This article is from WeChat public account:Economic Observer (ID: eeo-com-cn) , author: Chen Ji ice cover from the visual China
The two forces have enough power to oppose what they oppose, but they don’t have enough power to reach what they support. This is the crux of the current stalemate in the UK.
Boris Johnson is racing against time to race against time.
The British Prime Minister still insists today that the United Kingdom must complete the Brexit before the October 31 deadline, and the British Parliament has passed a bill that stipulates that the Prime Minister must not push “no agreement to leave the EU” This means that he must reach a new agreement with the EU in the few days that has not been left, and it will be passed in the British Parliament.
It seems that this is almost an impossible task.
The facts are indeed true. On the evening of October 22, local time, the British “Brexit” drama ushered in a climax. That night, the British Parliament voted to pass the “Brexit” agreement of Prime Minister Boris Johnson with 329 votes to 299 votes “second reading”, but the members then vetoed a three-day accelerated takeoff by 322 votes to 308 votes. Timetable for EU legislation. This means that the UK’s plan to leave the European Union on October 31 will be lost.
Why is it so difficult for Brexit?
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The most fundamental obstacle is the Northern Ireland border issue, which led to the fall of the Theresa May government.
On October 10, Johnson was in the country house in northwest England with the Prime Minister of Ireland Leo Varadeka (LeoVaradkar) made a two-and-a-half-hour “detailed and constructive” meeting. The two leaders subsequently issued a joint statement saying they might have found a way to the Brexit agreement. This gave the outside world a little confidence and brought great encouragement to the pound exchange rate in the financial market.
However, after a weekend of intense negotiations in Brussels, a few weeks of rare optimism was once again covered by a thick haze. The European Union’s chief negotiator for Brexit, Michel Barnier (MichelBarnier) believes that the UK’s proposal to break the Irish border deadlock lacks details, A single market is at risk of being vulnerable to fraud. On the British side, the Northern Ireland Unity Party (many people call it constitutional crisis) Span>.
In the meantime, the EU has been very cautious, and almost no one has commented on the changes that have taken place in the UK. It can be seen that it is intended to change invariably. It can even be said that the UK has no agreement to leave the EU is now a default option for the EU.
Reversely, even if there is a miracle in these days, the agreement between the two sides can be successfully reached in Brussels. The British Parliament has passed this pass and has to make a big question mark. Anyway, Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbin has announced early that he is unlikely to support any agreement reached by Johnson. Because the current Conservative Party lacks a majority in the House of Commons, any agreement reached by Johnson is indeed easy to veto.
However, once that step is taken, it is inevitable that Boris Johnson will be distrusted in the parliament. Whether his first stage can be saved, and the future destiny of Britain, has become confusing.
For distant Chinese readers, there has been a problem that has not been answered very well for a long time: Why is it so difficult for Brexit? To make a comprehensive and in-depth analysis of this issue, it takes a lot of time. But we can first briefly summarize: The reason why the United Kingdom will step by step to the dilemma of today’s dilemma in the past three years is because the Brexit has seriously misled British voters.
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The European Union’s chief negotiator for the Brexit, Michel Barnier, said in an interview with the BBC in May this year: “British politicians and the media talked about the Brexit agreement and felt it was very quick and easy. This makes me feel very surprised.”
The former French Foreign Minister said that everything is correct. Do not know whyFor a long time, the mainstream trend of the British political arena did not hesitate to think that the process of Brexit itself is like the referendum of the Brexit. It is both simple and completely decided by the British. However, implementing a plan and deciding a plan is not the same thing, let alone the plan involves others.
Even the family member Teresa May was so confident at first. In the first year after her election as prime minister, she made a tough stance many times.
In early January 2017, she was interviewed by the British Sky News Channel for the first time in Brexit. (Johnson’s campaign slogan, meaning “unsuccessful, will become a good”) backwaters, Although it is passive.
The EU does not want to, and does not really regard, the United Kingdom as an enemy, but its vision is not limited to Britain. Brussels has always been cautious in its Brexit issue. However, it is impossible to make too much concessions to the UK. Because if the Brexit agreement is considered a “reward” for the UK, more members will put pressure on Brussels in the future, even if they are just bluffing for more benefits. This is fatal for the EU, which is in the midst of recent storms.
Johnson had previously believed in another scene: there will be more and more countries stepping out of the EU and the EU will be disintegrated, which will make the British Brexit become a game without going through many games. Natural events. However, this has not happened. On the contrary, the EU, which has been arguing for a long time, has shown a magical unity in the face of Britain. On the contrary, it is the British itself. The inside does not inspire the so-called “blitz spirit” that Johnson expects. As we have already seen, it has become a pot of porridge.
