The subsidy retreat caused an early overdraft of market demand, but the negative growth of three consecutive months has never happened. The overdraft effect alone does not seem to be sufficient. So, what are the reasons behind the three consecutive falls?
Editor’s note: This article is from WeChat public account “First electric car network”(ID:d1evwx), author Deng Ya.
Three consecutive drops are the latest transcripts handed over by the new energy passenger car market in September.
According to the data of the Association, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in September was 65,015 units, down 34.11% year-on-year, and the decline was further expanded.
At the regular meeting of the meeting held on October 12, Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the Association, said that the new energy vehicle market has been lowered in 2019, but the number is lowered. Cui Dongshu told the first electric, due to recent months. The changes are fierce, the market performance is not good, and there is no specific down-prediction in the association. At present, it is a more optimistic estimate to be equal to last year.
Two days later, at the regular meeting of the China Automobile Association, Chen Shihua, assistant secretary-general of the China Automobile Association, also issued a similar view: the rebound rate and recovery rate of the auto industry did not meet expectations, and the impact of new energy vehicle subsidies on the industry Large, the expected target is not far from the actual completion, and it is difficult to complete the goal.
Really, the subsidy retreat has caused an overdraft of market demand, but the three-year negative growth for the third consecutive month has never happened. The overdraft effect alone does not seem to be sufficient.
So, what are the reasons behind the three consecutive falls?
01 Leasing of rental methods, cold on the public market
On October 16, Xiaopeng Automobile Chairman He Xiaopeng issued a circle of friends, pointing out that after deducting the public data, the new energy vehicles sold only about 100,000 vehicles to real consumers.
But according to the amount of dangerAccording to statistics, from January to August this year, the cumulative number of new energy-operated vehicles accounted for 30.29%, and individual users are still the mainstream.
About the difference between the two, the first electric also asked some relevant personnel in the industry, they said that due to the existence of the network car company through various means to rely on the name of the car to facilitate the application of subsidies, so The private market does not have much data to display.
The real share of the public market is not going to be deepened, but the public market is indeed a big part of the new energy passenger car market, and its growth has also been driving the rapid development of the new energy market.
But in the past two months, the public market has also turned out to be one of the reasons for the decline in sales of the new energy passenger vehicle market.
According to the first electric understanding, as the largest travel platform in China, the relevant policies of Didi Travel are being adjusted, and the lease method of the network car company will be changed from financial leasing to operating leasing.
” For example, when financing leases, the operating driver pays a certain fee to the network car company every month. After the scheduled end, the vehicle belongs to the driver. It can be understood that the operating driver borrows money from the network car company to buy a car. Then, it is repaid in the form of installment payment. For the network car company, the fixed asset of the car will eventually be bought by the driver, and the company itself will not have too many fixed assets squeezed.
But after changing to operating lease, the network car company is similar to the taxi company. The car belongs to the network car company. The driver is only renting a car. This will make the fixed assets become heavier for the network car company, and the risk will follow. Increased. In the past, the network car company could enter 500 or even 1000 cars at a time, but now dare not enter so much, because the plenary session becomes its own fixed assets. “An industry insider Z explained this with the first electric exchange, and also stressed that the policy adjustment of Didi is the main reason for the recent lack of demand in the network car market.
Z also mentioned that the current dual-city urban network car market has become saturated, and the incremental space in this market is very limited.
This statement coincides with the results obtained by the first electric in Hangzhou in July this year. According to the local new energy 4S shop dealers in Hangzhou, the number of large customers this year is far less thanIn the first two years, the situation worsened after entering the second half of the year. At present, the number of vehicles in Hangzhou is about 60,000, but about 10,000 of them are in idle state.
It can be seen that even if the nationwide new network car “power limit” has become a trend, the network car company’s own risk increases, the operating driver’s income decreases, the market tends to be saturated, the pure electric vehicle’s battery life short board, etc. They are all problems in the direction of the development of new energy passenger cars. With the gradual outbreak of the problem, the gradual turning of the public market is also reasonable.
02 The private market is affected by the price cut of fuel vehicles, and the competitiveness of new energy vehicles is insufficient
There is a change in the public market, and there are many factors influencing the private market.
As early as May of this year, Li Jinyong, chairman of Zhonghai Tongchuang, mentioned in the first electric interview that the implementation of the national six emission standards has a serious impact on the new energy market. With the introduction of the national six, the national five models The price of the price is very large, and the price is far more than the new energy vehicle.
A self-owned brand car market director also mentioned in the first electric exchange, the economics of the main use of new energy vehicles is not enough to support the country in the face of the large price of the national five models. Five models compete. Coupled with the recent reports of new energy fire incidents in recent months and the problem of maintaining the value of new energy vehicles, the enthusiasm of consumers for new energy vehicles is hard to rise, and the clearance of the National Five models is indeed largely occupied. The share of the new energy vehicle market.
In addition to the strong clearance of the five models of the country, the increase in the limit of the city’s fuel vehicle indicators also makes the consumer’s mentality begin to change.
As the main market for new energy passenger cars, the four key cities of new energy vehicles in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have always been the battleground for new energy vehicles.
According to the rough estimate of the First Electric Research Institute, the personal indicator of 54,000 new energy in Beijing in 2019 has already consumed 80%. In the last quarter, it is impossible to bring too much incremental space to the market. In Guangzhou and Shenzhen, although the announcement of the increase of the passenger car index was issued on June 2 this year, most of the new indicators are not for new energy vehicles.
Guangzhou, from June 2019 to December 2020, a total of 100,000 increments of small and medium-sized passenger cars will be added. In addition, in principle, the index of ordinary vehicles and the indicators of energy-saving vehicles will be allocated in a 1:1 ratio. In addition to the pure electric and plug-in models, this semi-energy-saving vehicle includes nine hybrid models of Guangqi Honda, GAC Toyota, FAW Toyota and Dongfeng Honda.
Shenzhen is from June 2019 to December 2020, with an annual increase of 40,000 ordinary car indicators. The new indicators have not given the new energy market a share.
The loose purchase restriction policy did not bring real benefits to the new energy market. Instead, other consumers in the restricted city had expectations of policy loosening and a strong wait-and-see mood.
The new energy market is entering the adjustment phase, but the future is still
On October 15, local time, the International Monetary Fund released the latest issue of the World Economic Outlook Report (hereinafter referred to as the “Report”) in Washington. The “Report” said that the global economic growth has slowed down and the prospects are uncertain. Therefore, the world economic growth rate in the previous 2019 will be lowered to 3%, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than the forecast in July this year. This is also the 2008 financial The lowest level since the crisis erupted.
Under the global environment of overall economic cold, it is unrealistic to require the new energy market to “beautiful side of the landscape”. Cui Dongshu also admitted that the new energy vehicle market has entered the adjustment stage, but also said that with the new Energy recognition has further improved, and the potential for recovery of new energy passenger vehicles is still large.
Anqing Heng, director of the China Automotive Industry Advisory Committee, also told the first electric: “You can’t doubt the direction of development because of short-term difficulties. The joint venture brands, including the BBA, are all wired. This will not be a decision made by the brain. At present, most foreign-funded enterprises are a bit of a slap in the face, but their reserves in this area are certainly quite a lot. If we are shaken now, and the market is mature, when these companies are fully attacked, we will lose our advantage again.”