This article is from WeChat public account: bipolar property (ID: earthabglobal) , author: bipolar analysts, the subject map from: Eastern IC
Many countries do not like to count or publish official data on residential vacancy rates.
For example, most Asian countries except Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Africa, Europe, Switzerland, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Northern Macedonia, Albania, Moldova, Ukraine, Belarus, Russia, Bipolar analysts No official statistics on residential vacancy rates were found.
In the folk statistics, bipolar analysts have discovered many interesting phenomena.
For example, AREA in Thailand has proudly stated in the report that there is no bubble in the apartment market in Bangkok, and the vacancy rate is “only” 21%.
What is this statement equivalent to?
Equivalent to the May 19th Tencent Real Estate Research Institute to tell you about that paragraph.
By sampling by netizens, China’s housing vacancy rate is generally between 22-26%, and the vacancy rate of 30% is a reasonable level for China.
There is a sad core behind the comedy. ridiculous! sad!
At the same time as the emotions, the bipolar analysts have vaguely noticed something wrong.
Snowland, Pennsylvania, is the 8th highest in the United States in 4118 with 41,702 zip codes. A depressed abandoned mining area, where the vacancy rate is only 22.9%.
There is a certain bubble in the apartment market in Bangkok, but the overall market is prosperous. If the vacancy rate of a Bangkok apartment is comparable to that of an abandoned mine, we must not approve it.
After that, what is wrong with it?
manipulated vacancy rate
Not long ago, Jones Lang LaSalle published a report claiming that the housing vacancy rate in Metro Manila in the Q2 quarter of 2019 was only 2%.
Although it is not uncommon for Zhonglian to measure unreliable data, this data has refreshed the three views of bipolar analysts.
Although it is impossible to tell the actual data, in comparison, Colliers International’s data released earlier this year is more reliable: the overall vacancy rate in the Manila metropolitan area was 10.6% in the fourth quarter of 2018.
The same market, the time difference, why the difference between the statistical results will be as high as 5.3How many times?
The root cause behind this is that there is no uniform standard for housing vacancy rates around the world.
Take European examples, Austria, Spain, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg and Portugal. Although there are public vacancy rate statistics, they have not published their statistical methods and definitions of vacancy rates.
In the UK and Belgium, housing that is vacant for more than six months a year is considered vacant. In the Netherlands, houses that are vacant for more than three months a year are counted as vacant.
In a single country in the United States, there are three major factions in vacant statistics.
For example, a 295,000-sample “American Community Census” is surveyed each month. The definition of vacancy is a house that lasts less than 2 months per year, or is inaccessible to the owner for 3 consecutive months during the investigation. housing.
As a compulsory authority census, this vacancy rate standard is much lower than in other European countries.
The US population-housing vacancy survey only surveys 72,000 samples per month, through machine calls and manual visits. The definition of vacant housing is that this house is the daily residence of the household.
As a voluntary survey, the sample of the survey itself has already caused serious interference with the results.
The US Department of Housing and Urban Development’s statistical receipts, each year depending on the budget, about 60,000 addresses were included in the survey.
For the estimated volume of the US$138.45 million property, the volume sample is actually very limited.
In the subdivision of vacant years, Japan has a breakdown of vacant segments of up to 11 intervals, ranging from less than one month of vacancy to five years of vacancy.
In this case