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The houses in the third- and fourth-tier cities seem to meet the needs of many investors:

First, it is a real estate. After all, it is difficult to find financial products that are as stable as real estate and will not fall sharply;

Second, the unit price is low, and many people who buy a house do not have a lot of money, but the down payment of three or four hundred thousand can still be afforded.

In this way, the 3rd and 4th line houses are investment products that many people can afford and have potential. But is that true?

Do you want to buy a house in a third- and fourth-tier city?

In recent years, house prices have grown rapidly at a rate visible to the naked eye. In the third- and fourth-tier cities, although the city value is less than that of the first- and second-tier cities, it has also increased.

Why is it going to increase? This is related to the policy regulation behind it.

Before 2015, the state went to stock through policy of interest rate cuts and loose purchases;

From 2015 to 2018, the Chinese property market experienced a wave of rounds of rise;

Until 2018, the state proposed that “houses could not live” to stabilize the property market.

The lead is almost a first- and second-tier cities, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen all rising more than 40%;

The increase in the third- and fourth-tier cities such as Dandong, Yinchuan, Guilin, Jinzhou and Mudanjiang did not reach 15%.

In the face of the big rise, the first- and second-tier cities with valuable value such as Beishangguangshen and Shenzhen are in the forefront, and the third and fourth-tier cities with low value are in the final stage of growth.

Short-term investment in third- and fourth-tier cities

Maybe you will say that the current national policy, the regulation of the first- and second-tier cities is very strict, the data does not rise and fall, there is no room for increase.

So will the opportunity not fall into the full third- and fourth-tier cities in the short term?

The real estate investment is also snowballing, but also to find wet snow and long slopes. When we talk about buying a house in a third- and fourth-tier city, we are discussing the following questions:

◈1. The three or four lines that are difficult to understand

As mentioned in the last article, the barbaric growth of the third- and fourth-tier property market is not so easy to understand.

If you don’t understand the city, don’t understand the development path of the city, and don’t understand the folk customs of the city, you won’t know where the house is more valuable and worth investing.

It’s like, you only know that Jiujiang has a beautiful Lushan Mountain. If you buy a house, you should buy it at the foot of Lushan Mountain, but you don’t know that people who actually live in Jiujiang prefer to live in the city center.

Moreover, for those unfamiliar with third- and fourth-tier cities, it is even more difficult to predict what the new planned new district will look like in the next decade.

◈2. Various costs in the middle

How short is short term? Generally speaking, it will not exceed five years. After all, in the 70-city data, the five-year period is still led by the first and second lines.

If the house is less than five years old, it is subject to personal income tax (1% of the online transfer price or 20% of the difference between the two transactions).

If the house is less than two years old, it is also necessary to consider the value added tax (5% paid in full).

Buy at a unit price of 10,000 yuan/m2. Two years later, for example, a 100-square-meter small three-bedroom house sold at 12,000 yuan/m2 is used as an example. The taxes and fees to be paid include:

Deed tax: 1,200,000×1.5%=18,000 yuan

Individual income tax: 1,200,000×1%=12,000 yuan

The house with a price difference of 200,000 has a tax of 30,000 yuan. There is no such thing as agency fees, redemption fees, and so on.

The price difference of 200,000 is still good, because in general, the price of new homes is more expensive than the price of second-hand houses. Maybe you see the price of new homes rise, but the price of second-hand houses does not necessarily increase so much.

◈3. Who is the picker?

When it comes to buying houses on the third and fourth floors, it will also talk about the urbanization process.

The Statistical Bulletin of the 2018 National Economic and Social Development shows:

In 1949, the urban population was only 5,763 million, and the urbanization rate reached 10.64%;

At the end of 2018, the urban resident population was 83.137 million, and the urbanization rate was 59.58%.

The trajectory of population transfer is now two:

The first is from the bottom up.

Probably: the rural area enters the county town, the rural area enters the urban area, the rural area enters the provincial capital, the rural area enters the north and the north and the deep, the county town enters the urban area, and the county town enters the provincial capital.

Second, from top to bottom, that is, high housing prices and high livesThis forced population back.

This is probably the case: returning from the first-tier cities to the provincial capital, the second-tier or even the strong city, such a trajectory.

In the future, the population of third- and fourth-tier cities will be less and less, and the population will be more concentrated in the central area. In the end, you can’t find the property of the pick-up man, and it will become a withdrawal grinder.

The 3rd and 4th lines cannot touch?

The houses in the third- and fourth-tier cities cannot touch? Not necessarily.

If it is just needed, working in the third and fourth line, do you still have to buy a second-tier city nearby?

As a need, it’s a different matter. After all, the house is a necessity for life, especially in the face of education.

Of course, just need to distinguish between the three or four lines where to buy, where should not buy, to see a series of supporting issues, such as school district degrees, transportation, medical care, greening and other issues.

But for investment, our biggest recommendation is not to keep an eye on the unit price and fall into the unit price trap.

In fact, buying 120m2 in the third- and fourth-tier cities and buying 70m2 in the second-tier cities is equivalent, and the monthly supply is the same. However, second-tier cities have a greater chance of winning third- and fourth-tier cities.

结

The risk of buying a house on the 3rd and 4th floors is not as low as you might think. It is very likely that you are investing in a pile of real money, but you are rewarding you with reinforced concrete without any value.

In the future, the property market is in a bad situation, and your funds are likely to be trapped by the third- and fourth-line properties.

If the house price does not outperform the bank interest rate and does not outperform inflation, then it is also a loss.

So, buy a house in the third- and fourth-tier cities, please be careful!