Evergrande has the confidence, but madness may not be true.
Editor’s note: This article is from WeChat public account “Zinc scale ” (ID: znkedu), author Xu Xiaoxin Li Ji.
On October 23, Guangzhou, this city is still in the midsummer, and this night ushered in a sigh. At the moment when the whistle of the game was remembered, Guangzhou Evergrande missed the AFC Champions League final and became irreversible. On the lawn of Tianhe Stadium, the lonely figure, the sweaty clothes, and the word “Hengchi” wrapped in it were still eye-catching.
Just a week ago, the operation of “Hengchi” attracted people’s attention – from Germany, Italy, the United States, France, Japan and other countries, through Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Porsche, Lamborghini and other ho The 15 world-class car design masters of the car brand established the “Hengda New Energy Vehicle Modeling Expert Committee” to provide design for the “Hengchi” full range of models.
As the core leader of this expert group, Xu Jiayin, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Evergrande Group, shouted at a quarterly working meeting at the beginning of the month: The output of Evergrande’s new energy vehicles will reach an annual output of 1 million It has become the world’s largest and most powerful new energy vehicle group in three to five years.
Today, the new energy vehicle market continues to cool down. The competition between domestic and foreign brands is fierce. 15 top experts, 1 million vehicles, and 3 to 5 years dominate the world… Evergrande has the confidence, but madness may not be true.
01 The market is cooling down, is 1 million cars really good to sell?
The dramatic changes in the new energy market environment will be the biggest consideration for Evergrande to realize the dream of the world’s largest new energy new car giant.
“After years of development, China’s new energy auto industry has completed construction from zero to one, from scratch. The market introduction period has basically ended, and the industry has entered a 2.0 phase that relies on the steady growth of endogenous power.” p>
20 on October 25thAt the 19th Global Travel Conference, Lian Qingfeng, deputy secretary of the Beijing New Energy Party Committee, said so.
As he said, for the new energy vehicle market that has entered the 2.0 stage, the competition pattern has changed from the blue ocean to the Red Sea. It is indeed necessary to rely on “endogenous power” to promote steady growth of the industry, but the reality is – – At present, China’s new energy vehicles still rely mainly on policy-driven.
Before, thanks to the huge subsidies invested by the state in the new energy automobile industry, not only does the new energy car companies reduce the cost, but also an important factor for consumers to choose new energy vehicles.
In other words, once the policy changes, the new energy vehicle market will fluctuate accordingly.
Since June 25, the new energy subsidy new policy was officially implemented in 2019. Compared with the 2018 integration, nearly 70% of the subsidies have subsided, and even local subsidies have been cancelled. This directly leads to an increase in the cost of production and sales of car companies, and also increases the costs associated with consumers purchasing new energy vehicles.
As the subsidy policy changes, the sales situation of new energy vehicles has suddenly changed.
According to the data released by the China Automobile Association,
In July 2019, China’s new energy vehicle sales fell 6.9% year-on-year, showing the first negative growth in the past two years. In August, sales of new energy vehicles fell by 15.8% year-on-year. In September, sales of new energy vehicles fell for the third consecutive month, down 34.2% year-on-year.
At the same time that the new energy vehicle market has entered the “bottleneck period” of growth, many domestic new energy vehicle manufacturers have also fallen into difficulties:
We have a huge loss of 22 billion yuan in the past few years. The problems of Xiaopeng, Weimar and Baiteng are serious. The latest data of BYD’s key new energy vehicles shows that sales in July fell 47%, even the original The Shanghai New Energy Auto Show held at the end of October was also delayed due to the collapse of many companies or no money…
He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xiaopeng Automobile, once said, “Removing the data of electric vehicles in China’s new energy vehicles, and then dismantling the data of major customers sold to taxis and travellers, and finally selling the actual sales price below 120,000. The main solution is to dismantle the financial solutions. The remaining data sold to real consumers is only tens of thousands.” The cruel reality of the industry is evident.
In this case, the industry leader Tesla recently announced that its factory in Shanghai has started trial production. According to Tesla’s construction speed, the fastest 2021 can be mass-produced.
At that time, even the 1 million new energy vehicles that Evergrande put into operation in Nansha District of Guangzhou were successfully put on the market. In such a tough market environment, it will face such a strong competitor, there are many cars in front.Is the performance of Evergrande’s new energy vehicle really like Xu Jiayin expected?
The world’s top car stylists will provide styling for the full range of “Hengchi” models
02 Tesla, which is difficult to fight
In front of Evergrande, it is not only the unpredictable change of the new energy auto industry, but also the powerful roadblocker – Tesla.
As the leader in the current new energy automotive industry, Tesla’s advantage is obvious.
If you want to talk about the real core competitiveness, some people think that it is an OTA upgrade system, and some people think it is the leading battery technology, but for this, it is actually a matter of opinion.
When different people choose Tesla, the points they see are different. It can even be said that the signboards of Musk and Tesla are a mystery attraction for some people.
