In the fourth quarter of 2019, I would like to give you five suggestions for buying a house.
Editor’s note: This article is from WeChat public account: really makes Rousseau, (ID: zhenjiaolujun0426) , author: really makes Rousseau, authorized reprint
The fourth quarter of 2019, write a more end-of-life article, the last five purchases this year.
Since it is the last five, it should be regarded as the bottom line thinking. On this basis, you can play it separately, but these five suggestions hope that everyone will not break.
This is also a friend, I especially want to talk to you.
01, stable policy is the best market
Looking at this paragraph carefully, in my eyes, what kind of property market is a better market, that is, a strict policy market or a policy market that has always been relaxed is a particularly good urban atmosphere in my eyes.
If a city maintains a strict purchase policy, such as Shanghai, such as Changsha, it means that the energy level or potential of the first city is particularly good, and it is already obvious, so it is necessary to use policy control, in other words, house prices. Undervalued market
If you have the right to purchase then you are buying the spread.
If a city is particularly open and inclusive, it is open and settled. For example, Shenzhen, such as Zhuhai, shows that the city is continuously introducing foreign populations, and the future vitality is guaranteed
If the planning of the city is conceptual and has a part to be implemented, the future space is also visible to the naked eye
In other words, I am more worried about what kind of city, that is, the property market policy has been changing in the past 2 years
Either the liberation is loose or the rigorous, too turbulent policy essentially indicates that the property market has made relatively obvious mistakes in the past, and the policy will not correct the error to some extent but suppress the error, so this time you go in. Is paying for the error
In the current market, as long as the city enters a stable rhythm, the property market has been more moderate, then the city development is entering a positive virtuous circle, such a city will not be too bad
02, beware of the surge in second-hand supply cities
This is an angle that many people will ignore. In the property market has been operating in a model for a long time, that is, second-hand housing in the first-tier cities is definitely the main force, accounting for 70% of the total turnover, and the share of first-hand housing is getting less and less.
RanAfter that, other cities are basically dominated by first-hand houses, the proportion of second-hand is very low, and the second-line may be 20%-30%. Many third-tier cities do not even have second-hand market
This logic is due to the lack of long-term real estate development cycles in these cities and the market’s main supply structure
But this subtle change has slowly changed since the beginning of 2018. We have monitored some data, that is, in the cities with chain stores, the supply of second-hand houses in second- and third-tier cities has begun to surge
The reason for this surge is that the first-hand houses in the past five years have been maintained in the volume of transactions, and these volumes are now slowly handing over to the house and then becoming second-hand houses. The most obvious is the new line like Hangzhou, Suzhou
This phenomenon is different from that of first-tier cities. The supply of the first-line is slowly increasing, so there is no such surge. The other product line is slowly increasing, so the first-hand product is still better than second-hand. Be stronger.
But the second and third lines are different, and the quality of the second new house is even more than one hand.
The biggest problem is that it will interfere with market pricing, and users will compare after they have a choice. At this time, whether you go in and buy a second hand, this price interference will always exist.
The most troublesome thing is to buy in one hand. In the future, your receiver will be more entangled than you are now. At that time, let the receiver buy one hand or buy the second hand in your hand. You need more reasons. p>
Although this is not a fatal problem, it will make many property owners feel very uncomfortable. The overall pricing logic will take two years to visualize before it will be deposited
03, look for the urban layout of some rooted enterprises
The layout of some developers is actually worth learning and learning from many buyers, such as Vanke, Sunac, Jinmao.
These companies have their own characteristics, but the biggest trait is that they don’t go to too many cities, but they don’t go anywhere, and they have been developing in this city. What does this mean, these cities can be developed in a long line, and they think that the future houses will get better and more expensive, and only then will they go
Know that these are all they have invested in the real money market, so you just have to follow them.
Especially in the new city they are at this stage, they must have seen a lot of space to go, so I often recommend that if these brands are the first project in a city, in fact, everyone can buy with their eyes closed.
