Article from WeChat public account:曲高和众(ID:m15875), author: Mengqing Xiang, from FIG title: Oriental IC

In 2014, I met in China. At that time, the mobile phone business department said that our mobile phone market share can achieve 15%, which is a big achievement. It is not good anymore. As for why it is not good, there is no discuss.

Who can think of the latest statistics, Huawei’s market share in China is as high as 41.2% (including glory), equivalent to the peak of Nokia Market share during the period. Huawei’s mobile phone market share is still growing rapidly. Due to the saturation of the mobile phone market, the change cycle has been lengthened, and the market has shrunk. In addition to Huawei, all mobile phone sales have fallen sharply.

Huawei may not be aware of it. To make him so powerful, I will try to explain it. By the way, there is absolutely no meaning of Hua Bing, mainly to explore the truth of business.

First, the mystery of market share

The fact that it is commonplace, the average person does not ask the reason behind it. For example, why is the market share of the restaurant industry not going up?What? Haidilao is the largest restaurant in China with sales of less than 20 billion. It has a market share of less than 0.5% in China’s 4 trillion restaurant industry. How can mobile phones achieve such high market share?

In the late period of the functional machine era, the cottage machine was very brilliant at the time. Why did the intelligent machine era basically disappear without a trace?

Someone has studied the issue of market concentration. In the 1980s, Michael Wave described the book “Competitive Strategy” and proposed a concept, a naturally dispersed industry and a naturally concentrated industry. The most typical industries in the so-called natural dispersion are restaurants, barber shops, law firms, and consulting agencies. Naturally concentrated industries include steel, automobiles, and so on.

There are many factors that lead to market concentration. The core factor is the scale advantage. That is, large-scale enterprises have the characteristics of low cost and high quality. Big fish eat small fish. In competition, small-scale enterprises At a disadvantage.

Industries that lack concentration factors are often more fragmented. In fact, the most important factor in market dispersion is the objective diversity of products or services. When I published the “Mountain Revolution” in 2009, I have used this theory to predict the consequences of the disappearance of the cottage in the smart machine era (Lei Jun has always considered his price war Eliminated the cottage machine, this is not right, in fact, the cottage is mainly destroyed by the industry law) .

Because the functional machine is potentially more diverse in appearance than the smart machine. At that time, the appearance of the smart machine was confirmed, that is, a square screen, and the rest of the shapes could not effectively compete. If the cottage machine cannot find a market segment in such a market, it will lose its living space.

In one place, creatures follow the same rules, because organisms also need to compete for survival resources. If two species or multiple species of a species compete for the same resources, the unfavorable traits are eliminated by competition. In the Galapagos Islands, Darwin discovered that the homologous tits have very different cockroaches. The specific shape of cockroaches has a certain advantage in eating specific foods, which inspired evolution.

Do you know what it is for?

Useful, this principle allows you to predict the trend of business competition. For example, in the era of intelligent machines, trying to be a cottage is not a well-known choice, and will eventually pay for this behavior that violates objective laws. There are a lot of people trying to grow bigger in a naturally dispersed industry, and there is no special means, and it is basically impossible to succeed. Businesses that prove unsuccessful are costly. If you know ahead of time, you have a competitive advantage. (Do not easily deny the school, really read something, useful)

Back to the issue of smart phones, the situation of the largest particles has become clear, that is, the lack of shape diversity, functional diversity is achieved by users installing different software, and has nothing to do with mobile phone manufacturers. An industry that lacks diversity will certainly have a high degree of market concentration.

Second, Huawei has inadvertently challenged a business rule

On August 16, 2011, Xiaomi released the first mobile phone with high-priced low-cost online sales. This incident led to a major reshuffle in the mobile phone industry.

Later, the millet offensive was extremely fierce.

At the time, the smartphone market was just getting started, and the market was dominated by Apple, Samsung, HTC and so on. Domestically, there are four major manufacturers in China, which rely on the supply of low-end mobile phones to operators. The market share is around 10% to 14%.

Small rice with low price, online sales model moved everyone’s cheese, are very anxious, but can’t find any way. Because, First, the cost of network direct sales channels is at least 20% lower than that of ground troops. Mobile phones from other manufacturers are not capable of lowering the price to the level of Xiaomi. If you switch the ground channel hard to the network, afraid of shock. Second, traditional manufacturers are wary of online sales and hype, and they feel that they are not sure.

Different choices from different vendors are the hallmarks of the differentiation of mobile phone manufacturers.

