This article is from WeChat public account: British investors (ID: buylondon) , author: William, cover: Oriental IC

Although the United Kingdom and the European Union formally reached a new Brexit agreement the day before yesterday, this does not mean a big end. The agreement also requires the approval of the leaders of the 27 EU countries and the British Parliament before it can take effect.

Not long ago, the 27 member states of the European Union had no suspense to approve the Brexit agreement. Next, Boris will concentrate on solving the domestic problems in the UK.

Although the British Parliament has not yet given a final decision, the market is clearly more confident than the previous three times.

After all the days of the news, the pound is still strong. The exchange rate against the RMB has remained above 9 for the past 24 hours and is currently closing at 9.13.

The picture shows the trend of GBP/RMB for nearly 24 hours

The pound against the US dollar is also strong, staying above 1.28 and is currently closing at 1.29.

The picture shows the trend of GBP/USD in the past 24 hours

Next, I will focus on analyzing whether Boris can get the British Parliament.

Before the analysis, let’s look at a picture made by the British Investor team. This picture clearly explains, what is the difference between the Boris Agreement and the previous Meilong Agreement? Where is the point where the opposition is entangled?

EU gives important assists

I wrote in a previous article that Boris hopes that the EU EU will exclude the option to postpone the Brexit and let the British Parliament choose one of the following two options:

1. Boris agreement to leave the European Union, or

2. No agreement to leave the EU

Boris hopes the EU will use an assist to help him win in the House of Commons.

In the face of Boris’s request, EU President Juncker agreed generously that the EU would not approve the UK’s postponement of Brexit.

Junker suggested that British parliamentarians must choose one from the Boris agreement or the non-agreement, and hope to give pressure to parliamentarians to pass Boris’s Brexit agreement.

It is worth noting that although Junck said so, the approval of the United Kingdom to delay the Brexit, he did not have the power to decide.

BBC correspondent analysis said that Juncker said this because he hoped to exert pressure on British parliamentarians to allow the British to leave some political legacy through the Brexit agreement during their term of office.Production.

Junker will officially step down as EU president after October 31.

Junk has no decision-making power. Who is the decision-making power?

In fact, the approval of the UK to delay the application for Brexit is mainly due to the 27 member states of the European Union, and each country has a veto.

According to the latest report, although German Chancellor Angela Merkel agreed to the UK to retain the option to postpone the Brexit, French President Mark Long said he would use a one-vote veto to veto Britain’s application for deferred tax.

Marcon said: “I don’t think we have to extend the UK to (I don’t think we should grant any further delay).”

3. Exiled Conservative MPs

In addition to the hard Brexit, Boris had to recall the 21 Conservative MPs who had been expelled from him.

Most of these people, like former Philip Hammond, were originally staunch supporters of the Meilong Brex Agreement.

In order to prevent the UK from going to a non-agreement to leave the European Union, the 21 Conservative Party members headed by Hammond will vote for Boris’ new agreement.

In addition to the expelled Conservative MP, former Prime Minister Cameron also gave Boris an assist.

Cameron said that if he is still a member of Parliament, he will support Boris’s Brexit agreement, which seems to be releasing signals to the former cabinet ministers.

In addition, Hunter, who had previously run for Boris’s campaign for prime minister, also greatly praised Boris on Twitter, praising him for a good deal.


4. The Brexit party from the opposition party – the Labour Party member

In addition to the Conservative Party and DUP, Labour MPs are also one of the keys to Boris’s vote to win the Brexit agreement.

According to the British media, some Labour Party members have announced that they will support Boris’s Brexit agreement on Saturday.

Back to March 29, 2019, when the Member voted for Mei Lan’s Brexit Agreement for the third time, there were five Labour Party members who chose to support the Brexit Agreement and two other former Labor Party independence. People also voted in favor.

In fact, since Boris took office, there have been many Labour Party members who have been trying to break the deadlock in the Brexit as soon as possible.

In early September this year, evenAt least one inter-party group established by Labour Party member Stephen Kinnock called “Members Supporting the Brexit Agreement” has drawn a total of 50 Labour Party members who support the Brexit Agreement.

And among the 50 Labour Party members, 19 core Labour Party members may support Boris’s Brexit agreement.

The Labour MPs also signed a letter to Junker and Tusk last week to encourage the EU to reach an agreement with Boris and demand that the referendum be honored on time.

According to the latest news, the Labor Party has confirmed that at least nine Labour Party members will support Boris’s Brexit agreement.

And, even more surprisingly, just today, the BBC also broke the news of important work inside the Labour Party.

Corbin said: “Even if Labour MPs choose to support Boris’s Brexit agreement, they will not be expelled from the party.”/p>

This means that Labour Party leader Corbin allows Labour MPs to choose whether to support the new Brexit agreement based on their Brexit position.

For Corbin’s move, Scottish Chief Minister Sterling’s “span class=”text-remarks” label=”Remarks”>(Nicola Sturgeon) is very angry, she suspects that the Labour Party wants to let the Brexit Agreement by.

Sturt wrote: I suspect that the Labour Party has apparently refused the Brexit agreement, but acquiesced to the so-called “returning parliamentarians” to make their own choices to ensure that enough votes are passed for the Brexit agreement.

According to the news revealed by the Labor Party headquarters, Corbin’s consultant predicted that tomorrow’s Brexit vote will be passed.

May, tomorrowThe biggest change in the Brexit vote was the assist from the Dead Workers Party.

Can the agreement be passed?

A lot of analysis, let’s take a look at the predictions and the latest odds made by major media.

The Financial Times believes that the vote of the Brexit agreement will be very close, but Boris will eventually lose the vote of the Brexit vote with a weak disadvantage of three votes.

The Guardian believes that Boris will win by 5 votes.

On the other hand, CiceroGlobal gives the results that can be produced in four different scenarios.

First scenario: In addition to the DUP objection, all suspected Europeans, onceLabour MPs who have supported the Brexit agreement, as well as most of the expelled Conservative MPs, will support the agreement — the result is still behind five.

Second Scenario: In addition to the DUP objection, all suspected Europeans, all Labor Partys (out of Kate Hoey ), the Labour Party members who signed the letter requesting the EU to reach the Brexit agreement, and most of the expelled Conservative Party members will support the agreement – the result is 29.

Third scenario: DUP, suspected Europeans, Labor Party, and Labour Party members who have signed a letter requesting the EU to reach a Brexit agreement, most of the expelled Conservative Party members will support Agreement – the result is 51 lead.

Fourth scenario: In addition to opposition from DUP and suspected Europeans, Labour MPs who have supported the Brexit agreement, as well as most of the expelled Conservative MPs, will support the agreement – ​​the result is 55 behind.

From the latest odds, the probability of passing and not passing the agreement is basically five or five, so it is difficult to predict whether the member will pass the agreement, and the probability of passing is slightly larger, accounting for 52.63%.

write at the end

All in all, tomorrow’s vote will be very anxious. At present, it is basically five or five. Even if Boris wins, it will only win single digits.

But even then, this vote has more hope than the first three parliamentary votes of Mei Long.

For Boris, who is hanging all the way, do you think he can laugh at the end this time?

This article is from WeChat public account: British investors (ID: buylondon) , author: William, cover: Oriental IC