Author: Xue Hongyan, the title map is from: Visual China
The impression of Vietnam has always been in the intrinsic label of Southeast Asian tourist destinations. From time to time, the news sees the rise of Vietnam’s manufacturing industry. It is also known that many mutual gold institutions go to Southeast Asia. The first choice is Vietnam, but it is only news.
Break the intrinsic impression, it is best to take a look at the field. Recently, he was invited to participate in the “Ho Chi Minh City Economic Forum” in Vietnam. He was born to see a vibrant city, feel a three-dimensional Vietnam, and put this thought into his pen. Of course, this is not a travel note.
Growth, the source of vitality
The first impression of Ho Chi Minh City is the motorcycle army that is like a car like a horse. There are no traffic lights at many intersections in Ho Chi Minh City. When waiting for the intersection, watching the motorcycle flow like a tidal wave, I have to take the initiative to enter the traffic flow, and cross the other side of the road in the avoidance of each other. In the process, the most felt is a The city’s extensive vitality.
Speaking of vitality, Ho Chi Minh City is far less hurry than the first-tier cities in China. The flip-flops and cafes all over the streets are still the unique leisure of the tourist city, but the feeling of the city is leisure. It is full of vitality.
As a Chinese, this kind of vitality is no stranger: vitality is born of hope, and hope is due to development. Development is the last word and the source of urban vitality.
199In the past year, Vietnam’s GDP has grown at an average annual rate of 6.9% (average of 6.3% over the past decade). As the most developed city in Vietnam, Ho Chi Minh City’s GDP growth rate in recent years (2010-2018) is as high as 9.42%. The economy continues to grow, income continues to rise, and hope and vitality follow.
The most experienced consumer income growth is the employment enterprise. The investigation of Ho Chi Minh City’s inter-institutions generally reflects that the cost of labor in Ho Chi Minh City has increased significantly over the years, and rents have become more expensive. For example, an experienced foreign-funded bank’s grassroots post, the monthly income of 20,000 yuan may not be able to recruit people; and the commercial real estate in a good location, the rent is not lower than the level of domestic North, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen.
It seems to be a bit exaggerated, especially considering that Vietnam’s per capita GDP is only slightly more than a quarter of China’s, and Ho Chi Minh’s per capita monthly income is only about 3,000 yuan. How can the cost compare Beijing’s Shanghai and Shanghai?
In fact, the information reflected by the industry is precisely a silhouette of the imbalance between supply and demand in Vietnam’s high-end resource market. In recent years, foreign capital has accelerated its entry. Vietnamese local talents have been in short supply during extreme times. High-end real estate rents are rising. After high growth, Vietnam has a gap in the supply of underlying resources such as talent education, real estate layout and infrastructure.
From the experience of China, the demand for economic growth and upgrading of infrastructure will in turn drive the economy to continue to grow through the infrastructure itself, and enter a virtuous circle.
Recalling China before 2005, joining the WTO to promote high export growth, manufacturing capacity expansion, power, logistics and other infrastructure supply immediately stretched, in order to break through the infrastructure bottleneck, China has stepped into the infrastructure boom, driving economic growth. New steps.
Vietnam faces a similar window of opportunity. Since the Sino-US trade friction, a large number of Chinese companies have fought in Vietnam, and Vietnam’s foreign trade has made great strides forward. In 2017, Vietnam’s exports totaled US$215.2 billion, up 22% year-on-year, and the growth rate doubled. In 2018, it continued to maintain a growth rate of 13%. From a structural point of view, more than 70% of export products are foreign-invested.
A local friend joked that since the trade friction between China and the United States, every relationship has been accompanied by a wave of Chinese people coming to visit, some of whom will stay, and after repeated several times, a large amount of production capacity will eventually be settled. . According to the data, by the end of 2018, Vietnam had established 326 industrial parks, with a total of 155,000 admission projects, 52% of which were foreign capital.
Accelerated foreign investment has further highlighted Vietnam’s gap in high-end talents and infrastructure. The short-board will drive a wave of infrastructure upgrades, while infrastructure upgrades areThe next stage of high quality development lays the foundation.
Interlocked, the outlook can be expected.
City of the city after the rise of manufacturing: Dream-seeking financial center
The development of manufacturing and infrastructure requires financial capital support. It is necessary to bring together financial capital and build a financial center.
