity?

How to pick out a rule of ours when others fall into a herd effect? Anti-consensus.

After an event or an environment, most people go to the right, and when you find that the real road is on the left, what should you do? Go to the left.

For example, Dario said in the Principles that if you want to succeed in investing, you must think independently, because consensus is usually wrong.

Okay, let’s look back. From the perspective of revenue, even if the consensus is correct, then the benefits generated by the consensus are always limited, right? You share this harvest with all the people, are you not a denominator? How much can you get? That is not an opportunity at all.

Even if you are correct, you won’t make much profit.

So, Peter Til’s book from 0 to 1 has the biggest influence on me. He said that when I interview candidates, I will ask this question. On any important issue, what do you think is different from most people?

He said that a good answer usually has this sentence. Most people believe in X, and I find that the fact is the opposite of X.

He said that if you can’t find such a secret, your investment, your business is impossible to get a return.

This sentence is awesome.

If you don’t have such a secret, how can you get a return? What’s interesting is that this secret requires you to think independently, use the principle of first principles, and dig away the illusion of the surface, you can dig it out.

So, what is your opinion on the important issue different from most people?

If you don’t have this secret, you want to achieve success in your career, and happiness in life. Why? You are the denominator, and you want to enjoy the glory of the molecule. Why? There must be an independent thinking spirit to find such a secret.

The following picture is a model of Xu Songtao’s painting by Chaos University – ordinate, correct, wrong, abscissa, non-consensus and consensus.

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The correct consensus is actually common sense, but you have to be careful. Once a belief becomes common sense, it will drag you into a black hole of faith.

What is common sense? You can’t even have the possibility of doubting it. That thing is common sense. At this time, it has you, you are kidnapped by it, and even more terrible is that you use it to define your identity, people challenge it, you will think it is against you, even against your ethnic group.

The belief black hole is hard to jump out.

What should I do? trial. You can try it out in all directions outside this black hole.

The vast majority of people, if you think this is the right direction, you can try to go wrong in several directions from him. In the process of trial and error, you will find a non-consensus but the right thing to come out, this is called anti-consensus, the fourth quadrant.

If you don’t have the ability to think first, you can’t find it. What is left? Courage, believe in the courage of reason.

Look at the investment guru Buffett, everyone knows his famous saying, right? When others are afraid, I am greedy. When others are greedy, I am afraid. Is it anti-consensus?

Another investment guru, Soros, is known as the trend master. He uses people’s consensus to make money. This is called reflexive theory.

What is the theory of reflexivity? In the formation of the group consensus, this stock is rising, and higher than its original value, I entered, before the consensus is about to burst, I played. Because once the consensus is broken, the price will fall sharply and fall below its original value.

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To put this paragraph together, this is the chart of the famous Soros investment. You will see that the price of the stock and the real value are not always the same, which is irrational in the stock. The more people think that the stock is worth, the more valuable it is; the more people flee, the more it falls.

Look at Jobs again, born in the 1960s. In that era, there was a movement called the Hippie Movement, which questioned everything, especially authority, the courage to try, the road to wander, the fearlessness, and the creation of a better world. This actually reflects the spirit of critical thinking.

So, you can recall that after Steve Jobs returned to Apple, he had not had much money, but he actually spent $100 million and made a film – Think Different.

Why did he want to make this film? He must first liberate the inner cognitive boundaries of Apple employees and encourage everyone’s critical spirit. What can you possibly have? Creativity.

So, without Critical Thinking, there is no Creative Thinking.

You go to see Munger’s “Poor Charity Collection”. Once, he did a thought experiment. He said that I need to develop five basic principles to run a company. There must be one in the five basic principles. —

“Reversely think, the other way around, always think about it.”

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