For the EU side, a tough Brexit party, such as Boris Johnson, has always dominated the Brexit negotiations, even if it is emotional. It is also more reluctant to give in easily.
Not to mention the smuggling of the EU’s segmental news (many are catching and scolding) that Johnson made in his early years as a reporter in Brussels. Unfortunately, the exaggerated remarks he used during the propaganda campaign during the Brexit referendum in the UK were even more repugnant to European officials.
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Abandon those politicians who cater to and incite populism for political gain, if you think that the British people who support Brexit are notRational and blind, I am afraid it is not objective. I have pointed out many times that the Brexit is very different from the current populist movements in other Western countries, that is, there is no strong anti-globalization sentiment in the UK. On the contrary, many Britons believe that Brexit is to better embrace globalization. They regard Brussels as a shackle, and a great dream to motivate them is that once they are freed from the shackles of Europe, Britain can have the whole world.
Cardiff University (CardiffUniver-sity)Famous Macroeconomics Professor Patrick Mingford(PatrickMinford) believes that the “US-UK Trade Agreement” will be the turning point after the Brexit. He recently wrote that in view of the collective protectionism of the European Union, European commodity prices are 20% higher than the world average. In the future, if US food and industrial products can enter the UK market without barriers, and large suppliers from the United States provide almost unlimited supply of goods to the UK market at the world’s best price, then UK prices will fall sharply, that is, decline. About 20%. According to his estimation, the UK’s annual GDP growth rate will be 4% to 8% higher than it is now because of a free trade agreement with the United States.
Considering what Trump once said, this dream made the Brexit party even more embarrassing.
On June 4 this year, Trump was greeted by Elizabeth II on the first day of his state visit to the UK. He praised the “special relationship” between the United Kingdom and the United States: “This is the world.” The greatest alliance known.” The next day, he said on another occasion that he was preparing a “best trade agreement” for the UK. After the Brexit, the transatlantic trade between the United Kingdom and the United States may be “double or even triple our current”…
These people are involuntarily aware that the president is eager to sign a generous bilateral agreement with the UK. Compared to the bureaucratic cold Brussels, Washington is so friendly!
However, let us first take a cool look at the reality between British and American trade and British-European trade. In 2017, the United States accounted for 18% of UK exports and 11% of UK imports, while the EU The items accounted for 45% and 53% respectively. That is to say, if the future is really to realize the ideal expectation of Professor Patrick Mingford, that is, the United States completely replaces the EU, then the bilateral trade volume with the United Kingdom does need to be what Trump said.Three times. Not to mention that the economic structure of the United States and the European Union is very different (The advantages of the US economy are similar to those in the UK, but also finance, not manufacturing. The latter is the strength of the EU), can the two sides form a perfect complement, even if it can, how much and painful adjustment does this mean for British companies and the entire economic structure?
But the more deadly is not the economic and trade relationship itself. Is it true that the British, who are known for their rationality and wisdom, really believe that the UK can get free from Trump simply by relying on the “special relationship” between the United Kingdom and the United States. lunch? The core of the Trump policy is “US priority.” With all-round strengths of economy, technology and military, the United States is a much stronger negotiator than the EU. If the British feel that they are “losing” when dealing with Brussels, do not know why they feel that they can not suffer when dealing with Washington? Especially in the era of Donald Trump.
Unknown signs have come.
On the way to the UK in early June this year, Trump has drawn a “land boundary” for the future US-British trade agreement negotiations that will definitely trigger a fierce rebound in the UK. He claims that it is possible for both parties to reach an “extraordinary” agreement, provided that the UK’s national health service system (NHS) must be included in the negotiations.
The famous NHS is the benchmark for the British welfare system. It is supported by taxpayers and making it open to foreign pharmaceutical companies is a highly controversial topic in the UK. Therefore, Trump’s remarks immediately met with unanimous opposition from almost all the Conservative Party and the Labour Party’s heads, including Boris Johnson, who had not yet served as prime minister.
If it is said that the one-sidedness of economic and trade relations alone has made it difficult for Britain to resist, and then participate in the serious imbalance in political relations, the United Kingdom, which is out of the EU’s embrace of the United States, will be even more distressed. People are worried that the UK will have to follow the US on every key issue, such as global governance, climate change, NATO alliances, relations with Russia, and so on.
The irony is that Brexit has made Britain less important to the United States, and Britain can no longer support US views and safeguard US interests within the EU.
In the past 70 years, the United States has been an important promoter and ultimate guarantor of European integration. Not only for the UK, but for all European countries, the United States has always been the most important force. Trang now