Because the first description of the city is good, the second is that the first project is always a reputation brand, and these real estate companies have also done good products, so they will be more secure
And it’s a direct point. If you buy it now, you will go in and out. There are new projects behind you to raise the price. Isn’t it a good thing?
Of course there is a premise here, it is market-based biddingGoing to the land, it’s not a merger and acquisition project. It’s not that the project is not good, but these projects are not a choice under market-oriented judgment. It may be that the two bosses have a meal
This kind of emotional decision-making boss is just fine, let’s take a look at it
04, stay away from the big and complete, believe in the concept of clear location value
This was also discovered during the recent watch, especially in Shanghai
People who watch more people may find that you go to every sales office, their floor plan tells you the current location, it seems to be the best, this location is the best from the matching, planning and all kinds of benefits. . If you look at the real estate, you may have a difference. What is the best location? Which is bad?
And such a large and full-packaged concept has a variety of problems in the current property market
A closer look at some of the hot-selling locations, Shanghai is more secure, or Dahongqiao, or the port, or the foreshore, is a location with a very precise and clear concept.
It’s just like watching the Putuo’s really good winds, such a good location, Shanghai Central, in the past, the value of this location can be blown to the sky, but the so-called downtown or city sub-center of this pseudo-concept The concept is cold now…
So this is what all buyers need to pay attention to. When you go to a disc, they describe the location must be good, but be sure to stay away from the big but full but no memory project
Always ask yourself what is missing in this project area, different, particularly strong, real
Now it’s the real meaning of the subway house that is within walking distance. It’s so good to sell the business district in a few minutes. The real school district sells well. The quality of the community in the business district is not good enough to sell; in the suburbs, there are also good selling of the aborigines, and it is not easy to sell the foreign population.
Everything is moving closer to the real point of view, so especially for investment screens, there is no need to pay attention to where the irreplaceable location is.
05, believe in the value of investment brought by self-occupation
What do you mean by this sentence? Give you an example. I recently went to see Shanghai. I think that an out-of-print luxury house project has been developed for five or six years. The total price is from 30 million to 50 million. Every time I take it out, it is sold out in three hours.
I asked why, he and I said a piece of data, saying that there are only a few hundred sets sold in Shanghai to 30 million houses a year, and there are thousands of them in Shanghai. Said the country.
This kind of house is the most lacking supply and demand
And this kind of product is the most stable in the turbulent property market, because there is always someone who needs it, and it is a real need. These houses are not used for vacant, they are used for living. It is because of this that the value preservation is the most Strong
This actually reflects the fact that the industry has developed into a lot of investment in many communities, and the last two phenomena in these communities are the first because the property fees are not much, so the quality of the community declines, the second second-hand housing The competition is fierce, so the price will not go
This kind of house is the second-lowest in the market. Of course, the first one is old and small, and every time you have to come out and emphasize it.
These houses are as evasive as possible, especially in cities with limited room tickets. I will tell some friends that if you only have one room ticket, you can buy a second-hand house with less selling space. This kind of house must be very comfortable. If you have anything to sell, someone will pick up soon. p>
Always believe that the house does not live, so I always believe that the house with the last value is also the most valuable investment
06, Finally, give some suggestions.
1, don’t go out to sea, not to say that there is no chance, but the current environment, I think the opportunity to go out to sea is not ordinary people. If someone tells you that you are an ordinary person but you can counterattack, think about him more. Why are you saying this to you?
2. It’s not as good as a long-term flow. Be wary of the skyrocketing price and the sudden increase and wilting of the volume. These are not good phenomena. A city with the same endurance and the same quality as me is a good city
3. Don’t guess the future, because you can’t guess, almost 60% of the real estate owners can’t understand the future trend, let alone us, be careful of the swindlers
4, you must have cash flow, you should not lose your job
Last sentence: Don’t add leverage, don’t add leverage, don’t add leverage, add leverage is gambling, ten gambling, lose, don’t feel gambling is a right thing, you love gambling, no one is blocking You, but remember to be willing to gamble and lose money with your own losses