With the existing economic foundation of Vietnam, only one financial center can be developed. Vietnam has a total population of 96 million, 12 million in Ho Chi Minh, and 8 million in Hanoi, Vietnam’s financial center, naturally not the two major cities. Compared with the two, although Hanoi is the capital, neither the population, the economy, and the location conditions are more likely to have potential than Ho Chi Minh.
The theme of the Ho Chi Minh Economic Development Forum is “To develop Ho Chi Minh City into an international and regional financial center”. In the opening speech of the Chairman of the People’s Committee of Ho Chi Minh City, Mr. Qi Chengfeng and the speeches of other Vietnamese government officials, the construction of the Ho Chi Minh International Financial Center It is a must-see, and it is often mentioned in Hong Kong and Shanghai as a learning object and catching up with the goal.
After that, multinational experts discussed the experience of building an international financial center. One detail is that in the agenda of several hours, government officials take notes all the time, and the attitude of learning is respectful and serious.
China has come from reform and opening up. When we learned advanced country experience, why not be hungry, humble and rigorous? Today, Vietnam is also on the road to catch up.
Building a financial center is determined to be second, and its own conditions are the key. The location factor is no longer a word, here is a brief talk about the development of the Vietnamese banking industry.
The type of banking industry in Vietnam is similar to that of China. There are state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, cooperative banks, joint ventures and foreign banks, policy banks and bank cooperatives. From the perspective of asset size, seven state-owned banks (Agricultural Bank, Vietnam Business and Industry) Bank, Bank of Vietnam, Vietnam Investment Development Bank, GPBank, CBBank and Ocean Bank)8%, joint-stock banks accounted for 41%; joint ventures and foreign banks accounted for about 10%; other types of banks only added; from the perspective of profitability, the return on assets was around 0.7%, and the return on capital was about 9%.
According to the data of the Central Bank of Vietnam, as of July 2019, the balance of banking loans totaled 2.29 trillion yuan. In terms of industry distribution, the trade, industry and construction industries are among the top three, which are suitable for their industrial structure.
In addition, the Vietnamese stock market is playing an increasingly important role. The data shows that in 2017, 35% of the funds needed for Vietnam’s economic development came from the capital market; in 2018, the total market value of the stock market was 1.15 trillion yuan, accounting for about 72% of GDP. In the same period, the total market value of China’s A-share market was 47.8 trillion yuan, accounting for only 53% of GDP. From the perspective of investment style, Vietnamese investors prefer big blue chips, and they are used to holding dividends. The atmosphere of short speculation is far less than that of Chinese people.
As far as the depth and breadth of the current financial market is concerned, building a financial center has a long way to go. However, since the entity is financially prosperous, as long as the real economy can continue to grow at a high level, the foundation is solid, and supplemented by top-level planning and orderly landing, the construction of the financial center is not a castle in the air.
As the chairman of the People’s Committee of Ho Chi Minh City said in his opening speech, “Ho Chi Minh City promises to do its utmost to ensure political and social stability, ensure the legitimate interests of investors, and create convenient conditions for financial organizations to stabilize activities in Hu City. We hope to connect Ho Chi Minh City with various financial centers.”
Sincerely, you can’t do anything.
Young people in Vietnam, tomorrow in Vietnam
Since 2015, Vietnam’s manufacturing industry has maintained a double-digit growth rate. The rapid development of the manufacturing industry is inseparable from the support of the labor force. The population of Vietnam is 96 million, the average age is only 29 years old, and the proportion of 15-34 years old is as high as 32.8%.
Vietnamese young people are more engaged in work and life than domesticBalance, 996 does not exist, everyone will have to dine in the cafe bar at night. However, according to some local foreign-funded enterprises, Vietnamese employees are different from other countries in Southeast Asia, and more like China and Japan, they are more responsible and more executive. Only the overall education level is lagging behind the domestic market. After the foreign-funded enterprises come in, they must do a round of targeted training.
From a cultural point of view, in addition to being deeply influenced by Western culture, the Vietnamese people have a high acceptance of Japanese and Korean culture. I went to a local bookstore for a total of three floors. There are many foreign books, English is the big one, followed by Japanese and Korean, and Chinese books are not. The bookstore salesperson shook his head “no Chinese book here” very positively, to consult local friends, and their feedback was also rare in Chinese books in Ho Chi Minh City.