According to the data of the China Automobile Association, in the first half of 2019, among the traditional car companies, the company that sold more than 100,000 new energy vehicles in China had only BYD, and the sales volume was 145,700. New energy auto companies have sold more than 50,000 vehicles, including SAIC New Energy, Beiqi New Energy and Geely New Energy. Tesla’s cumulative sales in the first half of this year was 158,200, ranking first.
After the sales figures, it is an important issue that all new energy auto companies cannot avoid, that is, mass production capacity. You can’t let the car function, shape, and technology blow, but if there isn’t a strong factory behind it to stabilize the quality of the product, it’s a piece of paper.
Tesla currently has two super factories, one in Nevada, USA, covering an area of 13.6 million square feet.
Although ModelS and ModelX batteries are imported from Japan, ModelS, ModelX and Model3 are assembled at Tesla’s manufacturing facility in Fremont, but this super factory still carries Model3’s batteries, car battery packs, and traditional systems. And the production of two energy storage products Powerwall and PowerPack.
As for the other, it is a super factory in Shanghai that has been undergoing trial production in the near future.
The entire construction process of the plant took only 168 working days. Musk predicted that by the end of this year, the Tesla Shanghai Super Factory will produce at least 100 per week.0 cars, this is the target production that the Nevada factory took several months to complete.
It’s worth mentioning that in Tesla’s third quarter earnings report for 2019 and subsequent calls, Tesla mentioned the details of the plan to build a super factory in Europe and said it might be in 2021. Put into operation.
As a result, Tesla’s global mass production capacity will be a stunt. This is undoubtedly a major enemy for Evergrande to become the world’s largest and most powerful new energy vehicle group.
But Tesla spent a few years breaking through the mass production capacity. Can Evergrande really be completed in three to five years? Xu Jiayin wants to achieve the “change lane overtaking”, where is the bottom?
03 The capacity of the ground is escorting new energy?
Hengda dares to fight with Tesla, a factor that cannot be ignored is the solid backing of real estate.
Xu Jiayin once defined the company’s territory: “The industrial structure of Evergrande has been shaped after so many years of exploration. The future is based on real estate, with cultural tourism and great health as the two wings, and the industrial layout with new energy vehicles as the leader.
However, this backing is being tested by the regulatory authorities, and financing tightening has become a problem that every real estate company has to face.
In May this year, the China Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the “Notice on Carrying out the Work of Consolidating the Governance of the Corruption and Promoting the Compliance Construction”. Yinbao Supervision and Development [2019] No. 23, opened a new round of supervision, real estate The financing channels have been gradually tightened, and all kinds of funds have been strictly checked into the real estate sector through misappropriation, transfer and other illegal and illegal ways.
Sun Hongbin recently said frankly: “Sunac is in the unprecedented situation of financing tightening.”
Hengda has carried out several rounds of financing before the financing channel tightened this year. Among them, the US$2 billion three-issue notes issued on April 8 were divided into 9.5%, 10.0% and 10.5%, which is better than the high-quality enterprises. The loan interest rate is more than doubled.
After that, there is no financing plan.
The total debt of Evergrande is 1.57 trillion yuan, and the net debt ratio is 151.94%. Under the pressure of repaying debts, only relying on self-healing to continue cash flow, price reduction promotion has become an important means of survival.
The promotion effect is obvious: Evergrande announced that the sales amount in September was about 83.11 billion yuan, an increase of 73.8% compared with the previous month.It increased by approximately 31.9% in the same period last year, refreshing the Group’s monthly sales record.
The consideration was that the average selling price was reduced to 10054 yuan / square meter, down 4.3% year-on-year.
Xu Jiayin requested in the internal meeting on October 7: “We must over-complete the sales task of 600 billion yuan this year in advance. At the same time, we must ensure that the sales payment in the second half of the year will be 280 billion yuan and strive for 300 billion yuan.” >
The reason why this is so urgent is because of the huge investment in new energy vehicles.
On June 11, 2019, Evergrande announced that it will invest 160 billion yuan to build a new energy vehicle base in Nansha District of Guangzhou. On June 15, it announced that it will invest in Shenyang 120 billion yuan to build a new energy vehicle. Batch of major projects.
In just a few days, Evergrande will sell 280 billion gambling new energy vehicles.
Earlier, Evergrande spent tens of billions of dollars to buy and buy Swedish NEVS, Koenigsegg, Japan Carne, British Protean, Guanghui Group and other companies.
Not to mention the hiring of the top automotive designers in the industry, the establishment of Evergrande Automotive Research Institute, which recruits 8,000 people worldwide, and it costs a lot.
Before, FF has burned 14.5 billion yuan, and Weilai has lost 22 billion yuan. According to public information, the financing scale of China’s new car-making forces has reached nearly 200 billion yuan.
There was so much money burned, the effect is well known.
Thus, Evergrande’s real estate business is highly indebted, financing is not easy, and whether it can continue to deliver blood for the new energy vehicle program or provide financial protection, you have to ask a question mark.
This test Xu Jiayin’s ability to balance reality and dreams.