Wei Lai fell into the dark moment since the listing.
Editor’s note: This article from the micro-channel public number “Zero Finance” (ID: Finance_01), author Rainforest.
In November 2014, Weilai Auto was founded in Shanghai, China. Together with the new energy auto companies such as Xiaopeng Automobile, which was born in the same year, and Weimar Automobile, which was born the following year, it became the “new force for Chinese car manufacturing”.
We have chosen the same strategy as Tesla since its inception, launching products from the top down, first launching its own high-end models, and then gradually exploring the low-end market, so Weilai Automobile was Some people call it “Chinese version”Tesla”.
Wei Lai Auto was founded by Internet companies, investment institutions and entrepreneurs such as Li Bin, Liu Qiangdong, Li Xiang, Tencent, Gaochun Capital and Shunwei Capital, and obtained Temasek, Baidu Capital, Sequoia Capital, Magnolia, The investment of dozens of well-known institutions such as IDG and Lenovo Group has been successfully listed on the New York Stock Exchange within five years. At that time, the market is very optimistic about the prospects of Weilai Automobile.
2018 is the peak year of Weilai Motors, but after 2019, the situation of this car company seems to have turned sharply. The poor sales performance, the sharp decline in the stock price and the huge losses made Weilai Automobile into a financial quagmire. When you discuss the prospects of this car company, what more attention can it last?
On September 24, Weilai Automobile released its second quarter earnings report for 2019. Some analysts said that this is the worst quarter since Weilai Motor’s listing. Weilai did not produce a satisfactory one as expected. The answer sheet caused investors to panic sell. Today, the total market capitalization of Weilai Automobile is only 1.6 billion US dollars. Its share price has fallen by 75.2% compared with the price of IPO, and it has decreased by 84.6% compared with the highest point of the stock price.
The latest delivery data: quite 2019 fourth quarter?
On October 8th, Weilai Automobile announced the delivery data for the third quarter of 2019. The data shows that in the third quarter, Weilai Automobile delivered a total of 4,799 new energy vehicles, including 4,196 ES6 and 603 ES8. Compared with the same period last year, the delivery volume in the third quarter increased by 46.9%; compared with the second quarter of 2019, the delivery volume in the third quarter increased by 35.1%.
Wei Lai Automobile expects to deliver 4,400 to 4,400 vehicles in the third quarter in the second quarter report. The third-quarter delivery exceeded expectations and led to the increase in the share price of Weilai Automobile. On the day of the release of the new vehicle delivery data in the third quarter, Weilai’s share price has rebounded sharply by 20.5%.
Table 1: Weilai Auto Delivery and Revenue
Source: Weilai Auto’s third quarter delivery report, Zero 壹智库整理
As shown in the above table, in the third quarter of the new car delivery of Wei Lai, nearly 90% of the delivery was contributed by the ES6 model. The Weilai ES6 is a model launched in the second quarter of 2019. Compared with the ES8, although the vehicle space and some hardware configurations are reduced, from the perspective of technological progress, the ES6’s electronic system and manufacturing process are not. Lost to the ES8, plus the price is nearly 100,000 lower than the ES8 average, so it has quiteThe degree of price/performance ratio, the choice between consumers in ES6 and ES8 has also been clearly reflected in the delivery data of the third quarter. It is expected that ES6 will become the main sales force of Weilai Automobile and drive revenue in the coming period. increase. At present, Weilai Automobile has not announced the third quarter revenue, but even in the second quarter’s unit revenue calculation, the third quarter revenue has exceeded 2 billion yuan, an increase of 38.7%, an increase of 35.1%.
So does the Weilai Auto’s unexpected third-quarter delivery data mean that the situation of this new energy car company has begun to improve? Obviously, only through the improvement of delivery data and the expected growth of revenue can not be a comprehensive measure of the current situation of the company, we also need to take other factors into consideration.
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cost of sales
Wei Lai’s quarterly revenue is highly correlated with the number of new vehicles it delivers, so the cost of new car sales is the most important and largest cost to affect Weilai’s revenue. According to historical data, the cost-to-income ratio of Weilai Automobile is between 1 and 1.33. If the cost and income in the third quarter of 2019 are estimated according to the most optimistic situation, the cost-to-income ratio can be set to 1. In this case, The sales cost of Xiawei Automobile in the third quarter of 2019 is the same as the estimated total revenue.
