Comparing the three cities of Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hong Kong, we can see that the supply structure has an important impact on the market.
Dawan District is one of the three major urban agglomerations in China, and it is also one of the regions with the highest degree of openness and the strongest economic vitality in China.
In 2018, among the 10 cities with the fastest population growth in China, Dawan District has three exclusive ones, and Shenzhen and Guangzhou occupy the top two positions. In the past three years, the major cities in the Dawan District have an average annual increase of about 1.5 million people, because the number of private enterprises in the Dawan District has grown at the fastest rate, driving a large number of employment and housing needs.
But at the same time, the housing ownership rate in Dawan District is the lowest among the three major cities in China. According to the data compiled by the Shell Research Institute, 8 of the 11 cities in the Dawan District have a housing ownership rate of less than 60%. Shenzhen’s housing ownership rate is only 23.7%. The housing ownership rate in Dongguan is also very low. . The housing ownership rate of the entire Bay Area is far below the national average of 73.9%, and nearly 35 million people have no own housing.
The per capita living area of the three core cities of Hong Kong, Shenzhen and Guangzhou is 15 square meters, 19.7 square meters and 25 square meters, respectively, which are lower than the national average of 36.9 square meters (2017). Moreover, the development of the real estate market in Dawan District was earlier, the overall quality of living was not high, and a large amount of improvement demand in the later period has yet to be released.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics (2015), Hong Kong Bureau of Statistics (2017), Macau Bureau of Statistics (2016)
The development of the property market in Dawan District was earlier. In 1987, the first public auction of land in China was ringing in Shenzhen. Guangzhou was the first city to conduct real estate export and market development. Due to different policies, the differences between cities are very large. . Studying the real estate market in Dawan District has positive significance for predicting the development trend of real estate over-exploitation cities and formulating healthy and reasonable long-term policies.
In the “White Paper on the Real Estate Market of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Dawan District” published by the Shell Research Institute, it summarizes several characteristics of the real estate market in Dawan District: strong economic attractiveness, large total real estate market, and considerable increase; Shenzhen, Hong Kong’s housing ownership rate is low, supply institutions are unbalanced, purchasing power is overdrawn; Guangzhou’s property market structure is relatively balanced, and affordable housing plays an important role in stabilizing demand; revitalizing the stock market and finding the “external supply” of core cities, the property market is developing steadily It is important.
According to the Shell Research Institute, by 2025, the transaction volume of the real estate market in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macau will reach nearly 3.7 trillion yuan, accounting for 15% of the country’s overall GMV. among themThe new house is about 1.5 trillion yuan (12% of the national new house transaction), with an average annual increase of 60 billion yuan; second-hand housing is about 2.2 trillion yuan (18% of the national second-hand transactions), an average annual increase of 130 billion yuan. The proportion of second-hand housing transactions will continue to expand, increasing by 5 percentage points to 59% by 2025. Market activity in cities such as Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Foshan and Zhuhai will be further enhanced.
Supply problems in Shenzhen
On October 10, the Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Planning and Natural Resources issued the “Provisional Regulations on Implementing the Housing System Reform in Shenzhen to Accelerate the Supply of Housing Land” (Draft for Comment), aiming to guide the participation of multiple entities, expand supply channels, and secure supply. Various measures such as structure, potential for excavation, improvement of examination and approval efficiency, and strengthening of supervision and assessment, and 11 kinds of land supply channels, accelerate the supply of talent housing, housing-type housing, public rental housing and market commodity housing.
This is another action since Shenzhen proposed to build 1.7 million houses in 2035. Because Shenzhen is the most tense city in Dawan District, in the five years from 2014 to 2018, the resident population of Shenzhen increased by 2.25 million, ranking first in the country, but the new housing supply is only About 240,000 sets, the supply is seriously insufficient.
Despite the future plans for 1.7 million housing supply, by 2017, the land development intensity of Shenzhen has reached 46.7% [land development intensity = construction land area / urban area], far more than 30% of international land development The warning line, the subsequent development is very difficult, and the land supply is facing difficulties.
In the past few decades, a large proportion of the population flowing into Shenzhen has relied on urban villages to solve their housing needs. According to statistics, as of now, there are about 5.1 million sets in Shenzhen, accounting for nearly half of the total stock, housing about 15 million people, accounting for 75% of the total population.
A large number of urban villages and new land supply difficulties make Shenzhen’s real estate market structure extremely unreasonable. Statistics from the Shell Research Institute show that Shenzhen has good quality and clear property rights. The proportion of stocks that can be transferred to the market is only about one-fourth, resulting in a low stock circulation rate, only 0.6% in the past two years, and the stock of international metropolises. The room turnover rate is generally above 4%, and the difference between the two is about 6 times.
Photo: Shenzhen residential structure in 2016 Source: Shenzhen Real Estate Research Center
Fast population growth, economy