HTC did not dare to participate in the price war of thousands of yuan for two or three years, directly out of the market. Lenovo, ZTE, Coolpad, etc., although they are all preparing to sell cost-effective mobile phones on the Internet, they are not determined, they are not effective, and they end up in a hurry.

Huawei is also very entangled. At that time, it had no brand. Although it had a market share of about 10%, it was all low-end ODM. Huawei’s cost structure and technical capabilities required it to go to the high end. However, the low-end encounters the mode of Xiaomi, Huawei is very entangled. It is also afraid of not being able to make online sales, so low prices can not afford Huawei’s cost.

The situation at the time was to follow the millet price war and find death. Don’t follow, wait to die.

Huawei still has a tangled feeling. At that time, it was produced by a high-end machine, a high-end machine and a low-priced machine. Will it pull each other, Huawei is completelyno guarantee. According to the general business rules, the price difference of a product produced by a manufacturer cannot be too large.

Tangle for two years, can’t manage so much, dry! At the end of 2013, Huawei’s glory mobile phone was launched, and it was hard to start Xiaomi.

Later, Huawei’s high-end machine got it, and the glory was made. As a result, Huawei’s mobile phone (including glory) has become the most widely covered vendor in the price range, which is the high market share of Huawei mobile phones today. The rate has buried the foreshadowing. Because the price segment of the smartphone segment is the most important segmentation dimension.

Everyone can’t look at a little story that I am understatement. Challenging the price segment’s rules is Huawei’s most crucial step. At that time, I was completely unsure, but under the survival instinct, I was forced to go out. In fact, this is also the characteristic of Huawei’s decision-making. Between waiting for death and finding death, always choose to find death. He has a well-regulated side and a side that is not superstitious about business rules.

If:

HTC also tried this strategy. While participating in the thousand-yuan smart machine war, while doing high-priced machines, it would have an advantage.

Samsung also participated in the thousand-yuan war and will not be driven out of the Chinese market.

Xiaomi is not obsessed with the price/performance ratio. Like Huawei, it is very likely to get a profit series with the potential energy at that time. It is much easier to fight. Lei Jun’s judgment on the mobile phone market has always believed that the cost-effective model will kill the market and get a monopoly. In fact, he did not have a humble observation of the market and over-reliance on the trend of subjective judgment.

OV is too superstitious that Apple’s single model goes to the world, mimicking Apple, and actually uses Apple as the midrange machine for Apple. In the following years, the sales of OV flagship machines have pressured Huawei’s dual flagship. If OV also engages in sea tactics at the time, the scale advantage caused by market share will be magnified.

But, calendarHistory has no assumptions. Huawei challenged this rule and succeeded. Huawei became the biggest beneficiary. In the past year, OV launched a low-price series to protect the market, but the timing has been missed.

The mobile phone sold by Huawei today is not a folding, not a Porsche. The price of the model is close to 8 times to 10 times. The Huawei mobile phone covers all price segments, various colors, suitable for both men and women, and all ages. It is a miracle.

Three, climbing strategy

Huawei has mastered one of the core strategies of industrial products, which is the climbing strategy. Starting from a slow understanding of the market, understanding the needs, and getting products, once the products, channels, sales, and speculations are fully understood by Huawei, he will launch a crushing offensive strategy.

Mobile phones are no exception.

Although Huawei has to sell points and the like, it does not pursue a single breakthrough. In this way, the comprehensive advantages he constructed, the various elements are interdependent, the opponent is difficult to break, and few people have such a comprehensive attack.

So, I said before. Who is Huawei, who is dead; who is learning Huawei, who is dead. This is the mode of thinking that I have recently advocated in Daxie.

Four, Trump Advertising

Huawei is very good, but growing so fast, you still have to rely on Trump’s advertising effect. When I was training, a boss told me that we can reimburse employees for mobile phones, but they can only reimburse Huawei mobile phones.

There are quite a few mobile phones that use (not channels, not operators). This part of the user Trump effect is very obvious.

V. The ultimate market share of Huawei mobile phones

How high can Huawei’s mobile phone market share be in China? Huawei itself shouted 50%. I think it is more than enough. Personal consumer goods are different from Huawei’s carrier equipment. In the latter case, the customers are very concentrated, and the operators will not let a market share be too high in order to prevent the store from being bullied.

Consumer goods are different. Many people tell me that their whole family uses Huawei mobile phones. What does it matter? Very dispersed