Table 2: Estimated sales cost of Weilai Automobile
Source: Weilai Auto’s quarterly report, zero-thinking pool finishing
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Operating costs
According to the historical quarterly earnings report published by Weilai Automobile, its operating costs mainly come from two aspects: first, research and development expenses (R&D), and second, sales management expenses (SGA).
Wei Lai’s investment in R&D has been very high. The average R&D expenditure for the four quarters from the third quarter of 2018 to the second quarter of 2019 exceeded RMB 1.2 billion. According to the second quarter of 2019, Weilai Automobile will reduce the total number of employees from 9,000 in January 2019 to 7,800 in the end of the third quarter of 2019. The average R&D expenses of the previous four quarters are estimated as the third quarter of 2019 R&D expenses, and the R&D expenses for the third quarter of 2019 are about 1.23 billion yuan.
Table 3: Weilai Automobile R&D Expenses
Source: Weilai Auto’s quarterly report, zero-thinking pool finishing
Based on the data from the previous four quarters and based on the ratio between sales management expenses and total revenue, we can roughly estimate the sales management fees of Weilai Automobile in the third quarter of 2019. As shown in the table below, from the third quarter of 2018 to the second quarter of 2019, the relevant ratios varied between 57% and 114%, and the ratio of sales management expenses to total revenue averaged 86%, based on the average ratio combined with Sales management fees can be estimated by estimating the total revenue for the third quarter of 2019.
Table 4: Weilai Auto Sales Management Fees
Source: Weilai Auto’s quarterly report, zero-thinking pool finishing
A summary of the above various estimates of Weilai Automobile’s third quarter financial indicators for 2019 can be obtained from the following table. It is estimated that Weilai Automobile’s operating loss in the third quarter of 2019 is nearly RMB 3 billion.
Table 5: Weilai Automobile’s operating loss in the third quarter of 2019 is nearly 3 billion
Source: Weilai Auto’s quarterly report, zero-thinking pool finishing
According to the second quarter earnings report for 2019, the total amount of cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments on the Weilai Auto Account at the end of the second quarter was approximately RMB 3.5 billion. In addition, in September 2019, through a total of 200 million US dollars in convertible bill financing between Tencent and founder Li Bin, Wei Lai Automobile had about 4.9 billion yuan of liquidity at the beginning of the third quarter. If you subtract nearly 3 billion operating losses from the third quarter of 2019, the remaining liquidity will not be enough to support Weilai Automobile.Normal operation until the end of the fourth quarter of 2019.
Deterioration of the external competitive environment
First of all, the changes in China’s new energy vehicle market have added a lot of uncertainty to Weilai’s sales in the next quarter. After the new energy vehicle subsidies began to be significantly reduced in June 2019, the overall sales volume of new energy vehicles in China has fallen sharply. From July 2019, the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales has entered a negative range, and sales have Continue to decline trend.
Figure: China’s new energy vehicle sales volume changes
Source: Passenger Car Market Information Association (CPCA)
Second, competition from other new energy vehicles has intensified, especially Tesla. Although Tesla has not yet announced the official launch of the Shanghai plant, there are increasing signs that the construction of the Tesla super factory in Shanghai is accelerating. Tesla is also working hard on the mass production of the Model 3 electric car. It is said that Model 3 has started assembly on the production line, and Tesla’s super factory in Shanghai is ready for full production. . According to the target set by Musk, by the end of 2019, Tesla’s weekly production in China will reach 1,000 vehicles, and by 2020 it is expected to produce 3,000 electric vehicles per week.
Table 6: Comparison of the main models of Weilai and Tesla
Source: Easy Car Network, Zero 壹智库整理
In addition, the upcoming domestic Model 3 will be slightly more attractive than the Weizhou ES6 in terms of price and cruising range. However, considering that the Model 3 is a sedan, if the target model of the consumer is an SUV, the potential customer may still choose the ES6. The biggest threat to Wei La Auto may come from Tesla’s Model Y, which will be launched next year. From the published information, Model Y is actually a small Model X, the domestic Model Y price of the same SUV model may be related to domestic Mo