There is no egg under the nest.
Editor’s note: This article is from “Future Car Daily” (WeChat public ID: auto-time), author: Li Huanhuan.
Author | Li Huanhuan
Edit | Wu Yan
The depression in the auto market has finally affected the new energy vehicle market. The new energy vehicles that have also grown against the trend in 2018 seem to suddenly press the pause button.
Since July of this year, sales of new energy vehicles have experienced a year-on-year decline for three consecutive months, and for the first time in five years, there have been “three consecutive declines”. According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as the “China Automobile Association”, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles in September was 89,000 and 80,000 respectively, down 29.9% and 34.2% year-on-year. This figure is even close to two years. The former level, whether it is year-on-year or quarter-on-quarter, showed a rare decline.
After all the way, the new energy vehicles will not grow wildly.
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association (hereinafter referred to as “the Association”), believes that since the end of June, subsidies have further declined, resulting in a significant increase in the cost of sales of new energy vehicles. It is difficult for car companies to respond in time. The changes have caused the overall market sales to decline, and the impact of subsidies will continue.
When the new energy market was cold, Xiaopeng’s chairman He Xiaopeng threw a “bomb”, which cruelly and truly faded the high-growth aura of new energy vehicles. On October 16, He Xiaopeng said on his personal social platform that he stripped all kinds of interference data. In the first three quarters of 2019, there were only a hundred thousand pure electric vehicles sold to real consumers in the Chinese market.
Even some people questioned that the rapid growth of new energy vehicles is only a false boom. As subsidies continue to decline, what will the future of new energy vehicles look like?
Internal and external troubles
In the view of Xu Haidong, assistant secretary-general of the China Automobile Association, the main reason for the three consecutive declines in new energy vehicles is the “subsidy to the slope”.
On March 26, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the “Notice on Further Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles,” and officially announced a new round of subsidy policy. The New Deal stipulates that the transition period will be from March 26 to June 25. After the end of the transition period, the subsidy standard will declining by an average of 50% on the basis of 2018, while local subsidies will be cancelled.
In addition, Xu Haidong said that the fuel vehicle market is in the period of the national five and the national six switch period, the dealers promoted the national five models, and seized the market share of some new energy vehicles.
In addition to the above-mentioned external problems, the new energy vehicles themselves are also constantly worried.
Shi Jianhua, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Association, said in an interview with the media that the new energy vehicle suddenly encountered cold, which was related to the imperfection of its own products. The safety and stability of the battery should be improved, and consumers still use the actual vehicle. There is cruising mileage anxiety. In addition, charging is still a big problem that plagues car owners.
Mr. Wei, the owner of the electric car, told the Future Auto Daily (ID: auto-time) that she sold the electric car that she bought for less than a year because “charging is really inconvenient.” “When I first bought a car, I only thought of it. Now I think it’s convenient for public transportation.”
The low residual value of used cars is also a major factor for consumers to hesitate.
The China Automobile Circulation Association’s previously released report on China’s auto insurance coverage shows that, except for Tesla and BMW, the three-year hedge ratio of new energy vehicles is less than 50%, and the mainstream brands BYD and Roewe are about 40%, far below The average fuel vehicle is 60%.
However, some new car-building forces are actively looking for solutions.
On October 15, there were media reports that Weilai Automobile will launch an official used car service by the end of this year. Relevant personnel said that the official second-hand car insurance rate will be higher than the market price, and even equivalent to the level of luxury fuel vehicles of the same class.
On August 15th, Weimar Motors released a user care plan. In three years, users can purchase new models of Weimar at a depreciation price of 61.8%. Prior to this, Xiaopeng Automobile launched a three-year and six-fold replacement policy to take the initiative to protect the second-hand car’s maintenance rate.
Based on the above, the China Automobile Association lowered its forecast for new energy vehicle sales for the whole year in July, from 1.7 million to 1.5 million.
The latest production and sales data released by the China Automobile Association showed that the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in January-September were 872,000, only 58.1% of the full-year target was achieved. Looking at it now, 1.5 million cars are probably too difficult to complete.
Head brand stalls
There is no egg under the nest. Affected by the overall market downturn, new energy car companies are almost “everyone is at risk.”
On the evening of October 10, BYD released the sales report for September 2019. In September, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 14,000, a year-on-year drop of 51% and a decrease of 18.2% from the previous month. Since July, BYD’s new energy vehicle sales have also experienced “three consecutive losses”. From January to September, BYD’s new energy vehicles sold 193,000 units, an increase of 34.41% year-on-year, and only completed 45.9% of the annual target of 420,000 units.
The completion rate of Beiqi New Energy, another head company, is not too high. According to public data, in September, Beiqi New Energy sold 10,000 new vehicles, down 13% year-on-year. The cumulative sales volume of Beiqi New Energy from January to September was 9.