Winter is approaching, the winter of real estate seems to come earlier.
Editor’s note: This article is from WeChat public account: News and property, (ID: hexunhouse) , author: Dan Dan Chang, authorized reprint
According to the data of Kerry, the market performance of the “Golden Nine” market in the traditional sales season just ended is unremarkable. The transaction volume of new commercial residential buildings in key cities fell by 6%, down 2% year-on-year, less than the monthly average of 2019, no gold. At that time.
With the tightening of regulatory policies and financing channels that have no signs of relaxation, housing companies have to increase their push. The data show that in September, nearly half of the cities’ supply and demand ratios rebounded, and more than half of the cities were oversupply. Among them, there are many core first- and second-tier cities such as Beijing and Wuhan. The supply-demand ratio is over 1, and the market demand is weak, which has aggravated the embarrassment of housing enterprises.
With the 2019 schedule approaching the final chapter of the door, how the performance of the various housing companies in the first three quarters has become the focus of attention of all parties. From the data point of view, under the pressure of unsatisfactory sales in the industry, the house Corporate sales continued to grow steadily, and the number of broken 100 billion companies increased to 20.
According to the incomplete statistics of Hexun Real Estate, according to the 42 real estate enterprises that have announced the sales target, combined with the sales amount data of the Zhongzhiyuan, Hexun Real Estate has sorted out the list of completed annual sales targets of the real estate enterprises in the first three quarters. At the end of September, nearly 40% of the target enterprises achieved a target completion rate of more than 75%. Among them, Longguang Real Estate ranked first with a completion rate of 93%, becoming the only real estate company with a completion rate of over 90%. Some people are happy, and some people are naturally embarrassed. In this list, Taihe’s target completion rate is only 45.5%, which is also the only one with half the completion rate.
The completion rate is over 70%, and is not as good as the same period last year
From the sales data released in the first nine months of the China Railways Institute, the completion of the company’s performance target is further clear, and the average sales target completion rate is 75.87%, which is an increase of 28.37 percentage points compared with the first half of the year. The strength is not small.
specificIn view of the fact, among the 42 housing enterprises, the completion rate of 16 real estate enterprises exceeded the average, accounting for 38%, among which, Longguang, Jinke, Kaisa, Sunshine City, Shimao, Zhonghai, Jinmao, China Merchants Shekou, Binjiang Group 9 The performance of the home business is outstanding, and the target completion rate is over 80%. As the only real estate company with a completion rate of over 90%, Longguang Real Estate is not far from achieving the annual performance target.
The number of housing companies with a sales target completion rate between 60% and 75% is 24, which is not difficult to find. In addition to Poly and Sunac. Outside the enterprise, the camp is dominated by new 100 billion housing companies. However, Welfare, Greentown and R&F are only 60% of the annual performance targets, and the completion of the two real estate enterprises is less than 60%. It is Huafa and Taihe Group, and the performance completion rates are 55.5% and 45.5% respectively.
Although the scale is still the main appeal of most housing companies, the unavoidable fact is that the completion of housing business performance is not as good as the same period last year. According to the data, as of the end of September last year, among the housing enterprises that set the annual sales target, more than half of the 22 real estate enterprises had a target completion rate of more than 75%, and the rest were basically between 65% and 75%. .
Zhang Huadong, chief analyst of Yihan think tank, analyzed that the sales situation of enterprises in September was still higher than expected, and the year-on-year growth rate was good. Especially for some head enterprises, including TOP20-TOP30 enterprises, the growth was more gratifying. As for the sales target, if some housing enterprises exceed 80%, the annual sales target will be better, but at the same time, some enterprises have only 60% or less of the completion, which has certain pressure on the completion of the annual target.
Longguang, Jiazhao Industry is in a high position in the dark horse
There is no surprise in the market, but in this ranking of 10 real estate enterprises with less than 100 billion performance targets, Longguang and Kaisa have two power-hungry housing companies that are in the forefront of the black horse. Light has topped the list with a target completion rate of 93%, and Kaisa ranked third with 84.7%.
