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It feels that the whole world is developing in the direction of “doing more work and getting more money”, but what kind of scene will it be in the future?

Acemoglu’s model can’t tell us. However, this paper reminds me of the example of “AI leading to unemployment” that I experienced in the past two years – Ali’s transformation of advertising design.

3/5, AI kills the designer

After a round of marketing, companies will definitely push a large number of advertisements to consumers. The formation process of these advertisements is very complicated, at least through the four stages of “strategy-creative-production-delivery”, which are undertaken by different categories of advertising personnel.

The biggest problem with this process is that the decision is complicated and the time is too long. I first joined the advertising industry and served a car manufacturer. Their new models will start advertising planning a year ago.

But since 2014, I have witnessed the transformation of AI in this industry–Alibaba’s first “Luban AI” for Taobao sellers, you only need to define several core key elements, the system will Automatically generate a series of advertising banners, which has killed the “designer, copywriting” work.

Even the job of “creative director” even because the system also provides a traffic test environment, you can choose a high click-through rate, or a good collection, or a good conversion rate to achieve different advertising intentions.

So, this system theoretically can help small businesses save manpower, help middle sellers improve the performance of advertising conversion; help large brands to optimize the advertising process and improve the efficiency of promotion decisions.

It is very obvious that if Luban AI is mature in technology in the future and the cost is controllable, it is entirely possible to promote it to the marketing scenes of merchants outside the Tao Department, which will lead to the disappearance of many positions in the advertising industry chain. unemployment.

But on the other hand, this system makes the two strategies of “strategy” and “assessment” more important and requires new positions.

First of all, the system needs to generate a series of precise keywords to generate advertisements. This part of the work existed before, but it was actually distributed in the various executions of planning, design, and copywriting, but in the era of AI design, it was pre-positioned, and needed a special position to be responsible for precise definitions –

A new position was born. It may also be called “planning”, but the focus is completely different and requires a deep understanding and cooperation with the “AI system”.

Of course, I believe that with the development of “machine learning”, future AI design does not need to “define keywords”, it should “actively learn” your needs from your past ads, that is, this “New positions” can also be replaced.

But the problem is that “strategic thinking” will never disappear in the advertising industry, nor can it be learned by AI. It can only be forwarded to product strategy, consumer strategy, channel strategy and even corporate strategy. Wait for the earlier links, higher levels of thinking.

Look at the “test, evaluation” link in the AI ​​design backend, too.

Before the “advertising test” was very troublesome and limited, only large promotion was used. But the emergence of AI design will make “advertising testing” a standard. This way, you need to cooperate with the AI ​​design test plan to interpret the test results.It is also a new position.

There is also “Advertising Effect Evaluation”, which was only a work attached to the media personnel. The main function is to enrich the closing report and invite the advertiser to invite the reward, but in the AI ​​creative era, it will directly affect the “machine learning”. The ability has actually become a newly created position.

Looking back, AI will create some new jobs in the upstream and downstream of this link in order to make the work of “self” more efficient.

Of course, new jobs are less likely to be “artificial intelligence, machine learning,” and so on, directly serving AI positions.

A lot of people have to ask. It seems that they are looking at the positions of planning and analyzing. It seems that only creative people have been killed.

In fact, creative people are not being killed, but doing things that are more capable.

This is “play”!

4/5, the future human form of work is “play”?

In the future we can imagine (ie “weak artificial intelligence” era), AI can’t create any new ideas They simply break down existing ideas into relationships between various data and data and then recombine them. They don’t understand these results. They understand only the relevance of the data, not the logical causality—the latter is the unique ability of human beings.

AI can not only create any new ideas, it also needs to be “fed” with a lot of new ideas to work more efficiently. Now, “feeding” to AI is a work that has been accumulated for thousands of years, but in the future, the competition will intensify and more new ideas will be needed.

The creation of these new ideas is the new job of creative people.

In the past and present advertising processes, creative people must think business. They must know how advertisers, not consumers, see their ideas, even if they rely on this ability rather than their true creative ability. High salary and promotion opportunities.

This mode of work is a great waste of many talented creative people, so AI is the liberator of creative people, not the terminator –

Once AI becomes a bridge between creatives and advertisers, creative people will be freed from business thinking that is not theirs, returning to more purely artistic innovations, and how these ideas are commercialized, This is what AI has to consider.

I don’t know what the future creative people’s work style is – this is the area that science fiction writers are good at. It may be similar to current painters and writers, completely free to create, or it may be a new form of work.

How do they get income? I don’t know, the big probability is not to get the salary on a monthly basis as it is now. It doesn’t necessarily sell the painting like the current painter. It is like a writer to collect royalties. It may be a charging model that we can’t imagine, but there must be A new method appears.

In the industrial era of high division of labor, idlers who are not working are shameful, but the boundaries between future creative work and leisure may be very vague, and at the same time they can earn income in some form.

5/5, labor will be a real right

In the recent US presidential election, the Democratic Party jumped out of a Chinese-born candidate named Yang Anze and proposed the core claim of “one thousand dollars per person per month to cope with the challenge of artificial intelligence.” This slogan seems to be populist, practical. From the point of view of the article “AI’s irreversible transformation of employment”, Yang Anze’s thinking may be very advanced, so a considerable part of his supporters come from Silicon Valley, including Aaron Mask.

A person sends a monthly payment. Now it is a temporary relief. In the future, it may become the “national income” of the whole people. On the basis of this income, everyone can work informally through “playing”. Get more income.

The reason why the work makes us feel bored is that because there is more or less a rigid content, it makes us not interested, and because we want to survive in the totalitarian organization of the company, we Have to give up part of their personality and living habits.

AI is more advantageous in this part of our disgusting work. It is most efficient in doing stereotyped work, and has no personality, not afraid to become a slave to totalitarianism./strong>, After this part of the work is stripped, it is very likely that the future work that is suitable for human beings will undergo a fundamental change in its form.