Similarly, Korean restaurants, Lotte Super, Japanese goods boutiques can be seen on the street, and even the four major state-owned banks in Vietnam have introduced Japanese and Korean financial giants as strategic investors. In contrast, Chinese elements are still scarce.
From the economic point of view, I want to be related to the industrial form of capital in Vietnam. China pays attention to the relocation of production capacity and looks at the cheap labor force in Vietnam. Japan and South Korea can focus on the service industry and do something closer. The layout of the people’s livelihood.
In the case of Korea Lotte Group, it has been in Vietnam for 10 years. It has more than 20 branches and employs more than 10,000 people. The total number of customers exceeds 3.5 million, accounting for 3.6% of the total population of Vietnam. Lotte Group has many business lines in Vietnam, such as Shangchao, Cinema, Real Estate and Finance. It is truly integrated into the streets of Vietnam, and Korean culture has penetrated into the life of Vietnamese middle-class and white-collar workers.
In contrast, Chinese companies have entered the country, focusing on manufacturing capacity shifts, and have a lot of contact with blue-collar workers, and with middle-class and white-collar workers. The middle class and white-collar workers are the backbone of social public opinion, and they are the mainstream consumer groups of high-net-worth industries. Chinese companies are alienated from them and they will alienate China. It is difficult to see the traces of Chinese elements in the streets and all walks of life, and there are still many stereotypes about China on the social platform. It is probably related to this.
To understand young people in Vietnam, you need to understand their patriotic education and national complex.
On a pedestrian street in the bustling area of Ho Chi Minh City, there will be free performances on a regular basis. What we saw that day is a stage drama of patriotism. In the deafening music, a group of young people expressed their expression in an impassioned manner. Although they could not understand what they said, they had a kind of appeal.
(Young people open air show)
In the audience under the audience, there are tourists who are curious and busy taking pictures and videos. There are young people who are excited and excited to applaud. Even the old man in a wheelchair is whispering with the person pushing the wheelchair. The past in the history of clouds.
The actors on the stage, the audience in the audience, the passionate music and generous speeches around them, and the young people who are laughing and drinking coffee not far away, constitute a vivid and diverse picture of the nightlife of the city. No words to send, long time can not be relieved.
Young people are really a core reliance on a country’s flourishing development.
still uncertainty
The road ahead will not be smooth, and there are many obstacles to the rise of Vietnam. There are many dimensions. Here is a brief explanation of the infrastructure.
At this stage, infrastructure has become a major obstacle to Vietnam’s economic development. Infrastructure can not be separated from two things, one is the government’s financial resources, and the other is the demolition of land. In China, two things are one thing. The land is state-owned, the land is sold to the local government, and the land acquisition and demolition is also based on evidence. Various infrastructure projects can be built with high efficiency.
But in Vietnam, the land is held by individuals and can be traded freely. The government lacks land sales income, and it is even more unlikely to efficiently requisition and demolition. To improve infrastructure support, it faces great obstacles.
The infrastructure facilities can’t keep up, the flow of resources is blocked, and the consequence of rapid economic development is the accumulation of resources. The overflow of water is not the orderly development of inter-regional echelon transfer in the general sense, but the price distortion of specific regional factors, and accelerate the gap between the rich and the poor, which is not conducive to the formation of the middle class and ultimately affects economic stability and sustainable development. The overall situation.
As far as Vietnam is concerned, the economy has developed rapidly for 30 years, but Ho Chi Minh and Hanoi have not spawned new economic powerhouses. The internal development of the two cities is uneven, and the Huaya and the shacks are mixed, and the cars and motorcycles are in parallel. The road is narrow, the normalization is congested, and the urban development is upgraded. There is still a long way to go.
World Bank experts issued a special report in early 2019, saying that to cross the middle-income trap, Vietnam must maintain a GDP growth rate of 7% to 7.5% in the next decade; and the Vietnamese government plans to become a middle- and high-income country by 2030. In 2045, it is necessary to enter the ranks of high-income countries.
Either way, the next decade will be vital to Vietnam. For Chinese companies, how to better grasp the opportunities of Vietnam’s rise is also worth exploring and thinking.
How the future will be waiting.
Author: Xue Hongyan