According to the “2019 first half of the 2019 sales amount TOP50 housing enterprise performance target completion rate” issued by Hexun Real Estate, in just three months, Longguang was upgraded from the sixth place to the first place, and the completion rate increased by 40.28 percentage points, while Kaisa It is also a 45-point increase in the number of counter-attacks from 36 in the first half of the year to the third in the first three quarters.
The leaps and bounds are inseparable from the industry’s long-standing “scale theory”. Even if the real estate market enters a new normal, there is a scale of status, and the underlying logic of having the right to speak has not changed, plus the market. The share is further concentrated, and the pressure on small and medium-sized housing enterprises is self-evident. Continued sales growth has become a talisman for small and medium-sized housing enterprises to resist the fate of being eliminated.
In addition, a commonality is that Longguang and Kaisa are both leading enterprises in the Bay Area, with abundant land storage in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, and through the city.New years of deep cultivation. As of the first half of this year, Longguang Real Estate has a total land area of about 54.69 million square meters, and the total value of land storage is about 752 billion yuan, of which the value of land storage in Dawan District is 611.1 billion yuan, accounting for 81% of the total value of goods. The value of the goods is 325 billion yuan, Dawan District accounts for more than 90%, and Kaisa has nearly 26 million square meters of land storage. About 14.1 million square meters is located in Dawan District, accounting for 54.6% of the Group’s overall land bank. Based on this, at the semi-annual results conference, the two housing companies clearly expressed their confidence in the completion of the annual performance target.
In the case of Kaisa, for example, according to the semi-annual report for the first half of this year, the area with the highest sales contribution is Dawan District, accounting for 59%, an increase of 3 percentage points year-on-year, of which Shenzhen regional sales accounted for 30% of the total, and Dawan District’s sales contribution has been the highest in the region for four consecutive years. Therefore, companies such as Kaisa, which sell well in Dawan District, will maximize the completion of the company’s annual sales target.
The pressure of new 100 billion housing companies
As mentioned above, the completion rate is between 60% and 75%, and the majority of the 100 billion housing companies. In the first three quarters, the overall performance of the newly-received 100 billion housing enterprises was tired, lower than the industry average. The target completion rate of the 12 new 100 billion housing enterprises with announced performance targets was 72.89%. Among them, the completion of Jinke, Sunshine City, Jinmao, Longhu and Agile was more optimistic.
In fact, in the fall of the traditional sales season “Golden September and Silver 10” did not come as expected, under the pressure of sales, many housing companies showed a decline in sales.
On October 10, the sales report released by Rongsheng Development in September showed that the contracted sales area reached 680,900 square meters in the month, down 11.98% from the previous month, and the contract sales amount was 6.673 billion yuan, down 14.43% from the previous month. 9800.26 yuan / m2, compared with last month, compared with 279.88 yuan per square meter, down 2.78%.
The same decline in sales is also the Ocean Group and Jinmao. In September, COSCO Group’s agreed sales amounted to 13.52 billion yuan, which was the same as that of the same period of last year. The average selling price was 19,100/m2, a decrease of 53% compared with the same period of last year. Jinmao’s sales amount and sales area increased slightly by 1.06% and 0.25% respectively. The sales area growth rate hit a new low this year.
Gu Chao, research director of the China Index Research Institute R&D Center, said that in terms of sales, the sales performance of the housing enterprises in January-September was still improved year-on-year. However, in the context of continued tightening of market regulation, the sales of housing enterprises increased year-on-year. The speed has slowed down. From the perspective of quarterly sales, the expected increase in revenue since March has driven the recovery of key cities. Housing companies have actively adjusted the marketing rhythm and accelerated the project launch and turnover rate. In the first half of the year, the company’s sales performance still has Breakthrough. However, after entering the third quarter, although the overall push of the company has not diminished, but under the situation that the policy control is not relaxed and the financial supervision is strict, the market wait-and-see mood is relatively strong, and the project is not ready to be opened.Jin Jiuyin is not enough.
In general, real estate companies are pushing the peak in September, sales will almost always be better than August, and behind the decline in data is the coldness of the market. In the context of slowing growth in the industry and tightening regulation, overall, some housing companies still have some pressure to complete the annual performance targets. In the fourth quarter, they still need to accelerate the introduction of goods into the market and actively push the market.